History sides with Legislate
PUBLISHED: January 8, 2015
Michael Clower
Record-breaking Legislate is difficult to oppose in Saturday’s L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate and even harder to back with his price shortening almost by the day. You couldn’t even get 1-2 for much of yesterday.
It’s an incredible race for favourites. They have won seven of the last nine and even the usual imponderable of the pace is seemingly not an issue for the four-year-old who is bidding to join the select group (seven in the last 50 years) who have completed the Durban July-Queen’s Plate double.
Justin Snaith insists: “We don’t mind if the gallop is fast or slow” and Richard Fourie goes further, saying: “The slower they go the better for me because my horse can quicken better than any of these. He is in a good place and I am very confident.”
Most of the opposition – trainers as well as jockeys – believe the gallop will be far from searching and Futura’s rider Bernard Fayd’Herbe, bidding for his fifth Queen’s Plate, echoes the views of many when he says: “Normally there is a decent pace in the Queen’s Plate but I don’t see it this time, and that will be in Legislate’s favour.”
Louis The King, rated only half a length behind Legislate and second favourite at 4-1, is a real racehorse who finishes like a train and fights like a tiger. But this mile, surely, is a bit on the short side?
“Maybe at this stage but not definitely,” answers Geoff Woodruff who won this with Jet Master in 2000 and again with Yard-Arm four years later. “A decent pace would help but it doesn’t look as if we are going to get that.”
Woodruff has already ruled out making the running with 25-1 shot Tellina who was nibbled at 33-1 earlier in the week. “You can’t sacrifice one man’s horse for another in a R1 million race,” he bluntly points out.
Gold Onyx needs further – he was a close third in the Gold Cup – but he, like all bar fellow 40-1 shot Ashton Park and Kingvoldt, is also in the J & B Met three weeks later and setting a strong gallop into the wind is hardly an ideal prep for Cape Town’s richest race.
This is the smallest Queen’s Plate field for 13 years and Kingvoldt is only the seventh three-year-old to run during that period. The Cape Guineas third has been friendless in the market all week, drifting from 8-1 to 14-1, and he won’t lead either.
“I will leave it to Karl Neisius,”says Joey Ramsden, bidding for his fourth win. “But he has some pretty useful form over six furlongs so there is no reason for him to be rushing off to the front.”
The one horse other than the favourite for whom a slow gallop might not be a major disadvantage is Futura, simply because his cough-induced hold-up means he won’t be at peak fitness.
He has gone out from 4-1 to 6-1 – and is looking increasingly each way value at that price – but Brett Crawford is keeping his feet firmly on the ground and his sights directly on the Met.
“Futura has pace and he can quicken but he likes to do so off a good pace,”the Philippi trainer points out, seemingly determined not to over-buoy hopes that were so cruelly dashed when Jackson went close in the last two years. “I now think it’s the Met when we can really trouble this horse of the Snaiths.”
Last year’s third Jet Aglow was yesterday installed 4-1 favourite with Betting World for the Maine Chance Farms Paddock Stakes and Dennis Drier, bidding for his third successive win, reports: “It’s a tough field but I think she is better than last year.”
Pine Princess was done no favours by Arcetri Pink on Wednesday but Mike de Kock, bidding for his fifth win, has gone to inordinate lengths to get her here. Hammie’s Hooker is rated nearly three lengths better than the rest and looks value at 11-2, particularly as Mike Bass says: “I think she is in good shape and I know Bernard is happy with her.”
Legislate to stake his claim
PUBLISHED: January 8, 2015
David Thiselton
Legislate looks to have the makings of a great racehorse and could join recent winners of the Gr 1 L’Ormarin’s Queen’s Plate like Pocket Power, Gimmethegreenlight and Variety Club as celebrated victors of this prestigious weight for age (wfa) 1600m event if he pulls it off at Kenilworth tomorrow.
The Justin Snaith-trained Dynasty colt proved he is getting better all the time by breaking the 1600m Kenilworth Old Course record in impressive style in his seasonal reappearance. He is difficult to oppose tomorrow, especially considering that most of the main dangers appear to be eyeing the J&B Met as their chief target.
Geoff Woodruff is viewing this as a “stepping stone” race for the J&B Met for his charges Louis The King and Tellina. The Triple Crown and Sansui Summer Cup winner Louis The King is considered by Woodruff to be more at home over 2000m, but his most impressive form has arguably been over 1600m. The phenomenal turn of foot he displayed when winning the Gauteng Guineas will make him a danger.
