The J&B Met has attracted a strong field, but five of the runners look a class above the rest and under the conditions, which are weight for age plus a Gr 1 penalty, the posted result will likely closely resemble the top of the bookmakers betting boards.
The race will also show whether the favourite Legal Eagle is something truly special.
The Greys Inn gelding’s only hiccup in his recent runs has been when hampered in the July. Nobody yet knows what his limit is, but a repeat of his best rated performances to date will be enough to win this race, which is over an ideal trip. He will be hard to beat from draw three with Anton Marcus up.
Last year’s winner Futura should find a good position from a draw of six before running all the way to the line.
Legislate reportedly needed his Queens Plate run, as did his stablemate Futura, and should be in the shake up. He has been targeted at this race from a long way out and is a Gr 1 Cape Derby winner over course and distance.
Captain America finished second to Legislate in that Derby, despite over racing, so could be a threat as he has learnt to settle since gelding. He ran on from a long way back in the Queens Plate for fourth after a slow start from a wide draw and is now well drawn.
Smart Call has been a revelation since coming from off the pace and the form of her impressive win in the Paddock Stakes was franked when Inara followed up by winning the Majorca Stakes.
Gold Onyx loves Cape Town and finished second in a weaker Met than this last year. His famed short run in can be very effective provided he finds a good spot in the running.
Light The Lights has come into his own since gelding and his good turn of foot will be a valuable weapon over a suitable trip.
Punta Arenas’ honest third and fifth-place finishes in the last two years were in weaker fields, but the evergreen seven-year-old has actually shown improvement since then and is reunited with Ian Sturgeon, who rode him to an unlucky second in the July.
Paterfamilias has proved this season why he has always been held in high regard and has a place chance, provided he can find a good spot in the running from a high draw.
Helderberg Blue is very well at present but will find it hard to repeat his third of last year in a stronger field.
King Of Pain made no impression when coming from off them in the Queen’s Plate and his recent form does not inspire any confidence. Perhaps his best chance would be a scenario where he leads in a slow run race, an eventuality which saw him beating a top class field to win the Gr 1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge in 2014.
Master Sabina’s Summer Cup win came in his second run after a long layoff, so he could improve on it, but will need to under these tougher conditions and against better horses.
Mac De Lago stayed on for fifth from way back in the Summer Cup, but has a tough task at the weights.
Keambambuli has a hopeless task but might be used as the pacemaker.
Legal Eagle could take another step towards the Equus Horse Of The Year title by holding off the determined charge of Futura, and Legislate could finish third ahead of Smart Call and Captain America.
The Gr 1 weight for age Betting World Cape Flying Championship should also fall to a Sean Tarry-trained favourite, Carry On Alice, whose last run can be ignored. She has excellent early pace plus a devastating late kick and is officially 2kg better in at the weights than any other horse. The giant Brutal Force has come into his own since gelding, but Anton Marcus has chosen to ride Guinness, who is said to be back to his best. Trip Tease was scratched when bursting through the stalls on Queen’s Plate day, but will definitely be fit enough. If his starting woes don’t affect him he will be a big threat. Gulf Storm is interesting running in first-time blinkers over a trip short of his optimum. Daring Dave lost five lengths last time and still finished only 1,85 lengths behind Harry Lime in a strong Conditions Plate over course and distance, despite giving the latter 4,5kg. Harry Lime is on the up since gelding and could surprise.
The selection is Carry On Alice to beat Guiness with Trip Tease, Brutal Force and Harry Lime next best.
There are eight handicaps on the twelve race card, which makes it tough. However, an eye-catchingly good value price is the 12/1 a win and 22/10 for the first four about Silvan Star in race 5, a talented sort who was unlucky last time and could overcome a wide draw.
By David Thiselton
Picture: Legal Eagle (Liesl King)