The Vaal Outside track has an eight race card today. Punters usually have to weigh up form against draw bias here as the standside is usually favourable and those caught on the inside of horses often struggle.

Very high draws ensure a standside rails run. However, from anywhere else it is difficult to predict where the horse will end up. Jockeys are aware of the superior going on the standside and even seemingly well drawn horses who like to run handy or in midfield can sometimes be continually shuffled inward.

A horse who has everything in his favour on the day is Lakahal, who runs in the sixth over 1000m. She has good pace plus a kick and from a perfect draw in the gentle hands of Andew Fortune she will likely stay all the way to the line, unlike last time when fading from 200m out over 1200m from an unfavourable draw.

Fortune should have a good day.  In race two he rides Mexican Sun, who was staying on steadily over 1200m on debut after being left a bit flat footed as the leaders went for home. He will relish the step up in trip here to 1400m and is drawn on the right side.

In the third Fortune is also drawn perfectly on the speedy Linda Honey. The form of her last race over this 1000m course and distance has worked out well and from a plum draw Fortune could steer her to a start to finish victory.

In the first race the likely outsider Oblivion has a plum draw of nine in a ten horse field and his best recent run was over this trip. He used to stay on well on the Vaal sand and has done the same recently from handy positions on the turf. He could be finishing strongest of all and this might be the key in this weak field.

Another interesting runner on the day is Tales Of Mambo who runs in the seventh. She impressed with her turn of foot back in March when winning a race on the Greyville poly over 2000m. Since then she has been one paced in the finish and her saddle also slipped once suggesting she was too strong in the running. A drop in trip to the 1600m of tomorrow from a good draw might be what she has been looking for as this will allow her to sit in behind and use her good turn of foot again.

Also interesting is the Australian-bred Choisir gelding Hard Ball in the fourth race over 1200m. He started 3/1 on debut but faded out and has been gelded since. He looks a nice type and has a good draw against a weak field so could make amends.

The fifth is a tricky race and Dragon’s Breath has been selected after being merit rated only 61 after beating a weak workrider’s maiden by six lengths. He didn’t start well that day so could make it a double if jumping on terms, although his draw of nine is tricky. Oculus has a plum draw here with Gavin Lerena up and he is dropping in class. His merit rating has dropped to an attractive mark. The course and distance is suitable too and everything points to him bouncing back to form.

Lerena could win the last race on the in form Analyse This. This five-year-old goes well for Lerena and is well drawn over a suitable distance. Shot has a plum draw and as a handy type who prefers further he could plug on into the places.

David Thiselton