A lottery best describes next Saturday’s Gr1 Vodacom Durban July. The weights are muddling, add tough draws for some fancied runners and an even spread of money, this is a race for the fabled ‘Dream Lady’ of years past. Put simply, there are few if any no-hopers in the line-up.

The ante-post market generally points to horses with obvious chances but with 13 of the 18 runners quoted at odds of 20-1 and less it is an indication that even the bookmakers, with their pipeline to information, are clueless. At 66-1, Saratoga Dancer is the longest priced runner in the field so bookmakers are not even risking a brave punt.

Many will be banking on Anthony Delpech having chosen the “right one”. The four-time July winning jockey has had the pick of Justin Snaith’s strong quartet as well as Dean Kannemeyer’s pair of Solid Speed and Mambo Mime and has plumed for Snaith’s filly Bela-Bela.

Being the only grey in the field and favourite to boot, she will attract much of the ‘mug money’ so her tote odds may be misleading. That aside, she has done little wrong but she does face a difficult task from gate 3. She has the substantial presence of French Navy on her outside and Triple Crown winner Abashiri on her inside while apprentice Lyle Hewitson on Dynastic will not be taking any prisoners from his inside gate. Bela-Bela may well end up the meat in a sandwich when the gate is pulled, a position that could be exacerbated if the early pace dissolves and the race degenerates into a sprint for home.

French Navy (JC Photos)

Trying to marry Merit Ratings with a conditions ‘handicap’ will always throw up anomalies given the handicap ratings of any given season and they came to the fore this year. Sean Tarry, using Legal Eagle as king maker, manipulated the weights to help the chances of French Navy and in doing so there are only five runners starting off their correct handicap weight. A consequence is that all the sophomore colts, barring Triple Crown winner Abashiri, are lumped on 55,5kg.

Given the handicap ratings, excluding Abashiri, there should be 2,5kg between the top rated three-year-old males and those at the bottom, but one can pick holes in some conspiracy theories, many blown out of the water by Legal Eagle’s defection.

Justin Snaith ducked the Daily News 2000 with Black Arthur given that a win would boost his weight for the July but the Legal Eagle saga popped that balloon. Worryingly Black Arthur was boiling at the July gallops after a break of nearly two months and the move to skip the Daily News 2000 may have back-fired given that the balance of the field are racing fit. A wide draw will also have knocked some gloss off his chances but with multiple Hong Kong champion jockey Dougie Whyte flown in for the occasion he will have a vastly internationally experience pilot aboard.

Abashiri July gallops (Nkosi Hlophe)

Abashiri stalked the paddock like a well-oiled machine at the July gallops and was faultless in his work. However, Mike Azzie’s runner has had a long Highveld season culminating in a lung-bursting finish to the SA Derby.  Abashiri’s lofty handicap rating sees him shouldering a record 59kg for a three-year-old and after his Derby heroics he could find next Saturday a race too far.

So where does that leave us? Tarry has studied the charts, avoided the shoals and plotted a faultless course for top weight French Navy. He was doing his best work late in the recent Gr1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge without being unduly punished. The race was over a distance short of his best and which every way you look at it; French Navy will be firing come the final two furlongs.

Mac De Lago was promoted to first in the Gold Challenge, but possibly confirming Weiho Marwing’s opinion that he may have been stretching his charge too far early in his career. That puts a question mark over the gelding’s ability to see out a genuine 2200m but Marwing has his charge superbly fit. “He has to be if he is to see it out,” he commented during the week.

So just how good are the three-year-olds? Bela-Bela has proved that she is top of her class in the filly’s division but she faces males for the first time and the only real pointer to her chances is Delpech’s decision to partner her ahead of some smart males.

Bela-Bela (Nkosi Hlophe)

Delpech was aboard Black Arthur in his July gallop so he will have a fairly sound idea as to where he stands and a swing in the betting either way could be telling.

Samurai Blade and Rocketball finished on top of Abashiri in the SA Derby and are now in receipt of 3,5kg. All indications are that Abashiri is a far superior galloper and should be giving 5,5kg if the ratings are correct, but I have my doubts.

