Turffontein trainer Paul Peter said a decision would be made at the end of the week on Summer Pudding’s participation in the Grade 1 Woolavington 2000 but he added she would definitely not be running in the Vodacom Durban July.

The Silvano filly has now won six out of six and doubling that number will earn her a new South African record unbeaten streak.

The mark of eleven wins unbeaten was set by Home Guard in the late 1960s.

If the Wilgerbosdrift Triple Tiara heroine does travel down for the Woolavington she will travel shortly before the race and will then “winter” at Summerveld for the rest of the season. 

Peter watched her bid to become the third horse to win the Triple Tiara on one of the only two working TV’s at a deserted Turffontein, near the jockey’s room, and said although normally quiet during races he could not on this occasion contain his emotions.

He did have one moment of real concern, explaining, “She hit a flat spot at the top of the straight.”

Some fans feared the worst when Gavin Lerena’s attempt to slot her in was thwarted by Diego De Gouveia’s determined race riding on the eventual third-placed Ballet Shoes.

Lerena was thus forced to stay out wide down the entire back straight. However, this did not concern Peter, who said, 

“She was comfortable and if you are on the best horse it is ok to be a little wide, you are going to then be sure of getting a run.”

Lerena did find cover around the final turn but had to become urgent 500m out to extract her from her flat spot.

She found her gears at the 400m mark.

She then ranged alongside her chief market rival Marygold and then in resolute style her big stride carried her clear.

She was bred by Mauritzfontein and Wilgerbosdrift Stud and is owned by the former. 

Mauritzfontein stud owners Stephen and Jessica Jell were soon conveying how proud they were of the unbeaten filly on a social media video.

Peter said the Jells and Mary Slack of Wilgerbosdrift Stud were “really nice” people to train for and elaborated, “They really love their horses and are ecstatic when they win and happy if they just return home safe.”

The win was richly deserved as the Jells and Slack had recently kindly stepped in as financiers of a Phumelela business Rescue plan. Accolades duly poured in for the much respected family.

Meanwhile, Ormond Ferraris, who never misses a day at the tracks as a valued advisor to Peter, had an extra spring in his step this morning (Monday). 

The Peter yard had three other impressive winners on the day. 

In the first, a workriders maiden over 1600m, the two-year-old Marchfield filly Cloth Of Ice galloped clear to win by 2,25 lengths under Tshepiso Matsoele. She has plenty of scope for improvement and Peter is eyeing the Grade 1 Thekwini Stakes over 1600m at Greyville on Gold Cup day, August 29.

Later, four-year-old Ideal World filly Vistula bounced  back to her best in a Pinnacle Stakes event over 1600m, winning by 2,50 lengths under Lerena.

She will now go for the Grade 1 HSH Princess Charlene Stakes over the same course and distance on Champions day June 27. After that she might take her place in the Grade 1 Jonsson Workwear Garden Province Stakes over 1600m on July day, where she ran fifth last year.

Jet Start then displayed her finishing speed when winning the last, a Pinnacle Stakes event over 2000m, in comfortable style under Calvin Habib, and she will likely also be seen in a forthcoming feature.

By David Thiselton 

The Vaal Monday meeting features a Pinnacle Stakes race over 1000m sponsored by Betting World which has attracted many top sprinters, most of whom will be preparing for the Grade 1 Computaform Sprint to be run on Champions Day, March 27.

The three-year-old filly True To Life has exceptional natural speed and could upset the two best males in the race, Mr Flood and Chimichuri Run. However, she does have a low draw, which is sometime disadvantageous on the Vaal straight course. Calvin Habib was aboard her last time when she won easily at Hollywoodbets Greyville over 1400m and retains the ride.

Mr Flood has looked to be a star in the making from day one and since returning from a layoff of more than a year has won three and placed second once in four starts. It was likely only the low draw which beat him last time too in the Grade 2 Senor Santa Stakes. His strength is his ability to find extra when challenged.

