Don’t be scared to banker Fortissima

PUBLISHED: 23 September 2016

joe soma

The Turffontein Inside track has another competitive nine race card tomorrow and punters can look forward to some attractive dividends. The stand out horse on the card is the Joe Soma-trained Fortissima, who runs in the eighth race, a MR 76 Handicap for fillies and mares over 2000m.

This four-year-old Fort Wood filly ran to about a 96 merit rating when finishing a 2,25 length second to the top class Juxtapose in the Gr 2 SA Oaks in her penultimate start. However, the rules allowed for a maximum five point raise, so she will run off only an 82 merit rating tomorrow. Her subsequent run in the Gr 1 Woolavington 2000 can have a line drawn through it because she had to take evasive action to avoid a horse which had gone wrong.

Soma always expected her to be better as a four and five-year-old. He confirmed she had duly strengthened and matured over the winter and will be aiming her at bigger events during the season. He said, “She is carrying a big weight (62kg) and is coming back from a rest (172 days) but she is very classy, we have always rated her highly, and in this field she should be classy enough. Don’t be scared to banker her in all bets.” She is drawn well in five and Gavin Lerena is up. Sultry could be the main danger, although faces a tough task as an experienced three-year-old running off a 79 merit rating.

The highest rated race on the card is a Pinnacle Stakes event over 2600m. Storm Warning looked to have enjoyed a perfect preparation into this year’s Gold Cup but was then excluded from the final field. He is the fourth best in at the weights tomorrow on official merit ratings, but has a plum draw of two over a suitable course and distance. Coltrane is the joint best in at the weights. His form suggests he is better on galloping tracks, but he should make his presence felt from draw four with Strydom up.

Elusive Flyer has twice gone close over course and distance. In November last year he gave Fortune Fella 1,5kg and lost by 0,6 lengths and is now 4,5kg better off. In his last start on August 27 he gave Penteliko 4,5kg and lost by 1,75 lengths and is now 3kg better off. He looks to have a chance here, despite officially being 4kg under sufferance with the best weighted horses. The Elmo Effect beat Elusive Flyer over course and distance last time by 1,25 lengths and is now only 0,5kg worse off, so also has a good chance, although he has a tough draw to overcome.

Penteliko is by Go Deputy so will be coming into his own now as a four-year-old. He came from last when winning last time so can be dropped out from his wide draw. Kingmambo’s Legacy has only tried a staying trip once, at the beginning of last year, and finished a close third over 2450m. He will be coming into his own now being by Ideal World and should now relish this sort of trip. He is officially 3,5kg under sufferance with the best in. The mares Kissimmee and Coby are the joint best weighted horses on official merit ratings together with Coltrane and they only have to carry 52kg and 50,5kg respectively.

Coby gave Elusive Flyer 5kg and a 4,85 length beating the last time they met over 2450m and represents the in form Gary Alexander yard. She has a fair draw of five under in form Lyle Hewitson, so looks to have a shout, although further back in her form Storm Warning beat her comfortably twice, including over this course and distance. Kisseemee has only ever taken the boys on once in a staying trip, over 2450m, and Storm Warning and Elusive Flyer have her measure on the form of that race.

However, she is drawn in pole, so can’t be ignored. Pyramus and Talbec both looks held at the weights. Fortune Fella would probably prefer a more galloping track and the weight turnaround with Elusive Flyer makes it tough. The selection is Storm Warning to beat Colrane, with Coby, Elusive Flyer and  The Elmo Effect next best, although it is hard to leave Penteliko, Kingmambo’s Legacy and Kisseemee out of the Pick 6.

The last, a MR 58 Handicap over 2000m, is another nightmare for punters. However, Bird Alley is the choice despite a wide draw as she was surging at the finish over 1800m last time at the Vaal and should relish the step up in trip.

In the second over 1200m Sierra Redwood caught the eye running on over 1000m on debut so will appreciate the step up in trip and is drawn in pole. Soma described his first-timer in this race Devadip as a nice horse, but added he might be green from a wide daw and he would prefer further in time.

In the third race over 1450m, Soma said Turn Back Time had been doing well and had improved from her last start but the draw would be a concern. Fingers Crossed caught the eye last time, in a fair maiden over 1200m, as one who would enjoy this trip and is well drawn with Strydom up, so she is tipped to beat Turn Back Time.

In the fifth race, a MR 81 handicap over 1600m, Dealer’s Charm, who looks a nice type, has been lowered one point and has snuck into the handicap with the minimum weight. Last time out over course and distance he had to be dropped out from a wide draw and ran on well from last.

Significantly he is now well drawn and can turn for home closer to the pace so is chosen to win. Soma is preparing Old Oak Tree for a tilt at a big ready To Run Sales race so is not too concerned about him being 2kg under sufferance.  He said he had been working well and with Muzi Yeni up from pole position he expected him to be competitive.

David Thiselton