Long-time favourite Viva Rio rates no more than a tentative selection for the ARF Commemorative Cape Derby at Kenilworth’s Prawn Festival meeting tomorrow. The form of the 18-10 chance is much the best – his Cape Guineas second sees him rated a minimum of 4.5kg clear of the rest – but this is a bad race for favourites.

Every one of them has been beaten in the last six runnings when the winners have included a 28-1 shock as well as others starting at 16-1 and 13-1 – and the gelding’s stamina could well have a hole in it. True, he is by Oratorio who won the Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes over this trip, but most of the wins chalked up in the first three generations on the dam’s side have been over 1 200m.

This could open the race right up. King Of Gems (9-1) won the Concorde Cup and can be excused his disappointing effort in the Guineas as things didn’t go his way that day. Sachdev (9-2) also has strong form claims while Politician-winning stable companion Silver Host is preferred by both Richard Fourie and punters who backed him from 11-2 to 15-4 during the week.

The best outsider could well be Golden Ducat at 16-1. This is a half-brother to both Hawwaam and Rainbow Bridge and last time’s Pinnacle fourth was his first run since being gelded. He is almost certainly a lot better than that.

Kasimir is a confident choice to repeat his victory in last year’s Khaya Stables Diadem Stakes when he became the first successful outright favourite in six seasons. In the Cape Flying Championship he was a race short, and not fully tightened up, but he was still less than a length third to Russet Air and his main threat – at least so far as the betting was concerned – was removed when Run Fox Run was scratched yesterday with an abnormal blood count.

Of course Russet Air could do it again, particularly with Aldo Domeyer once more in the irons, as could Bold Respect who was only beaten on the nod while Chimichuri Run just might be a little bit better than last time’s fifth would suggest.

The favourite in the Vasco Da Gama Prix Du Cap has been successful in three of the last four years but this looks a hotter renewal. The 2-1 favourite Front And Centre is under something of a cloud after failing to fire for no apparent reason in the Majorca and the same applies with Santa Clara. Golden Chance has claims on her Sceptre third but she was beaten more than five lengths.

I prefer to take a chance with 15-2 shot Larentina who was fourth in the Cape Fillies Guineas and who ran as if this could be her trip when finishing like a train under top weight in a 1 200m handicap four weeks ago.

It seems pointless looking beyond Erik The Red in the Kepu Cape Of Good Hope Nursery. The price (6-10) may look prohibitive but the way he won the Met day Listed race – making most and seemingly not all out at the finish – was particularly impressive.

Delta Queen is favourite for the Capetown Noir Kenilworth Fillies Nursery after toying with the opposition on debut but Stuck On You (third to Erik The Red in a good field) is the one with the form in the book and accordingly she gets the vote.

By Michael Clower

Turffontein Standside’s nine race meeting tomorrow includes a Pinnacle Stakes event and two Graduation Plates which have attracted class horses. The Pinnacle Stakes event over 1 100m is very difficult to read as many of the horses will not be at their peaks and, furthermore, the ones who make most appeal have landed disadvantageous low draws. 

Double O’ Eight is in fine form and has not only landed a good draw of eight but has 4kg claimer Philasande Mxoli aboard. Rebel’s Champ has landed the unwanted number one draw. However, he has won here from a similar draw before. As a younger horse he did not enjoy racing among other horses but preferred to be on his own.

He can thus take the shortest way home tomorrow and should not be concerned about racing in isolation. His class could do the rest.

Mardi Gras is a top class sprinter who has always struck as one who would get better and better with age. He duly won with ease in November over 1160m here despite returning from a six month layoff.

He did have a high draw that day so could afford to take a sit and run on. Tomorrow it will be tricky from draw two and apprentice Luke Ferraris is going to have his work cut out. Mighty High is the best weighted horse and would have benefited from her last outing, which was her first of the season.

She has a reasonable draw of six. Basadi Faith won her first four starts as a juvenile including the SA Fillies Nursery and would have needed her recent comeback from a suspension for the epistaxis she suffered in the Grade 1 Allan Robertson last May. She jumps from draw five and has 2,5kg claimer Jeffrey Syster aboard.

Mombela can’t be ignored as he proved last time he enjoys a bit of cut in the ground when finishing second to the top sprinter Mr Flood in the Grade 3 Tommy Hotspur.  His low draw might not be that much of a disadvantageous as he hung in badly in that race.

