The new Vodacom Durban July favourite Legal Eagle will almost certainly be the best weighted horse on paper that the Vodacom Durban July has seen since merit ratings were introduced to South African in 1999, as the handicappers have raised him eight points to 120 for his 4,3 length romp in the Gr 3 Jubilee Handicap over 1800m on Sunday, and on form he looks to be worth every one of those points.

His July weight will remain unaltered on 54kg, because the weights were published in the week before the Jubilee Handicap. This means he will be 4kg better off than he should be in a true handicap. He will be 3kg better off than he would be if the weights had been set after the Jubilee, because the maximum weight for a three-year-old in the July is 57kg.

Anton Marcus warned straight after Sunday’s race that there should not be a “knee jerk”  reaction to Legal Eagle’s easy victory.

However, whichever way it is looked at, the form does not support his caution.

Legal Eagle beat Judicial by 4,3 lengths and Killua Castle by 5,1 lengths when giving them 3,5kg and 1kg respectively. In the month of June three-year-olds receive an allowance of 2kg from older horses over a distance of 1800m, meaning Legal Eagle’s performance was about 20 merit rated points superior to Judicial’s and 16 merit rated points superior to Killua Castle’s.

Wylie Hall beat Judicial by 9,2 lengths in the President’s Champions Challenge over 2000m at level weights and beat Killua Castle by 6,6 lengths in that race when giving him 1kg. His performance was therefore about 16 merit rated points superior to Judicial’s and 13 merit rated points superior to Killua Castle’s.

Wylie Hall now has to give Legal Eagle 4kg in the Vodacom. That amount of weight would be worth four merit rated points considering three-year-olds should receive an allowance of 2kg from older horses in the month of July over a distance of 2200m.

Therefore, on a line through Killua Castle, Legal Eagle should beat  Wylie Hall by 4,75 lengths in the July and on a line through Judicial he should beat Wylie Hall by 4,1 lengths.

The above calculations were made by using the official handicapping factor of 2.0, that is the drag effect measured in 0,5kg units of races from 1300-1800m, and the official factor of 1,7, the drag effect measured in 0,5kg of races from 1801-2200m. It also used the official allocation of one merit rated point per 0,5kg of weight.

It can get become very confusing but amateur handicapping can give punters an edge and the website http://www.nhra.co.za/pubs/docs/handicapping/Handicapping_Guidelines.pdf is well worth studying.

The bookmakers  initially shortened Legal Eagle to 4/1 after his Jubilee run, but have been now forced to cramp the odds even further to 5/2.

Previous favourite Futura, who is also merit rated 120 and has to carry 60kg, has drifted out to 7/2 and Majmu has gone right out to 6/1. Wylie Hall on 7/1 and French Navy on 10/1 are next best in the betting.

By David Thiselton

Picture: Legal Eagle (JC Photos)