The Vaal has an eight race card on the Standside and as usual the draw will be a factor as the Standside going is usually favourable, or at least the jockeys tend to go to this side which often makes it tough for low drawn horses.
The most interesting horse on the card is Kostya Zu, who runs over 1200m in the sixth, a MR 72 Handicap. On Saturday he ran over 1200m on the Turffontein Inside track in the Gr v3 Spring Spree Stakes and finished 6,5 lengths behind the exciting Kangaroo Jack. He was 9kg under sufferance so on paper ran below his handicap mark in comparison to Kangaroo Jack taken that over 1200m 1kg equals half-a-length. However, the latter was running off a capped merit rating, having been awarded a maximum six points after his facile Gr 2 Post Merchants win, and proved it by winning ever so cosily. Kostya Zu also had to jump from a high draw and was reined back in the early stages. He was not persevered with in the closing stages so could have got closer. Furthermore, his form includes a 7,5 length fifth to Carry On Alice over 1100m when receiving 7,5kg. Tomorrow is his third run after a rest, he jumps from a fair draw and is in the handicap for a change. He comes from the Coenie de Beer yard of Equus Champion Sprinter Talktothestars and like the latter will run shoeless. De Beer has a small string but keeps a high strike rate, which this season is around 18% (two winners from eleven runners). The danger to Kostya Zu could be the topweight Ronin Warrior. He started awkwardly over 1000m on the Turffontein Inside track when disappointing last time. He might prefer returning to a straight course. He had shown in his previous two starts over 1200m and 1000m at the Vaal that he has good pace coupled with the ability to kick on in the final stages. He will need to use both assets in order to overcome his unfavourable number one draw. Three-year-old Master Boulder produced a fine run first time out the maidens over this course and distance when a 1,5 length third in a Novice Plate. He proved there to be up to, if not better than his 80 merit rating, considering he ran at level weights with the winner, who was merit rated eight points higher than him, and all of the second, fourth and fifth placed horses were merit rated higher than him. He is a big runner on paper, but on the downside he has a low draw and this race has more older horses involved than he faced last time.
The best bet suggestion is Jackman in the fourth race, a Maiden over 1200m. This is a nice looking horse with a long stride and he ran on strongly over 1160m at Turffontein last time to only just fail. He now has a favourable high draw and does not have much to beat, unless the Australian-bred Baudelaire, who makes his debut from a plum draw, proves above average.
The value each way bet suggestion of the day comes in probably the most open race of the day, the last, which is a MR 67 Handicap over 1400m. Intandokazi is reunited with Raymond Danielson, who remains an underrated jockey, who has an astute tactical awareness. He also has an affinity with horses and learns quickly how best to ride them. Danielson rode this big horse in his penultimate start from a similarly tricky draw over this distance on the Vaal Inside course and after holding him up he flew through for a 1,75 length third to Awesome Adam, who franked the form by winning next time out. Danielson will likely attempt to hold the horse up until he has found a favourable spot behind horses on the standside and with a similarly strong finish will have a chance.
In the second race, a maiden over 1600m, Rubybay has those to have run beaten on form and has a favourable draw. However, there is a well-bred first-timer involved, the Irish-bred Cidada, who is by none other than world leading sire Galileo and is a half-sister to the Gr 2 Premier Trophy runner up from 2009, Vision Of Grandeur. However, the record of Galileo’s Southern Hemisphere runners falls way short of his Northern Hemisphere runners and it is also concerning to see a 1,5kg claimer aboard first up, although she does have a plum draw.
In the first race over 1200m Lily Love is a form choice, but the question is whether she can overcome a low draw, but she does have champion workrider Sam Mosia aboard so is still tipped to win at the expense of the moderate Chinese Whisper, who has a plum draw and proved last time when placed second over this trip that she could win a race of this uninspiring quality.
David Thiselton
