David Thiselton

THE VODACOM DURBAN JULY result proved that the gap between the merit ratings of the top weights and the ultimate chief protagonists is too wide and the handicapper is going to have a problem narrowing it.

The Cape Town Met first three Rainbow Bridge, Belgarion and Sovereign Spirit ran close to the relative form of that 2000m weight for age (wfa) event. Rainbow Bridge and Belgarion also ran quite close to their relative form in last year’s July.

However, they were beaten more than five lengths by Kommetdieding, who on wfa terms beat Linebacker by half-a-length and Got The Greenlight by 0,70 lengths.

This suggests that unless the Met can be considered a weak race the first three in the July were too lowly rated.

What adds to this reading of the race is the performance of Do It Again.

Despite being very unlucky he was beaten only 1,75 lengths carrying 57,5kg off a merit rating of 129.

Considering the bad luck he proved himself every inch up to 129 and perhaps better. 

Therefore the handicappers appear to have two options; 

1) to rate the race highly.

2) to rate it lowly while giving the top weights significant decreases in merit rating.

Handicapping guru Jay August summed it up, “The problem is that Rainbow Bridge has become detached from a proper handicap rating, and any horse who runs against him at wfa becomes similarly detached – this year’s July proved this adequately. While Rainbow Bridge remains in form at wfa level his rating is unlikely to reduce and any horse that races close up against him at wfa is then attracted into that higher level relative to those horses who bypass  such challenge.”