In the first of the Graduation Plates, for fillies and mares over 1400m, Gaian Glory has a tough draw of eight out of eight but this Visionaire filly relaxes well in the running and has a fine turn of foot. Piere Strydom will be aware that in the Emperor’s Palace Ready To Run Cup over this course and distance she made up a lot of ground far too quickly and consequently hit the front too soon.

He will be able to afford to sit on her for a while in the long straight.

Kay Tee Perry beat the promising Cornish Pomodoro cosily second time out over 1160m after showing good cruising speed and a fine turn of foot. This Argentinian-bred is by Orpen, who was top class over six furlongs as a two-year-old and later became a useful miler. Kay Tee Perry thus should enjoy the step up in trip and from draw two is the dark horse. Stage Dance has good form, is drawn in pole over a suitable trip and wears a first time tongue tie.

Gallic Princess charged late to win last time over 1160m with first time blinkers on. Considering she settled well with the headgear on and stays this trip she can be dropped out from draw six of eight and then run on. Frosted Steel is officially the best weighted horse. She still has to prove she enjoys this trip and now gets blinkers on from a tricky draw of five. In the second Graduation Plate over 1800m Heart Stwings has caught the eye from day one and this distance suited horse is now coming into her own.

Secret Dream lands a good draw over a suitable trip and as she is 3,5kg better off with Wild Date for a half-a-length beating over 1600m, so she should reverse the form on paper.

However, the concern is she has choked up a couple of times in her races, including once with her now regular tongue tie on.

By David Thiselton

To take a bet go to www.tabgold.co.za or www.trackandball.co.za

Front And Centre is on a recovery mission in the Vasco Da Gama Prix Du Cap at Kenilworth on Saturday after inexplicably flopping in the Bidvest Majorca.

Last season’s WSB Cape Fillies Guineas winner started third favourite for the Met day Grade 1 but finished with only three behind her. The course vet reported that Anton Marcus’s mount came back with abrasions on her left hind, suggesting that she had a bit of a rough passage, but Brett Crawford is not so sure.

He said yesterday: “We didn’t find much wrong. She just seemed to have no gate speed, she was never really travelling well and she produced no finishing effort.”

It was the first time that the four-year-old had raced with blinkers and, although she has been declared to wear them again, Crawford is in two minds about fitting them a second time.

The bookmakers seem to think that Front And Centre will run considerably better this time and most have her favourite at 2-1 with Santa Clara (two and a half lengths in front of Front And Centre when ninth in the Majorca) vying for second favouritism – at around 6-1 – with Cartier Sceptre third Golden Chance.

Crawford runs three in the ARF Commemorative Cape Derby in a bid to win the race for the third time following Jackson (2012) and Edict Of Nantes three years ago. Aldo Domeyer’s mount King Of Gems is the highest rated, and the shortest priced, of the trio and he wears a tongue tie for the second successive race.

“He makes a bit of a noise and we thought the tongue tie would assist him,” explained the Philippi trainer. “He has been doing well, he looks well and his work has been good.”

The Concorde Cup winner is a 17-2 chance with Viva Rio hot favourite at 17-10 ahead of the Justin Snaith pair Sachdev (5-1) and Silver Host (11-2).

By Michael Clower

It would appear from media reports that one of the triggers that precipitated the violent conduct by a small group of irate punters at Hollywoodbets Greyville last week, was primarily aimed at jockey Anton Marcus.

However, his favourite in the first race fractured a leg and the Marcus-ridden favourite in the second, Fergie’s Rock, pulled up lame and unplaced which appeared to spark the protest.

Among other grievances that have subsequently emerged was that Hollywoodbets, the racecourse sponsors and leading bookmakers, also sponsor trainers and jockeys that these punters contended could lead to races being ‘fixed’.

Hollywoodbets have vehemently denied all allegations and there is no evidence to suggest otherwise.

Marcus, who is not sponsored by Hollywoodbets and rides freelance for the most, is one of the sought-after jockeys for his proven expertise in the saddle and consequently rides many more fancied horses than his weighing room counterparts.

He does not always get his pick of rides, “I’m often turned down,” he says, but it stands to reason that his judgement, or that of the trainers who often request his services, may not always be on the mark. In other cases, his mounts may be having an off day or develop some other physical niggle during a race, a fate that can befall any other horse or rider.