Chimichuri Run is the reigning Grade 1 Tsogo Sun Sprint winner and carries topweight. He is better at 1200m but is fitted with blinkers whenever he runs over 1000m and finished third in the Computaform Sprint last year.

The filly Mighty High is also a Grade 1 winner and beat Mr Flood narrowly when last meeting in the Senor Santa.

Two others to consider are Winter Storm and Singforafa.

PA (R216)
Leg 1: 10,2
Leg 2: 1,3,4
Leg 3: 3,2
Leg 4: 6
Leg 5: 4,5,2
Leg 6: 5,2
Leg 7: 3,6,10

Pick 6 (R3600)
Leg 1: 1,3,4,2,10
Leg 2: 3,2
Leg 3: 6,3
Leg 4: 4,5,2,1,3,14,11,8,12
Leg 5: 5,2,1,10
Leg 6: 3,6,10,8,1

JACKPOT (270)
Leg 2: 3,2,1
Leg 3: 6,3
Leg 4: 4,5,2,1,3,14,11,8,12
Leg 5: 5,2,1,10,9

BEST BET Race 6: No. 6 OUR MAN IN HAVANA

VALUE BET Race 5: No. 3 BELLAGIO KING

By David Thiselton

Bunker Hunt gave early notice that he will be a force to be reckoned with in the next three months of South Africa’s Champion Season with a stunning display in the Grade 2 Independent On Saturday Drill Hall Stakes at Hollywoodbets Greyville today.

L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate winner Vardy was a short-priced favourite and looked to have most in his favour, but Bunker Hunt put the race to bed in a matter of strides as Keagan de Melo let him loose at the top of the straight.

Vardy challenged pacemaker Kasimir all the way up the straight but was just not able to get to terms, but the pair were no match for Bunker Hunt who swept past up their inside to win as he liked.

Given his previous form, this was a distance that looked short of his best but he showed plenty of class in victory. Much was expected of Bunker Hunt last winter but he met with many hiccups and this could be his year.

His name is sure to be among the first nominations for the Vodacom Durban July that are due tomorrow.

Trained by Justin Snaith, Bunker Hunt races in the familiar silks of Sabine Plattner and was bred at Varsfontein Stud.

There’s not much of her but what she lacks in stature she makes up for in courage. The diminutive but feisty Mississippi Burning scored back-to-back Fillies Guineas victories with a last gasp triumph in the Grade 2 World Sports Betting Fillies Guineas, the favourite edging home ahead of rank outsider Mary O with Labyrinth some way back in third.

The race was hardly run to suit as Lady Legend set a modest pace but Craig Zackey had his mount in the box seat, one off the fence as the pace quickened up approaching the final turn.

Hunting daylight, Zackey angled his mount up the inside fence and gradually wore down Mary O who was game in defeat.

Trained by Adam Marcus, Mississippi Burning races in the familiar silks of Mario Ferreira and was bred at Mike and Tanya McHardy’s Rathmor Stud.

Star filly Beach Beauty was nigh unbeatable at Hollywoodbets Greyville and her aptly named son, Wild Coast, scored a narrow, upset victory in the Grade 2 World Sports Betting Guineas at the same venue. In a nail-biting finish, Donovan Dillon got the colt home in the shadow of the post, edging out pacemaker Padre Pio with Cape Derby winner Golden Ducat putting a storming late effort for third, a showing that augurs well for the Grade1 Dily News 2000.

Wild Coast was the outsider of Justin Snaith’s pair with Sachdev starting favourite but Wild Coast will not be denied his place in the sun. Captain Demonami was an early casualty as he refused to jump and it was Craig Zackey, hunting back-to-back Guineas triumphs, who set the pace on Padre Pio. As in the filly’s equivalent, the field was barely out of an early canter and Frosted Gold the next casualty. He was forced to check and switch off the heels of the pack, losing valuable ground.

Dillon had Wild Coast settled midfield and once in the straight set out after Padre Pio who had pinched a lead and was showing no signs of stopping. Sachdev loomed dangerous for a few strides but didn’t go on with his effort as Wild Coast gradually ate into Padre Pio’s lead and nailed him on the line.

