If it wasn’t for World War II the Merit Rating system that attracts mixed feeling out here today might never have existed.

Dick Whitford, regarded as the father of modern handicapping, was the chief officer of a British patrol ship during the war and whiled away the long hours of inactivity in his cabin creating a universal handicap of all racehorses in Britain.

He had little inclination towards the sport, but after a chance meeting with the sports editor of the Daily Telegraph, returned to sea armed with copies of annual form books and began to examine the results, plotting charts to link the horses and create evidence that racehorses were “almost exactly figurable”. Each horse acquired a row of ratings based on the best three or four runs out of seven and it became evident that on this basis horses were astonishingly consistent.

It dawned upon him that he would get nowhere without a broad outline of the racing spectrum from the best horse to the worst. He thus set about creating a single composite handicap of all the runners of 1941. Every horse was included with no special sections for two-year-olds, stayers or sprinters.

There were enormous complications and he confessed that he would not have continued had he not “kept making fascinating discoveries – groups of horses that meshed with each other with astonishing precision.” He achieved his goal by Autumn 1942 and to prove its worth translated the individual ratings into race ratings for current racemeetings and sent his predictions to the Daily Express and Raceform. They worked out “exceptionally well”.

In the meantime the legendary Phil Bull, who made a fortune out of betting on horses and  helping others do the same, had been doing very well since 1938 with a horseracing time ratings service he provided, which he then followed in 1943 with an equally successful annual book called “Best Horses”.

Bull had a mathematics degree and said that race times were meaningless unless the conformation of the track, the state of the going, wind strength and direction, and the pace at which the race was run was taken into account.

He developed a technique of calculating the real value of the time performance by mathematically assessing all the times recorded at a particular racemeeting after referring to the statistical analysis of previous times recorded at the same track. His time rating service was by mail order and with six winning years in the first seven, he was able to advertise  a profit of 23p for every one pound bet.

Whitford had started correspondence with Bull during the war and when it ended they arranged a meeting at a Newmarket racemeeting. It was the first time Bull, who didn’t suffer fools galdly, had met a kindred spirit and he invited Whitford to be his assistant on his Best Horses book.

The pair spent the summer going to the races, visiting stables, studs and sales rings and watching gallops, while Whitford did his handicaps in his spare time.

The book was compiled over the winter with Whitton producing the facts and figures and collecting photographs and Bull doing the writing.

Bull was regarded as one of racing’s finest ever writers, but by this time had all the symptoms of writer’s block. He fell behind in the mammoth task and the deadline for Best Horses was seldom met.

In 1947 an exasperated Whitford devised a shorthand version of Best Horses which included brief comments on all of the horses of that year together with his own form ratings and Bull’s time ratings. Bull immediately saw its market potential and so Timeform was born.

The Timeform Ratings were arrived at by co-ordinating the time ratings of Bull and the form ratings of Whitford and are today regarded as the definitive measure of racing merit.

Whitford left the business in 1949, but by 1962 the company published Timeform every week, Race Ratings for all races and Timeform racecards for all meetings, Flat and National Hunt, as well as producing the very popular annual book Racehorses which began in 1949.

Previously, the task of creating a comprehensive running handicap had been defeated by the fact that horses improve over time.

But Bull simply took the horse’s inherent merit and subtracted the Weight-For-Age allowance to arrive at a real rating, known today in South Africa as a “net rating.”

The Merit Rating system used throughout the world today is indebted to Whitford and Bull.

David Thiselton

Featuring Paul Lafferty and Budgie Byrne

Andrew Bon chats to Pat Cummings

Andrew Bon chats to Laura King, Malan du Toit and Pat Cosgrave

Andrew Bon chats to trainer Mike de Kock in the lead up to the 2017 Dubai World Cup

Andrew Bon chats to trainer Bob Baffert in the lead up to the 2017 Dubai World Cup

Bob Baffert said he is delighted with Arrogate’s condition at Meydan Racecourse on Monday after the favourite for the Dubai World Cup worked for the first time under the watchful eye of his trainer.

Arrogate completed a breeze of around 800 metres under work rider Dana Barnes with his dual World Cup-winning handler looking on, having flown in to the UAE on Sunday.

A few hours later Baffert also oversaw a similar workout by Hoppertunity, who placed third in last year’s World Cup.

When asked whether Arrogate had taken the long journey from California in his long, raking stride, Baffert said: “He’s handling everything really well. He looks good to me.”

