Francia can become the first of her sex to win the Settlers Trophy for 13 years at Durbanville tomorrow and upset better fancied stable companion Captain Splendid in the process.
She won the Winter Oaks in June as if stamina is her forte and this view appeared to be confirmed by her only managing third when starting favourite over a mile last time. It’s a bit disconcerting that she now has a different jockey for the fifth time in as many races but Greg Cheyne is as good as they come.
Captain Splendid, similarly bidding to become Justin Snaith’s fourth Settlers winner in ten years, is expected to start favourite. He won the East Cape Derby over this trip in May but last time’s success over the same distance has resulted in him being raised 1.5kg and there are grounds for believing that he could struggle to confirm the placings with Jeremy on the revised terms.
“Jeremy was unlucky not to win that day,” recalls Greg Ennion. “They went too slowly for him and, had they gone a decent pace, I think he would have won comfortably. He has been doing well and he is strengthening up nicely”
Corne Orffer’s mount has only a length to find but Ennion is also expecting a good run from Roman Discent even though this one was nearly four lengths further back in last month’s race – “I thought he would fight out the finish with Jeremy but the slow pace didn’t suit him either. He pulled hard and burned himself out. However there won’t be a slow pace this time, I can assure you!”
Ennion runs four but says that Chrome Blue is better at Kenilworth and prefers 400m less, while Irish Dynasty is a whopping 8kg under sufferance.
Candice Bass-Robinson is hopeful that My World’s near two-month absence will not count against him and, while the statistic that no horse has won this with 60kg this century (and probably never) owes a lot to the steady rise in the maximum weight, victory in recent years has tended to go to those lower down the scale. That said, Grant van Niekerk’s mount likes this trip and has been dropped half a kilo.
Can Cope was unlucky not to win her last two starts over a mile but this is half as far again and the last time she raced this far was 12 months ago when she finished plumb last. “Her best distance is 1 800 -2 000m and in last year’s race she was three wide all the way and didn’t see it out,” recalls Harold Crawford. “But I’m sure she will this time if Grant Behr can restrain her early on and give her a chance.”
Riaan van Reenen’s Settlers record is on a par with Snaith’s – indeed far better if you take into account the size of their respective strings. He has won three of the last 11 while brother Reza won the 2003 running. “With a bit of luck we can do it again,” he says, pointing out that recent course winner Barossa Valley found 1 800m too short last time and is in good form.
Lady Redoute has run well over course and distance and stepped up considerably last time, her third run after a rest. However the handicappers promptly hit her with a huge 4kg rise.
Oh So Modus stays well but disappointed on his last visit to Durbanville a year ago. In January he was 11th of 15 in the J & B Stayers but only a head behind My World and is 2.5kg better. Even so, it’s hard to see him winning.
Michael Clower
