The Vaal has an eight race card today on the Classic track where only the first two races over 1000m will be down the straight. The high draws have been favourable down the straight on this course.
The highest rated race will be the second, an interesting Graduation Plate over 1000m. Three classy up and coming sorts look to have it to themselves and they are difficult to separate both on form and at the weights on official merit ratings. The draw might be the best way to separate them and thus the vote goes to the three-year-old Sean Tarry-trained Seventh Rock colt Red Rock. He would probably prefer 1200m but in his final start as a two-year-old in late June he flew up after a slow start to only just fail to beat Speedy Gonvarlez in a handicap over 1000m at the Vaal off a 92 merit rating. The latter has gone on to win another handicap over course and distance in easy fashion, while two unplaced horses in the Red Rock race, Just Africa and Jade Bay have also gone on to win.
Red Rock is 0,5kg better off at the weights on official merit ratings with the Mike Azzie-trained stablemates Rivarine and Roquebrune and is tipped to mow them down late. Rivarine, a three-year-old by Var, displayed his pace in the Gr 1 SA Nursery over 1160m when only just failing to lead from pillar to post. The brilliant Cloth Of Cloud was the horse which caught him in the shadow of the post. In the current fast conditions it would be no surprise to see the others failing to catch him. Roquebrune is a four-year-old gelding by Var and this long-striding sort looks to have plenty of class as well as pace. He is having his third run after a layoff of over six months and his second run as a gelding, so it would also be no surprise to see him win either, although he has to overcome the toughest draw of one by trends. Tour Of Duty, who is 3kg under sufferance with Red Rock, looks held by Roquebrune on their meeting over 1200m last time. Ronnie Rocket is in good form and is course and distance suited but is 7,5kg under sufferance with Red Rock on official merit ratings.
The best bet on the card could be Anna Pavlova in the fourth race, a maiden for fillies and mares over 1450m. She will relish the step up in trip and under Gavin Lerena from draw two this hard-knocking, progressive sort should run all the way to the line. French Legend looks to have plenty of scope for improvement too. On her debut over 1200m she moved up well and looked the winner before being caught late. It is a concern that she hasn’t run since that race on June 23, because she didn’t find extra late in that race and this is now 250m further, although she does have Pierre Strydom up from a good draw.
The value bet could be in the last race, a MR 64 handicap over 2000m. The Tarry-trained Jet Master gelding El Bombero is lightly raced for a five-year-old and has caught the eye in a number of his starts. He has a nice, long stride and was seen to run on strongly over 1450m last time out. In his only attempt at this trip he stayed on well to finish just 3,1 lengths behind Bankable Teddy back in December in the maidens and the latter went on to win the Listed Derby Trial and is now merit rated 96. El Bombero now has his third run after a rest and is drawn well in five with Gavin Lerena up. The three-year-old Dawn Assault also looks likely to relish the step up in trip and he represents the in form St. John Gray yard so looks the chief danger.
In the meeting opener, a Maiden over 1000m, a fantastically bred Mike de Kock-trained colt, Springhills, makes his debut. He is by Redoute’s Choice out of a Gr 1-winning New Zealand-bred sprinter by Volksraad, although he was passed through the ring at AUS$90,000, failing to make his reserve of AUS$100,000. However, he does not face a vintage field and has a plum draw of ten under accomplished apprentice Callan Murray. Mind Shade has been knocking on the door and will possibly be able to overcome his tough low draw with his good pace, while the same can be said of Edgbaston, who does not have much luck with draws. Two fillies who could earn are Pipkin, who is well drawn, and The Great Duchess who can produce a strong finish so will likely be dropped out from a low draw.
The hardest race on the card could be the seventh, despite it being a maiden. It is a weak 2000m event and a number of runners will have to be included in all of the Place Accumulator, Pick 6 and jackpot. The De Kock-trained The Red List looks the obvious choice on paper. She is well bred being by Gr 1 Irish Derby runner up Golden Sword out of a Muhtafal mare who finished just a head behind the Horse Of The Year Winter Solstice in the Gr 2 weight for age Drill Hall Stakes over 1400m. She should also enjoy the step up in trip having stayed on well over 1600m last time. However, that was in a weak field and she has made breathing noises in both of her career starts to date, which is a concern. She also has a tricky draw of nine to overcome.
David Thiselton