Daily News 2000 winner Rabada – if he takes his place – and Samurai Blade are rated the equal of Black Arthur and that begs a question of Black Arthur’s rating given Snaith’s reluctance to run the colt in the Daily News.

Three that did run in the Daily News were Investec Derby winner It’s My Turn, Mambo Mime and Ten Gun Salute.

It’s My Turn strikes me as the best of the Snaith runners as he will not be stopping while both Mambo Mime and Ten Gun Salute were putting in their best with the Daily News all but over. Ten Gun Salute in particular will relish the extra furlong and with a plum draw at 9 could prove the pick of this trio.

Local pundits got their first view of Tekkie Town Winter Guineas and Winter Classic winner Marinaresco at the July gallops. He is not the biggest specimen but has everything in the right place. He also gave the impression in his gallop that he does not like to be beaten having given his working companion plenty of start at the top of the straight before putting his ears back and fighting for the lead.

Mike Bass’s runner was impressive when winning a slow-run Winter Classic, showing an excellent turn of foot, and if predictions of a slow pace prove correct his 18 draw could turn into a blessing as Grant van Niekerk should be able to avoid the usual early scrimmaging.

Victory would also be fitting for Bass as this will be his final July before handing over the reins of his yard to his daughter Carol.

One can go on forever as every time one peruses the form, more questions arise. But in the final analysis French Navy has had a traditional prep. Ten Gun Salute, It’s My Turn and Marinaresco have impressed but I could be way off the mark – a lottery it remains!

Andrew Harrison

Latest ante-post betting on the R4.5million Gr1 Vodacom Durban July to be run over 2200m at Greyville on Saturday, July 2:

9-2 Bela-Bela, 11-2 Black Arthur, 6-1 French Navy, 15-2 Marinaresco, 9-1 Solid Speed, 10-1 Abashiri, 12-1 It’s My Turn, St Tropez, 16-1 Master Sabina, Mambo Mime, 20-1 Mac De Lago, Rabada, Ten Gun Salute, 25-1 Rocketball, The Conglomerate, 33-1 Dynamic, 40-1 Samurai Blade, 66-1 Saratoga Dancer.

The Vodacom Durban July has never lost its magic and former leading lightweight rider and now South African Jockeys Academy riding master Paddy Wynne is one who can vouch for that.

Wynne won the July on the Gail Thompson-trained Jamaican Rumba in 1982 and is still stunned by the instant celebrity status he receives upon non-racing people learning he has won the big one.

When conversation turns to Wynne’s former profession, the ignorant are usually too polite to ask direct questions, but he said, “Somebody would then walk past and say ‘no but he won the July’ and they just can’t believe it. They ask how it felt and normally have a memory of the July I won such as their mother backing the winner because he was grey etc. The reaction wherever you go is just something else.”

Wynne also spoke of the weeks of physical, mental and tactical preparation which goes into the race and of how in the end the result almost seems pre-ordained.

Wynne started grabbing attention as a lightweight rider in the late 1970’s when given a chance by the great trainer Herman Brown Senior. Brown gave him his first July ride in 1979 on Bold Monarch, who had finished runner up two years earlier. Bold Monarch finished unplaced and Wynne had to wait three years for his next July ride.

He recalled a prerequisite for the Jamaican Rumba ride was the promise to make a full commitment six weeks before the race. The first jockey approached was in fact the great Michael “Muis” Roberts, but Roberts had many options at that stage and couldn’t commit.

Wynne was prepared to commit and immediately began a strict diet, as Jamaican Rumba was set to come in with a featherweight.

He rode the horse every single day in work until the race.  Wynne said, “He just got stronger and stronger and I remember sharing this with newspaper man Jack Ramsay and he ended up tipping him.”

Jockey Billy Harvey knew Jamaican Rumba well, having won the Dick King Stakes on him as a three-year-old (today known as the Daily News 2000).

Jamaican Rumba was still a colt and had “a mind of his own”. Harvey told Wynne the grey would not be caught if turning for home in front, but if he was taken on in the running he would “throw it in.”

