The Turffontein Inside racecourse has never been an easy one for punters and most of the nine races at tomorrow’s meeting are of a competitive nature which will make it doubly tough.
However, this invariably increases the risk to reward ratio in the exotics and leads to open betting markets offering plenty of value.
One value bet on the day could be Nero, who runs in the fifth, a MR 64 Handicap over 1600m. This Gavin van Zyl-trained seven-year-old Modus Vivendi gelding was running off a 77 merit rating a year ago and is now down to a 61. Last time out off a 63 merit rating in a 1400m event on the Standside track he was bumped while making his run and subsequently had to be switched inward so could have finished a touch closer than a 2,7 length fourth.
Interestingly, that was his first run without headgear for over three years and it saw a good performance over too sharp a trip. The form of that race has worked out well too. He will enjoy the step up to 1600m and is drawn in pole position off a merit rating dropped by another two points. The Van Zyl Highveld satellite yard had a winner last weekend which could have signalled a kick into a higher gear after a slow start to the season. Nero’s rider Marco van Rensburg is in good form and has had seven winners in September at a strike rate of over 15%. However, it is a very open race and most punters will probably be looking to go wide in the exotics in this leg.
The best bet on the card comes in the first race, a Maiden over 1200m. The Stanley Ferreira-trained Bold Silvano colt Bold Coast made a smart debut over this trip at the Vaal when running on well to split two decent sorts in an event which had looked beforehand to be a match race. He is drawn well in three with Craig Zackey retaining the ride. There are three first-timers in this race and they could pose the main danger. Of these the Sean Tarry-trained Tilbury Fort is by Horse Chestnut out of a six-time-winning sprinter by Restructure called Colleen, who has produced four winners from six runners to date.
The Corne Spies-trained Surf’s Up is by Kahal out of a Manshood mare who won twice in Zimbabwe from 1600-1800m and has produced four winners from five runners, including Gr 3 Kenilworth Fillies Nursery runner up Florist Rose and the Cape Town sprinter-to-1400m filly Lola Bud, who had a career high merit rating of 86. Tendre is by Dan De Lago out of an Al Mufti placed maiden, whose two runners to date from four foals have both been poor. Of the others to have run Rock And Roll made a fair come back from a layoff of over a year to finish just 4,7 lengths behind Bold Coast and should have come on from that run. Call To Battle was backed to 13/10 favourite last time over 1160m at Turffontein, but after showing good cruising speed he faded tamely and was reported not striding out.
He should be given another chance but now has a wide draw to overcome. Time To Be Great’s best run was over 1000m and he has led in his last two over 1400m and 1450m respectively. He only just failed in the former of these races, so he should enjoy the 1200m trip from a fair draw, although he is no superstar. Mumster showed some zip on debut before fading. He should strip fitter and could possibly earn from draw two. Flying Russian showed pace over 1400m on debut in May before fading so will likely appreciate the step down in trip. Devious Xandre has been exposed as moderate.
The highest rated race on the card is the seventh, a Conditions Plate for fillies and mares over 1450m. The best weighted horse on official merit ratings is the Sean Tarry-trained Intergalactic. She would prefer further, but as one who is effective over a mile she should enjoy this trip running fresh and should go close with just 52kg on her back from a plum draw of two.
However, the tip to win is She’s A Dragon, who is officially 2,5kg under sufferance with Intergalactic. Only good horses win by eight lengths a she did over 1400m as a two-year-old in a Juvenile Plate. She proved her speed and class in her next start when receiving only 1kg from the year older Silver Class and giving her a two length beating. That start, last November, followed a four month layoff, so also proved she enjoys running fresh. She went on to finish a 0,8 length third in the Gr 1 SA Fillies Classic, showing her versatility. Tomorrow she is drawn in pole, which is a further bonus to her chances, and Ryan Munger, who rode her to fourth in the Gr 2 Gauteng Fillies Guineas, is aboard. The SA Fillies Classic and SA Oaks winner Juxtapose is 3,5kg under sufferance with Intergalactic and will find the trip too sharp, but her class could pull her through and she is tipped to finish third behind the aforementioned pair.
Joan Ranger, who finished an excellent third in the Gr 1 City Of Pietermaritzburg Sprint last time out, is the highest merit rated horse in the race and at the weights ias only 0,5kg under sufferance with Intergalactic. She has tended to over race in races beyond sprints, although this hasn’t stopped her from running into the places. She will probably go to the front from a wide draw and if settling will be in with a chance. Persian Rug has some class and this giant of a horse should be coming into her own now being a daughter of Ideal World. Her last win was over 1600m so she is interesting with first time blinkers on over this trip but her wide draw is a concern and she is also officially 5kg under sufferance.
David Thiselton
