Captain America is the class act in the Matchem Stakes at Durbanville on Sunday. He is the only Grade 1 winner in the field and he is hot favourite – as short as 14-10 with World Sports Betting.
But be prepared for a surprise. Corne Orffer’s mount has been off since April and this is a poor race for favourites. True, Act Of War 12 months ago and Capetown Noir in 2013 both won but they were exceptional animals who started odds-on and, those two apart, there hasn’t been a winning favourite in the Matchem since Play Catch 12 years ago.
No reservations from in-form Brett Crawford, though – “Both Captain America and Sail South have had a good preparation, they have been to Durbanville for a gallop and they have been working well.”
When you adjust the official ratings for the weights 5-1 shot Sail South comes out marginally the better but, significantly, their trainer doesn’t buy this at all. “Sail South’s 110 rating was gained on his last two wins in Durban and one of these was on the poly. He has yet to run off it and I’m not convinced whereas Captain America has proved his rating.”
All but two of the 11 runners are having their first races of the season and are therefore vulnerable and the vote, albeit a pretty tentative one, goes to 8-1 chance Heartland as the stable is on song and he was second 12 months ago. “He has only had one gallop but he will run a good race and (6-1) Baritone’s work has not been as good as Heartland’s,” says Justin Snaith whose third string Ultimate Dollar is as big as 11-1 despite having Andrew Fortune on his back.
It’s worth bearing in mind, though, that Baritone’s rider Greg Cheyne has been in blistering form since his return and he rode another treble here on Wednesday.
Rodney (backed from 8-1 to 6-1 yesterday morning) hasn’t a prayer on ratings – he comes out nearly seven lengths behind Captain America – but he has had a run and that can mean a huge amount. But the most appealing of all the bigger-priced horses is Blarney Bay at 12-1. This is his trip and the course is ideally-suited to his front-running style. Win or lose, one thing is certain – he will have put the fear of God into the opposition, and their connections, as he thunders towards the 200m marker three lengths clear.
Crawford may have yet to win the Matchem or the Diana but he has the favourite in the fillies race too. Alexis heads the market at 33-10 and, says her trainer, ”She is fit and well, and she loves to run fresh.”
Favourites have won five of the last seven but she might not head the market come race time if, as seems quite possible, the money comes for the impressive Stormsvlei Mile winner Captain’s Flame (4-1) who missed the Garden Province because she went down with a cough in Durban.
“We are not in this just to give her a run,” says Andre Nel making light of the filly’s lengthy absence. “Ours is the best horse in the race and I give her a big chance.”
It’s hard to go against that sort of confidence particularly as A Time To Dream, my original idea of the winner, is badly drawn. “She has done well and, even with draw, she will run a good race,” advises her trainer.
Finally Aldo Domeyer, who rides Captain’s Flame, is odds-on for the last. The Jockeys Chase has been extended to 400m in a bid to end his total domination of the event but this is the Frankel of jockey athletics and he looks a good thing.
Michael Clower