Wynne planned his pace-making strategy from a long way out. However, his biggest concern was a Johannesburg horse called St Tropez, a known front-runner.

He recalled the moment he heard the announcement of St Tropez’s scratching. The horse had apparently stood on something upon walking off the float on July day.

“I was sitting in the jockeys room and I couldn’t believe it. Now I didn’t have to worry about him. It was as if it was just meant to be. I had also won the first race of the day on an Alistair Gordon-trained horse, so my confidence was now up too. I weighed 46,5kg stripped down that day, but felt strong as I had dieted properly.”

Picture: Jamaican Rumba (julyhandicap.info)

Wynne took Jamaican Rumba, who carried 48kg, straight to the front from a draw of eleven in the 16 horse field and his carefully calculated plan unravelled perfectly. However, there was a lot more to it than he would admit, and this can be confirmed by current Summerveld trainer Frank Robinson.

Robinson was a schoolboy at the time and working for the Thompson yard was his first job in racing. He said, “Paddy’s biggest asset was his judgement of pace. He was also a very loyal jockey and a fine judge of a horse on the training tracks, he knew when a horse was ready.”

Wynne slowed the pace up and recalled Felix Coetzee among others screaming at him to get on with it. Wynne said, “The more they shouted the more I slowed it up.”

He is still mystified about why nobody took him on. He said, “Felix was boxed in so couldn’t get out but the others probably thought I was on a no hoper who would come back to them. But they should have realised the slow fractions. I recall even watching people walking on the sidewalk at the 1000m mark, that was how slow I was going.”

Wynne continued, “There is a particular spot at Greyville, between the 500m and 450m mark, and if you can go from there on a horse who still has plenty left they won’t catch you.”

Jamaican Rumba duly kept on finding and despite the nearest challenger Sweet Wonder famously attempting to bite him he crossed the line half-a-length clear.

Robinson recalled Thompson being a shrewd trainer, one who would lay a horse off for months with a target in mind and such had been the case with Jamaican Rumba, whose unplaced runs in both the Republic Day Handicap (today’s Betting World 1900) and Clairwood Champions Stakes (today’s Rising Sun Gold Challenge) in the build up ensured his feather weight. He also recalled Jamaican Rumba being owned by bookmaker Harold McLean Robertson, who would arrive at the yard for regular meetings to discuss the July. Robinson learnt at these meetings they were pouring money on the horse. However, the victory still came as a surprise to him and he recalled it to be a “surreal” moment.

The infamous “dream lady” supposedly made her first public appearance the following week. This mystery lady had apparently been tipping the July winner year after year based on her dreams and the story, fact or fiction, reached its zenith when an old lady was apparently sighted walking into a Tattersalls with a suitcase in order to collect her Jamaican Rumba July winnings.

Today sees the announcing of the final field and draws for the 2016 July at a ceremony at Greyville, which is to be televised live on Tellytrack at 20h15.

Wynne’s recollections tell the story of just how long the road is to July victory, so the strong reactions to barrier position draws today should be quite understandable.