Trained by Justin Snaith, Wild Coast is owned by Anyaasec (Pty) Ltd and Miss Caroline Rupert and was bred at the Rupert’s Drakenstein Stud.

By Andrew Harrison

Featured Image: Bunker Hunt (Candiese Lenferna)

Vardy, stunning winner of the Gr1 Queen’s Plate, starts his Champions Season campaign in the Gr2 Independent On Saturday Drill Hall Stakes at Hollywoodbets Greyville tomorrow. Adam Marcus has the Vodacom Durban July in his plans and the gelding he looks difficult to oppose in this season opener.

Vardy took on the best ‘milers’ in the country in the Queen’s Plate and gave them a galloping lesson, coming from off the pace and breezing past the opposition in seemingly effortless fashion.

On that performance the Gr1 Sun Met looked well within his compass but there is never a racing certainty in this sport as favourite Hawwaam, ran into the back of him, fatally compromising both horse’s chances.

Hawwaam starts his season in the Gr1 HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes at Turffontein today, and if their stars align the pair could meet again come Saturday, July 25.

Given the weight conditions of the Drill Hall, Vardy need only be at half-throttle to win and this should be the ideal blow-out for his next VDJ stepping stone, the Rising Sun Gold Challenge.

The only possible threat could come from top sprinter Kasimir. Justin Snaith’s charge is no stranger to the course having beaten the top filly Celtic Sea in the Gr1 Mercury Sprint last season. He comes into the race off a grinding victory in the Diadem Stakes at Kenilworth where he looked beaten a furlong out but kept fighting off all challengers. The majority of his form has been over 1200m but given his never-say-die attitude, Vardy’s rider, Craig Zackey, will need to be fully aware of what he is up against especially with master tactician Anton Marcus aboard.

Matador Man could battle in this line-up but loves this course while Sniper Shot tries blinkers for the first time. The balance should all prefer more ground.

Adam Marcus has had a stellar season to date, with two Gr1 wins to his credit. Vardy’s Queen’s Plate triumph was his second, Mississippi Burning his first in the Gr1 Cape Fillies Guineas.

She is also in action in the World Sports Betting Fillies Guineas tomorrow where there are a few in opposition who will be looking to turn the tables.

Mississippi Burning is not the most striking physical specimen but she made her Cape rivals look pretty ordinary as she won the Guineas easing up with three lengths of daylight back to the runner-up Driving Miss Daisy, also in tomorrow’s line-up and one of the leading contenders. A repeat performance will see her hard to peg back.

Kelpie was no match in the Cape but has since run two smart races in open features and comes from a very much in form stable.

Labyrinth is unbeaten since Vaughan Marshall tried her in blinkers and looks a far better proposition than when beaten by Kelpie three runs back.

The Gr2 World Sports Betting Guineas is an intriguing contest where the Cape raiders are again likely to hold sway. Golden Ducat, a half-brother to the pair of top gallopers Rainbow Bridge and Hawwaam, was easy to back in the Cape Derby where he revelled in the ten-furlong contest beating the well fancied Sachdev. The pair meet again tomorrow, but the latter could be more at home over this shorter trip and able to turn the tables.

Golden Ducat is a giant of a horse and one would reasonably expect him to battle around the relatively tight Greyville circuit but the past has shown that big horses are not necessary at a disadvantage so it would be foolish to write off the Derby winner’s chances.

Count Jack comes off three straight wins, Sachdev his most recent victim, so must also come into the reckoning while local hopes could rest with Padre Pio and Guru’s Pride.

The lock-down initiated by the Covid-19 pandemic saw horse racing on hold for the past two months but was given the green light to resume last Monday, June 1. Under strict quarantine guidelines, only persons essential to the running of the race meeting are allowed on course but all races can be watched live on channel 239 on DStv. All TAB and bookmaker rooms are closed and betting can only be conducted on line.

By Andrew Harrison

Summer Pudding became only the third filly to win the Triple Tiara after powering home in the Gr1 SA Oaks at a deserted Turffontein today. Gavin Lerena rode a confident race on Paul Peter’s charge, racing three wide early but able to tuck in before the final turn.