Baffert added of Hoppertunity: “He has been training better than he ever has, he really loves it here.”

Arrogate was declared on Monday under regular partner Mike Smith, while Hoppertunity will once again have Flavien Prat as his guide. The pair spearhead a large American contingent that includes Gun Runner, Neolithic and Keen Ice.

Overall, 14 horses will compete for a cut of the US$10 million (Dh36.7m) in prize money on World Cup night on Saturday, and the UAE will be represented by Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 winner Long River, Move Up, Special Fighter and Furia Cruzada.

Mubtaahij, last year’s runner-up, will represent South African-trainer Mike de Kock in the line-up, as will four Japanese runners: Lani, Gold Dream, Apollo Kentucky and Awardee.
– TheNational.ae

Betting for the Dubai World Cup to be run over 2000m on Saturday [Mar 25] at Meydan:

1/3 Arrogate; 8/1 Mubtaahij; 10/1 Gun Runner, 14/1 Hoppertunity, 25/1 Neolithic, Special Fighter, Keen Ice, 33/1 upwards the others

Turffontein Inside track stages an eight race meeting on Tuesday and punters will need to tread wearily.

Saturday’s racing proved that this particular course can throw some upset results, although the form of the maiden events stood up well and should do so again.

Made To Conquer has been scratched from the third, a maiden over 1600m, where he looked the proverbial certainty, and this has played into the hands of the Johan Janse van Vuuren-trained Student Grant. The latter caught the eye running on over 1450m last time and has a good draw over a step up In trip he will enjoy.

It’s A True Story ran well over 1600m last time, but visually he did not make as much of an impression as Student Grant did. Furthermore, Student Grant has It’s A True Story held on paper on a formline through a horse called King Of Mani. On formlines Huhi could be a threat, but he has a wide draw to overcome. Student Grant is thus selected as the best bet on the card and as a Pick 6 banker as no other horses in the field make any appeal.

There should be some value to be had about Cat’s Whiskers in the second race, a MR 68 Handicap over 1200m for fillies and mares. She jumped from the worst draw of all, the number one draw, over 1400 on the Vaal Ouside track last time so did well to finish a 4,3 length fourth to the progressive My Friend Lee. She was thereabouts at the 400m mark before plugging on gamely, so is interesting from a good draw over a step down in trip. Little Swift has pace and the ability to stay on, so will be a big runner here too if able to overcome a tricky draw of seven. Gavin Lerena is up which is an obvious bonus.

The fifth race has a possible Pick 6 banker in Simply Royal, but as it is her first run out the maidens only the brave would go that route. She is beautifully bred being by Silvano out of the Dingaans winner Royal Fantasy (Al Mufti). She looks the part too and on debut, despite breaking through the stalls, she swept through the field from last to win going away by 3,5 lengths over the 1200m at this course.

The concerns are her inexperience and she also over raced on that debut when being reined back, which creates a question mark about the trip. However, once she had cover she relaxed very nicely and on pedigree she should relish the step up in trip.

The topweight Silver Class is interesting in this race as she has been far from disgraced running exclusively in features and plate races this season and she now runs in a handicap off a lowered merit rating. She is also well drawn over an ideal trip. Comme-Ci-Comme-Ca has caught the eye recently in a stronger class and is another one who is interesting back in a handicap over a suitable trip, although her wide draw makes it tough. Samarra’s recent form over this trip is good and the blinkers are off after she disappointed over 1000m last time, so she can’t be ignored from a good draw of two.

Eternal Spring impressed on debut and is worth another chance after her disappointing second start, although that was after a layoff. She does have a tough merit rating though compared to Simply Royal.

David Thiselton

South African Mike de Kock enters Saturday’s Dubai World Cup meeting with a select team of two headed by Mubtaahij (IRE), runner-up in last year’s $10million Dubai World Cup sponsored by Emirates.

He is joined on the card by the talented but thus far wayward Fawree (USA) , who will hope to emulate his illustrious stable companion by winning the Group 2 UAE Derby sponsored by The Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group.

Runner-up on his racecourse debut, in a 1400m maiden on the Meydan dirt, at the end of last year, he missed the break on that occasion and did well to finish second.

Well away two weeks later, he was never headed in a 1600m maiden but, again, was not the best behaved at the stalls.

Disaster was to strike on Super Saturday when, as hot favourite of the Al Bastakiya, he broke out of the stalls at the same moment the field were set on their way, unseating Bernard Fayd’Herbe in the process.