David Thiselton
Picture: julyhandicap.info

The racing community were shocked and saddened yesterday to learn just days before the Vodacom Durban July of the death of Jack Ramsay, a doyen of racing journalism and passionate about the sport to the end.
Although Ramsay was the ripe age of 94 he was still active. He was diagnosed with cancer a couple of years ago but up until then used to cycle and swim virtually every day. Even after the diagnosis he was a regular at the races and would watch from the old press rooms. He wrote reports from there for Sapa at least up until the age of 90.
Ramsay, born in Durban in 1921, watched his first July in 1936 and the only ones he missed since were when serving in the war. He had an acute knowledge and was thorough in his pre-big race analyses. This can be summed up by his coverage of the 1972 Cape Guineas as the Racing Editor of The Mercury.
The Natal pair In Full Flight, trained by David Payne, and Sentinel, trained by Joe Joseph, met ten days before the event over 1400m at Kenilworth and In Full Flight only just got up by a short-head. Ramsay travelled down to the Cape and followed the pair’s progress in the final week.  He reported in the Mercury of February 3 that of the two Sentinel had made the greater improvement since leaving Natal. Furthermore, Joseph had told him Sentinel had needed the 1400m run when narrowly defeated by In Full Flight.
However, he reported In Full Flight to be moving just as magnificently on the training tracks. He added Payne had told him the horse had improved considerably since that last win, while also pointing out how much courage he had showed to win the race.
Ramsay, wrote that the betting, in which In Full Flight was 5-4 favourite and Sentinel only third favourite at 7-1, was misleading. The astute scribe elaborated by reporting he had not been impressed with the way the second favourite, the Highveld raider Derrymore, had travelled as he had got off the float sweating profusely and had looked a lot lighter than when he had seen him winning the Dingaans.
Having watched the participants working on the Thursday, Ramsay concluded in his Friday article, “On form and on their appearance the race should rest between the two Natal colts In Full Flight and Sentinel and the indications are that if they do dispute the finish there will be very little between them.”
He couldn’t have been more accurate as the pair raced to a thrilling dead-heat the next day.
Ramsay would not hesitate to tip the favourite if he believed it to be worthy. For example, he correctly predicted Igugu would win with a bit in hand in 2011.
The public therefore sat up and took notice if he went against the main stream. For example, Ramsay correctly tipped the relatively unfancied Jamaican Rumba for the 1982 July after quantifying jockey Paddy Wynne’s advice of the horse’s continual improvement in training.
Ramsay could be quite hard hitting and having grown up in a day in which a road crossed the course at a crucial point in the Greyville straight he had little sympathy for latter day protesting jockeys.
He loved tradition but was not bothered by the affect a narrowed track would have on the country’s premier race and simply said, “The July will always be the July.”
Ramsay, as recounted in an article written by journalist Mike Moon, watched his first race meeting from the Scottsville car park at the age of eight. Ramsay’s father used to be in charge of the gatekeepers at Greyville and by 1936 Jack had begun helping count the admission fees.
The following year he backed his first July winner, wagering ten shillings on 40-1 shot Ballyjamesduff, who was the fancy of a navy fleet officer attending a dinner party at the Ramsay home.
In the war he was in the Coastal Command and became skipper of a torpedo boat and was later given command of a corvette.
On returning to Durban he started writing about racing for Britain’s “Sporting Life” and subsequently landed the job of Racing Editor at the “Rand Daily Mail” in Johannesburg. He was on the Mail for two decades, on occasion also covering racing for the “Sunday Times” and the “Sunday Express”. Later, he was appointed the Transvaal racing clubs’ official timekeeper on top of his writing job.
Jack returned to Durban in the mid-1960s as Racing Editor of “The Natal Mercury”, a position he held until his official retirement in 1986, although that was far from being the end of his involvement in racing.
His son Stewart was Racing Editor of the Daily News for decades.
Jack renewed his love of seafaring while Mercury editor, skippering ocean-going craft and taking parties of anglers out from Durban harbour to the deep-water fishing grounds. Then flying caught his interest and he obtained a pilot’s license, bought his own light plane and competed in the State President’s air race.
Jack was a life member of Gold Circle, having been possibly the longest-serving member of the old Durban Turf Club.
He regarded Harold “Tiger” Wright as “probably the best jockey he saw, although also gave special mention to Michael Roberts, and he rated Terrance Millard as the country’s greatest ever trainer. The best ride he saw was Lester Piggot’s win at Scottsville on The Maltster, who lost some 15 lengths at the start.
Secretariat was the greatest horse he saw. He was there to see this legendary horse’s incredible Belmont win.
He rated Illustrador as the greatest July winner he had seen, although his admiration for Mowgli always shone through.
A minutes silence was observed for Jack at yesterday’s Vodacom Durban July final field announcement and draw ceremony. His funeral arrangements have not been finalised yet.
Jack Ramsay and his unlimited enthusiasm for the Sport Of Kings will be sorely missed by all in the industry.
David Thiselton