Marcus, like all other jockeys, earns his basic salary through riding fees so out of necessity of putting bread on the table, will take rides even if their chances of winning are remote.

The list of possibilities is endless but the simple fact is that his mere presence in the saddle trims the odds on his mounts, whether they have the form to win or not, and are often ‘false favourites’.

The ‘educated’ punter is well aware of this and does not fall into this betting trap easily.

Marcus currently has a national winning strike rate of 30.4% for the season so far, a trend that goes back a decade, while log-leading jockey Warren Kennedy has an 18% winning strike rate. Those percentages increase on their home courses with Marcus on 32.2% and Kennedy 19.4%.

While you can read whatever you like into statistics, Kennedy is riding for his first National Jockey’s Title and the more rides he gets the better his chances. The fact that he still boasts a winning strike rate of close to 20% is testimony to his ability. Marcus, a three-time National Champion and not chasing the title, is more judicious and has 69 winners from just 227 rides. Kennedy has 165 winners from 898 rides.

The national average of winning favourites at all of the country’s courses, Zimbabwe and Mauritius included, for the past three years is constant at around 30% that equates to close to one in every three favourites winning.

By Andrew Harrison

See tables below:

Summer Pudding has come out of her win in the Grade 2 Wilgerbosdrift Gauteng Fillies Guineas very well and the Wilgerbosdrift SA Triple Tiara dream is still alive.

Trainer Paul Peter also has three horses aimed at the second leg of the SA Triple Crown, Astrix, Western Fort and Battle Of Alesia.

Peter believed before last Wednesday evening’s meeting the Fillies Guineas would be the hardest leg of the SA Triple Tiara for Summer Pudding to win as the mile is on the sharp end of her stamina range.

She displayed both her courage and stamina reserves in testing conditions when fighting back after the strong-finishing Rio’s Winter had ranged up to her with 100m to go.

The Silvano filly is out of Cherry On The Cake, who is a half-sister to SA Triple Tiara heroine Cherry On The Top.  

Peter said yesterday, “All is on song for the SA Fillies Classic (a R1 million Grade 1 event run on March 7, also sponsored by Wilgerbosdrift).”

Astrix only just failed to hold on for third in the Grade 2 Gauteng Guineas. He was beaten a short-head by Green Laser and was 3,80 lengths behind the winner Ikigai.

Peter said he had needed it and jockey Callan Murray was adamant he would stay the 1800m trip of the SA Classic.

Peter said the tactic to take Astrix handy to try and overcome his wide draw had also probably been a mistake and is now of the opinion he is a horse who needs to “take a sit”. This strategy will likely be used in the SA Classic.

Western Fort, a colt by Elusive Fort, was unplaced on his debut over 1600m last October but followed up with two impressive victories over 1900m and 2000m respectively. He started odds-on for his last start, a Graduation Plate over 2000m, but was beaten narrowly into second by the filly Diorama, to whom he gave 7kg.

However, Peter believed he had a valid excuse and said, “A line can be drawn through that run. He got a bad bump and then had no option but to go to the front. He is not a horse who wants to lead.”

Battle Of Alesia finished a 4,75 length fourth in the TAB/Betting World Dingaans.

He subsequently disappointed when a 1,75 length fourth in a strong Graduation Plate.

However, Peter said, “Warren said he wasn’t trying in that last race. He needed gelding and is better than that run. He has come on a lot since gelding.”

Battle Of Alesia is out of a Fort Wood maiden who placed over 2200m, so he should love the 1800m trip.

Both Astrix and Battle Of Alesia are by the new stallion sensation Vercingetorix, who is a son of the champion sire Silvano.

Peter said, “I don’t have enough Vercingetorix’s, I only have three!”

Peter was hoping he had a shout of winning the SA Classic.

He pointed out there might be a stamina doubt with Gauteng Guineas winner Ikigai and said that although Shango won the Dingaans in commanding style he was by Captain Of All, which also created a bit of doubt.

In other Peter yard news he said the classy sprinter Fly Away had hated the soft ground in the Grade 3 Tommy Hotspur Handicap, where she finished unplaced, and they hoped the going would be on top for her next engagement.

Peter has a four runners at the Vaal today and made Benji, who runs in the seventh, a Progress Plate over 1100m, a “massive runner”.

He said, “It didn’t pan out well for him last time but he still won and he will be better down the straight.”

By David Thiselton