Handicaps are handicaps and as in the seemingly mindless pursuit of a white ball, some players perform above their rating, others only show their true rating when there are big prizes up for grabs. There is also the odd ‘off-day’ where no matter how hard you try, the rhythm is just not there so it’s best to enjoy the scenery rather than wrap an expensive stick around a tree in frustration.

Ten Gun Salute (Nkosi Hlophe)

In horseracing, unlike golf, you don’t have 18 holes – or four days – to hack yourself into the right mindset and charge on the final holes. Tomorrow’s Gr1 Vodacom Durban July will come together in two minutes where a year’s planning can unravel in a matter of strides and where skill and luck in running are needed in equal measures.

The handicapping of the three-year-olds has been a major talking point, many pundits believing that they are well in compared with their older counterparts. However, the handicappers are well paid to do their job and if they have got it wrong I don’t think it would be by too far so one must take their assessment at face value.

So where to next? All have their favourite jockeys, the three at the top of most people’s list are Anton Marcus, Piere Strydom and Anthony Delpech, all multiple winners of this race so their experience is invaluable. Delpech is tied to his Wilgerbosdrift/Mauritzfontein sponsorship so Nightingale was a given. That’s not to say that she’s without a chance but I’m thinking that given an option Delpech may have looked elsewhere.

Marcus had the choice between The Conglomerate and Edict Of Nantes. The Conglomerate is only 0.5kg worse off on last year’s winning weight but Marcus has been aboard at his last two starts and rather plumed for Edict Of Nantes and a starvation diet. That in its self tells a story, notwithstanding that the colt is the ruling ante-post favourite.

Justin Snaith was quick to snap up the services of Strydom for It’s My Turn and in his own words, “Piere Strydom is his biggest asset.” Handicapper Lennon Maharaj is of the opinion that if the handicappers have erred it would be with It’s My Turn. Speaking to colleague Michael Clower he said, “I personally have always felt he was a bit under-rated on his Cape Derby win. He has only gone up a point since last year’s July and he is a year older.” Add Strydom to the mix and you have a potent cocktail.

Edict Of Nantes #VDJ2017 Gallops

Conspiracy theories and if’s and but’s aside, form underpins every horse’s performance. Edict Of Nantes, Al Sahem and the filly Safe Harbour have by far the best form of the three-year-olds and consequently head up the ante-post market. But as D-Day approaches there has been steady money for the older horses in the form of Ten Gun Salute, It’s My Turn and Black Arthur. The latter two have been largely quiet over the season although their true ability is not in question. In early interviews Snaith looked to be leaning the way of Black Arthur but as he said, “There are lots of big races in the winter season but really this is the race we all want to win and you have to sneak into the race off the best weight that you can.”

On the other hand, Duncan Howells had his hand forced when Ten Gun Salute finished tailed off in the Drill Hall with a pulled back muscle and the Betting World 1900 was make or break. The race was the making of Ten Gun as he came from near last to win in convincing fashion. The 2200m trip holds no fears and in Muzi Yeni he has a rider who knows no fear. Yeni replaces stable rider Keagan de Melo as the connections felt that Yeni got on better with Ten Gun and victory would be sweet as the pair were well fancied last year.

One can carry on dissecting the form from all angles and still be none the wiser and probably more confused, but for me Ten Gun Salute’s 1900 win was the best July warm-up and before I change my mind again, he is taken to win from It’s My Turn, Black Arthur, Edict Of Nantes and the filly Safe Harbour.

By Andrew Harrison