The Vaal Inside track stages a low key ten race meeting tomorrow and low draws will be favourable in all races.
The highest rated race on the card is a MR 80 Handicap over 1 000m. Roquebrune was disappointing in a Novice Plate over 1 200m last time, but has plenty of early pace so will appreciate the step down in trip.
Considering he finished just one length behind the top class Rivarine in a Graduation Plate the last time he tried 1 000m, he looks well handicapped here off just a 75 merit rating. He is drawn towards the favourable inside so should go close.
However, he is unlikely to find the rail as the speedy Just Africa is drawn one inside of him. This horse is a 1 000m specialist. The draw will help but against him will be the little bit of rain which is about. He seems to prefer the ground to be as fast as possible. Furthermore, he is seven points higher than his last win.
All Night Flight beat Just Africa by 3,7 lengths last time and as he is only 3kg worse off, so he should confirm the form.
Magic is returning from a layoff which followed a run in June where he went lame and was eased out of the race. On ability he will be a big factor. Furthermore, he has the plum draw of one. Considering the speed among the low draws, the race should set up well for him too. Kapitan has dropped to a mark eleven points lower than his last win.
His early pace can help him overcome a high draw and he might appreciate the step down in trip. He was found to have been not striding out in his last two starts, so should be inspected closely on the way down, because if he is sound he could be a runner here.
Roquebrune is selected to beat All Night Flight, Just Africa, Magic and Kapitan in that order.
The banker on the card is Charming Charlie in the first leg of the Pick 6. He set the pace over 1 800m last time and went a decent clip without over racing. He was outrun in the straight by Okavango Delta, but was not stopping at the line, so should enjoy the step up in trip. Furthermore, he is a full-brother to Duchess Kate, whose two career wins have both been over 2 000m.
A further plus is that Star Of Caesour, whom he beat by six lengths in that last race, has since come out and won by 4,8 lengths over 2 000m.
Charming Charlie has a fair draw of seven and Muzi Yeni is an able substitute for Anton Marcus. On the downside, he faces a weak field and is likely to be short in the betting.
The one who makes most appeal for the exacta is Stool Pigeon. He stayed on over 1 600m last time to finish eleven lengths behind a promising sort and on both visual and pedigree evidence he should relish the step up to 2 000m. He is by Call To Combat, who won over 1 950m, out of a Scuffleberg mare who won over 2 000m.
Punters should get off to a good start with Ebony Knight in race one, a Maiden over 1 200m. He showed good speed over 1 200m last time and just failed. He now has a fair draw of five.
As a four-year-old he has a 4,5kg weight for age advantage over the biggest threat Plum British. The latter is speedy and has been backed in both of his starts. He started slowly on debut, but jumped well in his second start over 1 000m. He then stayed on well for second, suggesting he would handle the step up to 1 200m. Furthermore, he has a plum draw of two.
An interesting runner here is Kings Landing, who could represent good place value. In his penultimate start over 1 200m, he stayed on in eye catching style from a hopeless position.
In his next start over 1 450m he moved up in eye catching style, but was then run out of the places late, suggesting he would appreciate a return to 1 200m. He now has a plum draw, so should be within striking distance when starting his finishing effort.
The selection for race three, a Maiden Plate for fillies and mares over 2 000m, is Fish River Canyon. She faced a promising sort last time over 1 600m and was beaten 6,75 lengths into second. She should enjoy the step up in trip and is preferred to the other form horse in the race, Hallucination. The latter probably has more ability but over raced in a 1600m race last time and duly found little extra. Therefore, a step up in trip does not augur well.
An interesting runner on the day is Consequentially, who runs in the fifth race, a MR 73 Handicap for fillies and mares over 2 000m. She had caught the eye last season in the strong centre of Cape Town. Being a well bred filly by Silvano, significant progress could have been expected this season as a four-year-old.
She duly won her maiden, but ran moderately in her next two starts. However, the disappointment was put to bed last time out when blinkers were applied in a 2 000m fillies and mares handicap. She swept past the opposition and won full of running by six lengths. She was given the maximum raise of eight points.
She is likely running off a capped merit rating and can win again over the same trip from a fair draw with the blinkers staying on.
David Thiselton