Summer Pudding looked to be making heavy weather of it with 400m to run, but she kept finding to wear down Pomander and win rather comfortably in the end.

Owned by Jessica and Stephan Jell, Summer Pudding is out of the mare Cherry On The Cake, who is a half-sister to the dam of the 2013 Triple Tiara winner Cherry On The Top.

The latter was trained by the legendary Ormond Ferraris, who is now a valuable member of the Paul Peter team as an advisor and Peter was profuse in his praise for the veteran trainer.

Mike de Kock has had more than his fair share of tribulations with Hawwaam but it was back to business as usual in the Gr1 HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes. De Kock attributed a disappointing Cape Summer to all of his horses being ‘flat’, including Hawwaam and Queen Supreme, and both turned in their best today. Callan Murray drove Hawwaam to a comfortable victory while Queen Supreme came from last to snatch second ahead of an always game Cirillo.

De Kock and owner Sheik Hamdan are keen to see Hawwaam take on international opposition – “he is good enough” confirmed De Kock – but just when the colt travels is up to export protocols.

If via Mauritius, Hawwaam will be in quarantine before the Vodacom Durban July but if the European Union gives the green light for direct export, the July will still be an option.

The SA Derby saw a major upset as rank outside Out Of Your League gave Fabian Habib the first Gr1 winner of his short career. It was a win of sheer courage as Out Of Your League, made most of the running. Swamped by challengers with a furlong to go, he rallied gamely under Raymond Danielson to run them all out of it. The finish was not without drama as Out Of Your League and Shango came together over the final furlong. Gavin Lerena chose to up-grade a race review to a full-blown objection but it was a desperate gamble that was never going to succeed.

Got The Greenlight ran a terrific race in third, all over the winner before the final 100m tapped the last of his stamina.

By Andrew Harrison

Paul Peter’s Silvano filly Summer Pudding will attempt tomorrow at Turffontein to become only the third horse to land the Wilgerbosdrift Triple Tiara and she has a strong connection to the last filly to complete this arduous feat.

Summer Pudding is out of Cherry On The Cake, who is a half-sister to the dam of the 2013 Triple Tiara winner Cherry On The Top.

The latter was trained by the legendary Ormond Ferraris, who is now a valuable member of the Paul Peter team as an advisor.

Ferraris has been at track everyday in the build up to this race so the filly has a fine chance of arriving tomorrow in peak condition.

Ferraris was in fact the original trainer of Summer Pudding but upon his retirement last year she was sent by her owners and breeders, Mary Slack and Jessica Jell of Wilgerbosdrift and Mauritzfontein Stud, to Paul Peter’s yard.

Peter has idolised Ferraris since the days he sneaked on to his local Turffontein racecourse as a racing-mad schoolboy, but despite the reassurance of having such a wealth of experience and expertise beside him he was a bundle of nerves this afternoon.

“I have no more finger nails left,” he chortled.

He added, “There is always that worry when they come back from rests whether you have done enough or whether you have done too much. But she is very well.”

She had just returned from a mid-afternoon walk and Peter reported her to be “fresh and alert.”

She will be without her regular pilot, the national champion jockey elect Warren Kennedy, and she is drawn out wide too.

However, Peter is not overly concerned.

He said, “Gavin Lerena is aboard and is a champion at overcoming draws.”

Lerena, a former national champion jockey and a fine horseman, has been riding her work in the build up.

Sumer Pudding has a perfect racing temperament, being a relaxed type with a good turn of foot and plenty of courage.

Peter said at the beginning of her Triple Tiara bid that the first leg, the Grade 2 Wilgerbosdrift Gauteng Guineas, would be her hardest leg as it was on the sharp side for her.

The further she goes the better so she is expected to add tomorrow’s Oaks to her cosy win in the Grade 1 Wilgerbosdrift SA Classic over 1800m.