Tellina has improved with gelding, according to Woodruff, and was only 0,75 lengths off Yorker and the champion miler Capetown Noir in the Gr 1 wfa HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes over 1600m last year, so could make his presence felt.
The only three-year-old in the race Kingvoldt is only a couple of lengths off Act Of War, who looks to be high class, so he could be a danger over an ideal trip.
Jet Explorer finished strongest of all last year for a 1,55 length third and has enjoyed a fine preparation, so could be in the top three from a good draw.
Futura has had an interrupted preparation, so won’t be at his peak according to trainer Brett Crawford, but this perhaps makes him interesting as a classy sort over a trip a touch short of his best.
Ashton Park is in a race against time to make it to the start after returning with a swollen joint when nearly brought down in the Diadem Stakes two weeks ago. Both Paterfamilias and Gold Onyx look better suited to the J&B Met.
Legislate is selected to win and it is tough to separate Louis The King, Jet Explorer, Kingvoldt, Futura and Tellina for the minor places, but they are selected in the order mentioned.
Jet Aglow has finished second and third respectively in the last two runnings of the Gr 1 Maine Chance Paddock Stakes and has enjoyed a fine preparation for this year’s renewal, so could give Dennis Drier and Sean Cormack a hattrick of wins in this prestigious weight for age fillies and mares event. However, she faces an ultra-competitive field.
Jet Belle caught the eye in her recent preparation and beat Jet Aglow in the wfa Gr 2 Gold Bracelet over 2000m at Greyville on Super Saturday.
Hammie’s Hooker has developed into a high class sort, but is possibly better over a touch shorter and she also ran a bit below par in the Diadem Stakes over 1200m in her preparation.
Inara ran a cracking 2,5 length second to the mighty Majmu in the Avontuur Estate Cape Filllies Guineas and will appreciate this step up in trip.
Pine Princess and Athina travelled from Johannesburg during the week. Pine Princess beat older horses in a Gr 3 over this trip at Turffontein and has enjoyed a good preparation. Athina is one of only two Gr 1 winners in the field and travelled well according to trainer Joey Soma, who was expecting a “massive run” over an ideal distance.
Maybe Yes was a classy winner of the Gr 2 KRA Guineas last season and being a year older should now get this trip. Acrostar had a bit too much to do last time out in the Victress Stakes over course and distance but Rchard Fourie has retained faith at the expense of Victress Stakes winner Jet Supreme.
The selection is Jet Belle to beat Jet Aglow with Inara, Hammie’s Hooker and Maybe Yes next best.
The Gr 2 Glorious Goodwood Peninsula Handicap is also very competitive, but Power King is getting better and better since recent gelding and could win from Helderberg Blue, Arion, True Master and Dynastic Power.
A stumbling block for exotics could be the Listed Politician Stakes which is very open. However, Balance Sheet is tipped as he will appreciate the step up in trip, is well drawn and escaped a merit rated raise after finishing seventh in the Grand Parade Cape Guineas, so is reasonably well weighted.
The first leg of the Pick 6 could be won by Valerio, but Night In Seattle, Fire Master, Evening Storm, Man From Milan and Henry Of York could also be considered in that order.
The horses that make most appeal in the second leg of the Pick 6 in order are Happy Forever, Savannah Song, Villa Del Largo, Dressed in Cotton and Captain On The Run.
The first leg of the PA is tough but Provenance should come on a lot for his debut when staying on from an unfavourable draw and is the suggestion.
Soma bullish with Athina
PUBLISHED: January 8, 2015
David Thiselton
The Joey Soma-trained Fort Wood filly Athina is one of only two Gr 1 winners in the Maine Chance Paddock Stakes field over 1800m at Kenilworth on Saturday and arrived in Cape Town on Wednesday after the long journey from her Turffontein base.
Soma said she had travelled well and was expecting a “massive run”. He believed her unplaced run in the Gr 1 Sansui Summer Cup could be ignored as they had gone “a joke of a pace” and the ground had also turned out heavy too, which had not suited her. He added that she was fit and well and would love the 1800m trip.
He was also pleased to have been able to book Piere Strydom for the race. The great jockey will have to help her overcome a tricky draw of nine. Soma admitted that it was a very open contest.