“The stalls had always been an issue with him,” said De Kock. “We had done an awful lot of work with him ourselves, as well as involving the starter, Shane Ryan, and his team so it was a bit disappointing.

“We know he is a serious horse and we hope a genuine UAE Derby contender so we reached out to South Africa’s leading equine behavioural therapist, Malan du Toit.”

Unorthodox perhaps but the evidence is that the move has reaped dividends and, last Friday, Fawree passed his Stalls test with flying colours.

Du Toit explained: “He is a lovely horse and has been a pleasure to work with throughout. He was a bit insecure to begin with but improved on a daily basis to the extent that we can now load him without a hood and he is happy to stand in the stalls.

“Importantly, the handlers who will deal with him on Saturday were on hand and everything went perfectly.”

Fayd’Herbe, who has been involved throughout and ridden the horse in both completed starts as well as on Super Saturday, will again be in the saddle.

De Kock added: “Bernard has done an awful lot of hard work with the horse and Christophe Soumillon certainly understands the situation so is more than happy.”

However, Soumillon will be aboard Mubtaahij, without a win since that 2015 UAE Derby success but who has consistently performed well in top company.

This will be just his second start of the season, having finished second in a handicap over the same 2000m dirt course and distance as Saturday’s race.

“Saturday has been his target since he was second last year,” said De Kock. “Ideally we would have had two runs, as we did last year, but we ran out of time a bit so ran him a month ago instead of Super Saturday.

“We were pleased enough with him not to run him again and he is in great shape ahead of what looks another strong renewal. Arrogate (USA) is clearly world class and going to be tough to beat but at least we are proven under these conditions.”

Mikedekockracing.com

Winning favourites were few and far between this weekend and there will have been more than just a few punters licking their wounds come yesterday evening.

The trend looked set to continue come the first race at Greyville yesterday when the well fancied Flower Blue failed to hit the boards with Touch Wood (5-1) finally getting his act together for Dennis Drier. Much had been expected of the gelding but until yesterday he had failed to deliver. “It was back to the drawing boards,” said stable rider Sean Veale after his disappointing last effort. “We took the blinkers off and this was a better effort.”

Scent Of The Tiger finally snapped the run of losing favourites as Mark Dixon’s runner prove too good for Scarrabeast and Newyorkstateofmind, and taking advantage of missing ante-post favourite Palladium who was pulled out with a hoof abscess.

Lezeanne Forbes

Night Circus was the next favourite to bite the dust. He chased in vain as Alec Forbes pushed for home early on bottom weight Warfarer for his wife Lezeanne and Night Circus was left chasing shadows.

When Anton Marcus is at the head of affairs and going a steady canter one would think the alarm bells would be ringing amongst his rivals. The bells were obvious ignored or didn’t ring at all as Marcus led the opposition a merry dance aboard Rockerfeller for Charles Laird. Marcus went to the line unchallenged with veteran outsider Discourse making the most of the funereal pace to take second.

There is not much to Pyrenees In Spain but Anthony Delpech rode the gelding as if he was aboard Sea Cottage. Storm Faerie did not set any record-breaking pace but Delpech had Dennis Bosch’s charge trailing come the top of the straight. Seemingly without much effort from Delpech, Pyrenees In Spain picked off his rivals with ease with favourite Into The Groove, who had unshipped her rider on the way to the start, battling home into second.

Roy’s Sailor was the next favourite to go walk-about, failing to hit the boards, as Forbes picked up a double aboard Nottingham Forest (4-1) for Karen and Greg Anthony. Apprentice Khanya Sakayi looked to have pinched a winning lead come the final furlong but even the 4kg claim was not enough as Sharp Seattle was swallowed up late by Nottingham Forest and outsider Beluga Berry.

Bosch was back in the winner’s enclosure in the second last but did exotic bet punters no favours, those still left in their bets that is, as Eric Ngwane drove home Founding Father (9-2) to deny Forbes his treble as Master Of Mischief cut his lead to a head at the line. They were followed home by the Bosch-trained pair of Ho’Oponopono and Elusive Wolf. Spanish Captain came out at the start leaving Flying Rock favourite but he was a spent force a long way out.

Ian Moore went one better in the last as Warren Kennedy sent Tropical Wonder to the front and kept his mount running to the line with the petrol light flashing red to hold a fast-finishing Sweet Chestnut.