Her main dangers will be the classy Victoria Paige, who had to be scratched from the SA Fillies Classic when expected to go close, and Marygold, who ran on strongly for second in the SA Fillies Classic. Victoria Paige has a stamina doubt whilst Marygold is by the stamina influence Flower Alley. 

The strange part of tomorrow’s race will be no crowds, but there are sure to be many screaming Summer Pudding home in their living rooms.

Peter is also quietly confident with his SA Derby runner Western Fort, whom he said had improved a lot with the application of blinkers as they had helped him focus.

He also labelled his classy filly Vistula a “massive runner” in the sixth race.

By David Thiselton

Mike de Kock said Hawwaam was back to his “aggressive” self ahead of his bid to add a fourth Grade 1 to his CV in the Grade 1 HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes at Turffontein today, where he faces some tough opposition, including his stablemate and defending champion Soqrat.

De Kock has a third runner in the race too, the crack filly Queen Supreme.

All three of these horses disappointed to various degrees in their last starts down in Cape Town and De Kock said, “All of our horses ran flat races in their second or third starts this season in Cape Town.”

In Hawwaam and Soqrat’s cases they had to endure the calamitous 25-minute delay to the start of the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate. 

Hawwaam’s over-racing antics that day blunted the turn of foot he is famous for while Soqrat “fell apart” completely.

De Kock immediately sent Soqrat to the farm for a holiday and he is now a happy horse again and “doing very well.”

Hawwaam subsequently ran in the Sun Met and although still not quite the horse who had thrilled crowds in Johannesburg and Durban with his effortless change of gears, he still managed third place in a high class field.

Hawwaam has a perfect draw of five today and his fans will hope to see him settling in behind horses before slicing through the field like a hot knife through butter.

The four-year-old Silvano colt will be exported this year, but the connections do not know when, as any change to the export protocols is still forthcoming. 

If they are forced to go the Mauritius route, Hawwaam will depart for the Cape Town quarantine station in June and thus miss the Vodacom Durban July. 

However, if the EU inspection on African Horse Sickness containment does take place soon, and brings with it good news, then he might still take his place in the July. 

Hawwaam is in fact a rig, a common condition in which one or more of the testicles fails to descend from the abdomen. The late great stallion A. P. Indy was a rig so there is still every chance Hawwaam can go on to convert his racing and pedigree class into stud success. 

De Kock said Soqrat was a versatile type who could go handy or come from off the pace, so the draw of ten should not affect him too badly.

This horse is the ultimate professional, as he proved in this race last year when digging down deep to fend off Cirillo. His trusted partner for the whole of last season, Randall Simons, is aboard for the first time this season.

Queen Supreme had the plaudits rapturous when winning the Grade 1 Paddock Stakes over 1800m, but she subsequently ran a flat race in the Grade 1 Bidvest Majorca Stakes over 1600m. 

De Kock said, “She is doing very well but it is a tough race.”

De Kock runs Pomander in the SA Oaks and said, “She is fit and well and stays well, she could place.”

Tomorrow, he runs Frosted Gold in the Grade 2 WSB Guineas. This handy-running grey should be ideally suited to Greyville and has a form chance of winning.

By David Thiselton

Sean Tarry has a strong hand in the big meeting at Turffontein tomorrow and his big guns have generally landed good draws too.

In the Grade 1 SA Derby over 2450m his Grade 2 TAB/Betting World Dingaans winner Shango has drawn pole and his other two runners, Cornish Pomodoro and Nebraas, are drawn seven and ten respectively.

Tarry said about Shango “He seems to be a staying type. He has never showed much in work but he is doing well and is moving well and the draw will help. I am pleased with everything.”

He admitted only the race would tell whether he stayed the trip.

Shango is by the sprinter Captain Of All out of a Jet Master mare who won from 1200m to 1400m but he won the Dingaans going away and Tarry had no doubt whatsoever he would stay the 1800m trip of the Grade 1 SA Classic.

His below par run there could have been explained by him having to be scratched from the Gauteng Guineas after a minor setback and missing three or four days of work as a result and the yard had also suffered a bout of temperatures at the time of the Classic too.