Athina won the Gr 1 Wilgerbosdrift SA Fillies Classic over this trip at Turffontein last year, where she showed a fine burst of finishing speed, so she should enjoy this galloping track. She will return to Johannesburg straight after the race.
Legislate into ‘evens’ for Met
PUBLISHED: January 7, 2015
Michael Clower
Mike de Kock’s announcement that the brilliant Avontuur Cape Fillies Guineas winner Majmu will miss the J & B Met has seen the favourite Legislate shorten from 18-10 to evens.
Betting World has also tightened Futura from 4-1 to 7-2, Louis The King from 7-1 to 6-1 and Act Of War from 15-2 to 7-1. Dynamic, Jet Explorer, Killua Castle and King Of Pain (all 33-1 shots) are now on 25-1 as is Power King who was previously on 40-1.
Arcetri Pink, Geoff Woodruff’s first runner of the Cape Town campaign, could manage no closer than third in the 1 400m fillies conditions plate at Kenilworth today despite starting 13-10 favourite.
But Woodruff was quite happy with the performance, saying: “It was more than satisfactory. The trip was too short for her and she was running on at the end. She hadn’t been on grass since she won at Turffontein at the end of November and I thought I would run her rather than gallop her. She goes for the Klawervlei Majorca next.”
Red Flame, given a confident ride by champion S’Manga Khumalo, ran out a convincing length winner and will also be in the line-up for the January 31 Grade 1.
Neil Bruss said: “She kicked at the right time and went away from them. I couldn’t have asked for more.”
Runner-up Supreme Sunset is in the Freightmore Sceptre Stakes on Saturday week. Dennis Drier today supplemented Gathering Fame for this 1 200m Grade 2 and Justin Snaith put in Highly Decorated.
Drier glowing with confidence
PUBLISHED: January 7, 2015
David Thiselton
Dennis Drier said that he “couldn’t be happier” with Jet Aglow ahead of Saturday’s Gr 1 Maine Chance Farms Paddock Stakes, while Glen Kotzen was also very pleased with one of the former’s chief dangers, Jet Belle.
Drier and his stable jockey Sean Cormack will be seeking respective hattricks in the big race, having won it together with the amazing Beach Beauty in the last two years.
Jet Aglow has finished second and third respectively in the last two runnings and Drier said, “It’s a competitive field but she hasn’t put a foot wrong since arriving in the Cape.”
The five-year-old Jet Master mare finished a far from disgraced fifth in the Gr 2 Lanzerac Green Point Stakes over 1600m behind Legislate on her seasonal reappearance and then won the Listed Cape Premier Sales Jet Master Stakes over 1600m last time out when admittedly well weighted. She jumps from pole position with Cormack up and looks the horse to beat.
Kotzen said last month that Jet Belle, who is also a five-year-old by Jet Master, had not suffered from the travel sickness that had affected her after her journey from Johannesburg last year. However, he said that it had been agreed not to give her a hard time in her last race, as they had wanted to see where they were with her after her very tough race in the Sansui Summer Cup. In the latter race she hit the front early in testing conditions before fading out. In a Conditions Plate over 1500m on December 20, she ran on in eyecatching style and that looked to be the perfect preparation for Saturday’s race.
She beat Jet Aglow in the weight for age Gr 2 Gold Bracelet over 2000m at Greyville on Super Saturday, so is going to be a big threat from draw seven. Kotzen said, “She doesn’t give much away at home but she looks magnificent and I think she will run a cracker. Greg (Cheyne)is also very pleased with her.”
Kotzen runs Gone Baby Gone in the Gr 2 Glorious Goodwood Peninsula Handicap over 1800m, where he jumps from pole position with Christopher Puller up and carries bottom weight of 53kg off his 91 merit rating.
Kotzen said, “Greg said he should have run in the first three last time in the Jet Master Stakes as he was hampered at a crucial stage and became unbalanced, which broke his stride, and he then got going again and flew. That was a nice comeback after his disappointing Port Elizabeth run and he is flying in his work.”
Of his other runners on the day, Kotzen said that Ashram had a chance in the workrider’s race (race 1) as he had been unlucky last time out, although Aces United looks to be the one to beat. He added that the first-timer by Captain Al in the second race, Entre Nous, was a smart filly and that the first-timer in the third, Cathy Pacific, was one to watch over more ground.