Andrew Harrison

Mike de Kock has decided to close his permanent operation at Summerveld.  All the runners in the stable will forthwith be based under one roof at Randjesfontein in Johannesburg like they had been for the first half of De Kock’s training career.

De Kock commented: “This is a business decision. It makes no economic sense for us to keep the Summerveld stable going all year round. We will still be raiding for three or four months in winter with a small, exclusive string during the Champions Season.

“We have been allocated 25 extra stable at Randjesfontein, the total string will be about 160 horses. We may also send a small string to Cape Town for a few months, though travelling with horses within our own country has become almost as difficult as travelling overseas.”

In his spell as a trainer officially based at Summerveld, Mike won the KZN Trainers’ Title nine times between 2002 and 2012.

De Kock also announced that his long-time assistant trainer, Nathan Kotzen, has left the stable to take out his own licence.  He said: “Nathan was with the stable in KZN for 16 years and he worked with some of the best horses in the world, let alone the country.  He’s a top horseman in his own right, he has the credentials and is well placed to make his mark. He won’t start off without support, I have left a few of my own horses with him and so has the Slack family. We wish Natie all the best in his new career.”

– Mikedekockracing.com

Mike de Kock’s 3000^th winner was given a traditional African welcome as Janoobi and Piere Strydom were serenaded into the winner’s enclosure by a gaggle of De Kock’s grooms after their narrow victory in Gr 2 Betting World Gauteng Guineas at Turffontein yesterday. Mathew de Kock, running the yard while father Mike is in Dubai, was swept off his feet with cell phone still to his ear as Janoobi’s excited groom picked him up and carried him around the enclosure.

It was somewhat fitting that the first South African jockey to pass the 5000 winners mark was aboard Janoobi (9-2), as both De Kock and Strydom are legends of the sport.

Strydom, who rides freelance and who had ridden Janoobi on two previous occasions, was not over confident of his chances pre-race. “I’d won on him before and ridden him in Cape Town and to me he was just a nice horse,” he said. “He was short and stocky and tended to over-race all the time but the jockeys have been telling me all week that they can’t believe how well this horse was working.

“I thought ‘Ja well, I’ve ridden him and I know the horse’ but when I cantered down I though he had grown and he was more relaxed than ever and that’s why he could maybe get away with it today.

“You know, he went to the front and was relaxed in front …. he had to relax otherwise he got beat. He held on by a short head.”

Sean Tarry, looking for a Guineas double after Smiling Blue Eyes won the Gr 2 Wilgerbosdrift Gauteng Fillies Guineas, was denied a short-head as Al Sahem came up just short with the De Kock-trained Heavenly Blue coming home strongly for third.

It was almost a given that either Tarry or De Kock would saddle the winner of the Fillies Guineas in light of the fact that between them they sent out three quarters of the runners in the field.

However, few pundits came up with the Tarry-trained Smiling Blue Eyes (18-1) and the grey daughter of Dynasty gave notice that the Triple Tiara is within her capabilities.

Making light of a difficult outside draw, Raymond Danielson had no hesitation in pressing for position early. Not being able to get onto the rail she raced three-wide into the straight and made a bee-line for the outside rail. Smiling Blue Eyes gradually reeled in the opposition and just when it looked as if she would have a race on her hands, the leading contenders ran out of petrol and Smiling Blue Eyes drew off to win as she liked.

De Kock runners filled the shallow end of the purse with outside El Hawraa running on for second with the well fancied Orchid Island given every chance but not up to the task. Fancied Ektifaar was prominent throughout but also came up empty while Safe Harbour was never a factor.

“This was probably a bit short for her,” said Danielson. “The further she goes the better.”

Earlier in the day, and learning from a previous mistake, Callan Murray pressed the button at exactly the right moment in the Gr2 Hawaii Stakes to get the Australian-bred colt Rafeef (3-1) home and take Mike de Kock’s career tally of winners to 2998.

Apparently something of a monster – “I’m not scared of horses but I’m scared of this one,” De Kock admitted – Rafeef certainly doesn’t lack courage as he fought a protracted stretch battle with favourite and pacemaker New Predator, getting the upper hand late and win with something in hand.

Craig Zackey often gives the impression that he’s half asleep but just two years out of his time he is up there with the best. Ice also runs through his veins as he brought Nother Russia (11-2) through from last to first in the Gr3 Acacia Handicap and set De Kock up for his 3000^th winner.

Andrew Harrison