Cornish Pomodoro also ran well below par in the Derby Trial around the time of the bout of temperatures and Tarry said that outing was best ignored.

He pointed out, “I had always expected him to turn into a classic horse. That last run knocked the wind out of our sails but before that he ran second to Green Laser at level weights in the Secretariat and was doing his best work late so based on that he is not a long way off these horses.  He has been doing well.

Tarry said about Nebraas, “He is out of an Archipenko mare and his sire Vercingetorix did have a lot of pace over a mile but is by Silvano (who imparts stamina), so he should get the trip. He is a nice horse and is progressive. He is under pressure based on his merit rating but is coming off a second place finish in the Derby Trial where he had a few here behind him.”

Asked which was the stable elect, Tarry said, “Shango would be the choice on form no doubt but he is lazy at home and on work I would say Nebraas, although it’s tricky as the horses to beat are also stepping up in trip.”

In the Grade 1 HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes over 1600m Tarry runs last year’s runner up Cirillo (drawn three), the progressive Tierra Del Fuego (drawn two) and the former Summer Cup winner Tilbury Fort (drawn 12).  

Cirillo bounced back to his best last time to win the Grade 2 Hawaii Stakes over 1400m by 3,50 lengths.

Tarry said, “He was impressive and is doing well. He had a deep draw last year and only just failed. He has 2kg to find on the top horses but is now drawn well and hopefully will have a very good run.”

“Tierra Del Fuego was soundly beaten by Cirillo in the Hawaii but he is on the up and a mile might even be better. He has got it all to do but he is fit and well.”

“This is a pipe opener for Tilbury Fort. It is nice to have Lyle back, he hasn’t ridden Tilbury since winning the 2018 Summer Cup and a 1400m race next time out. I hope to see him running on and we can map out a program from there.”

Tarry runs Victoria Paige and Keep On Smiling in the Grade 2 SA Oaks.

He had been highly confident of Victoria Paige’s chance in the Grade 1 SA Fillies Classic but had to scratch her with a temperature. The long-striding daughter of Captain Al has drawn pole and he said, “She hasn’t had the ideal preparation and I can’t have the same confidence over 2400m. I’m hoping she will stay but she is not certain too and it is exactly the same with Keep Smiling, who also has ability.”

Tarry said he had been able to get enough work into his charges during lockdown. However, one concern was whether he had kept them on the boil for too long due to the extended lockdown and the continual stretching out of the dates of the races. 

Of his other charges on the day he felt Dubawi Princess was a runner, he gave Slalom Queen a chance, he rates Immeasurable but was disappointed by his last run and is hoping he is not a “brass”, he believes first-timer Sun Ray would probably need the experience but added he would be progressive, he thought Take The World had a chance having come from last on debut to finish fourth, although he is now widely drawn, and he said Return Flight always thrived at this time of the year.

He has Matador Man running at Greyville in the Grade 2 Drill Hall Stakes on Sunday and said, “He has a tough task taking on those horses but loves Greyville and on his day is useful. He has been doing well.”

Tarry said the weekend was also going to be an important yardstick to sort out his SA Champions Season team. Horses are only allowed one move during the lockdown so he won’t be able to travel up and down. 

He envisages entering about ten horses into the Vodacom Durban July on Monday. 

By David Thiselton

It’s SA Derby Day at Turffontein tomorrow and TAB has added carryovers to four pools at the meeting.

The principal carryover to the meeting is a R250,000 add-in to the Pick 6, which starts on Race 4 at 12:55. The carryover should generate a total net pool of some R1 million.

There are also R75,000 carryovers to each of the two Jackpot pools, as well as a R100,000 carryover to the Quartet on Race 7, the Wilgerbosfdrift SA Oaks which is the final leg of the Wilgerbosdrift Triple Tiara for three-year-old fillies.

Trainer Paul Peter’s charge Summer Pudding, winner of all five starts to date including the first two legs of the Triple Tiara, is hot favourite.

