Craven will start at short odds for his handicap debut at Kenilworth today and it will be a shock if he gets beaten.
This is the horse that Andrew Fortune has already committed to riding in the Cape Guineas and Derby and who was backed down to 1-4 at Durbanville three weeks ago when he won easing up with the former champion blaming himself for a bad ride.
Fortune cried off his mounts early yesterday – he wasn’t feeling well – and Brett Crawford wasted no time in snapping up Richard Fourie.
First time out of the maidens is notoriously tricky but Crawford says he has no concerns on this count, reasoning: “I think he is above average.”
A nine draw shouldn’t stop the colt and his opening 85 handicap mark is not excessive (last Saturday’s winner African Night Sky, who won on debut, was put in at 83), particularly as Fortune stopped riding 100m out and eased him before the line.
So, can anything beat him? The sahorseracing computer has him dead-heating with The Slade but One Direction (who the computer says will only finish fifth) could be a bigger threat. His record is similar to Craven’s and Justin Snaith said he could be a Derby horse after last time’s win.
Gyre was put up 1.5kg for his neck defeat of Mega Secret and is now a kilo worse. That was 35 minutes after Craven’s win and, perhaps significantly, Gyre’s time was half a second slower.
Crawford should also win the All To Come Graduation Plate with Whisky Baron who runs for the first time since failing to get the trip in the Winter Derby. He was beaten less than half a length by Marinaresco in both the Winter Guineas and Winter Classic and that is outstanding form. According to the adjusted ratings he is a racing certainty with eight lengths in hand.
True, he has not raced for four months but his trainer says he has few worries about this, adding: “This will be his first run since being gelded and he is working very well.”
But, while the ratings and weights say Newlands has no chance of beating him, this is a smart sort who was good enough to take third in the Langerman. “He is not rated to win but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him do so,” says Joey Ramsden, adding: “He is a huge big horse, he has been cut and he will run well.”
The computer is predicting a major upset, showing Lineker first past the post even though he was scratched last week. Ignoring that administrative cock-up, it has Lord Marshal as its next best but it shows Whisky Baron only fifth and Newlands trailing in last.
Michael Clower