Carryover details:

Pick 6 = R250,000 (estimated pool R1,000,000)

Jackpot 1 = R75,000 (estimated pool R500,000)

Jackpot 2 = R75,000 (estimated pool R300,000)

Quartet Race 7 = R100,000 (R750,000)

The current pandemic has turned our world upside down.  SARS-CoV-2, the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic, is a “novel” virus, which means that it is new and nobody on the planet has been exposed to it before.  This also means that nobody has immunity to it.

Only one of two scenarios will end this nightmare:  a reliable vaccine, or achieving a “herd immunity” of about 70% of the population.

Herd immunity is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through vaccination or previous infections, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune.

Therefore, the timeline to return to “complete” normal will be about 18 months from now, because it is unlikely that the vaccine would be available in South Africa sooner (albeit, multiple agencies are fast tracking the process, so we might all be surprised).  The SARS outbreak, from 2002 till 2004, which was also a Corona Virus and also started in China, took 2 years to “burn out”.

What does this mean at a very practical level?  Well, until the vaccine arrives, most of us will become exposed and develop immunity.  Obviously, people at high risk must avoid exposure at all costs.  People at high risk will only be “safer” from infection when herd immunity is established.

Life must go on and we cannot exist in a Level 5 lockdown indefinitely.  The sooner we have herd immunity, the better.

The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 amongst passengers on two ships, the Diamond Princess cruise liner and the USS Theodore Roosevelt warship, has led to several, interesting studies being conducted.

These studies have helped us to learn and understand that more than 50% of positive cases will be asymptomatic.  In other words, people who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 will still remain completely healthy and not experience any symptoms despite “fighting” off the virus and developing immunity.  In the case of the USS Theodore Roosevelt, the “healthy”, infected group was around 60% of the crew, which is completely understandable because the average age on board was younger relative to the age of passengers on the Diamond Princess.

The Jockeys are young (less than 60 years old) and healthy.  All of the Jockeys in Johannesburg were tested for SARS-CoV-2.  Almost all tested negative.  The small number that tested positive were completely asymptomatic and remain healthy.  There is no doubt that they contracted the virus outside of racing venues, because these were closed during the lockdown.  The Jockeys live far apart from each other, in different municipalities and rode work somewhat occasionally, at different venues.

It must be expected that if you were to randomly test any group of people in South Africa right now, you would find positive tests.  It is not currently known what percentage of the population has developed herd immunity.  Estimates from some Virologists range between 3% to maybe 20% in Cape Town, a “hotspot” area.  In 18 months, herd immunity should be at around 70% of the population.

Until then, based on the timing to achieve heard immunity and/or have access to a vaccination, the current practice of social distancing and sanitisation is recommended.  We expect the number of new cases to increase and, unfortunately, we also anticipate an increase in the death rate.

That being said, people under 60 years of age with no co-morbidities (chronic diseases), have more chance of dying in a car accident than succumbing to SARS-CoV-2.

We know that some are more at risk than others.  The risk factors for contracting SARS-CoV-2 and experiencing severe symptoms include the following:  People older than 60 years of age (the risks for people older than 80 is predictably much more significant), moderate to severe chronic lung diseases, poorly controlled diabetes, poorly controlled hypertension, serious heart conditions, chronic renal disease on dialysis, chronic liver disease, severe obesity (Body Mass Index over 40), immunocompromised patients, (chemotherapy patients, patients with uncontrolled HIV, bone marrow or organ transplants), advanced pregnancy (>28 weeks).

The current racing structure (behind closed doors) is well-suited to be safer than any other industry right now.  Only the Jockeys that tested negative are racing, for a limited number of hours over a few days a week.  The chance of contracting COVID-19 is much greater outside of the racetrack venues; at any shop for that matter.

There is no need to panic!  Drive carefully on the roads.  For most of us, that is far more dangerous.  If you have any of the above risk factors, isolate yourself from society completely, if you can.  As for the rest of us, we should continue to follow the recommended public health practices of social distancing and sanitisation.  It must be said that the sooner we become immune, the better for everyone, including the very old and those at high risk.

Ends