Turffontein has an intriguing eight race card today and the those who do their homework could be rewarded with some healthy exotic dividends.

The highest rated race on the card is a 2600m Pinnacle Stakes event. It is not easy to find a best bet on the card, and staying events are not usually the races to find them in, but nevertheless the Galileo colt Kinaan is the nomination. He is officially 3,5kg under sufferance with the long striding filly Zafira.

Furthermore, the latter hails from the stable of Weiho Marwing, who has an outstanding record in staying races. Lastly, Zafira is by Silvano, so should be coming into her own now as a four-year-old. Kinaan beat Zafira by 3 lengths in the Gr 2 eLan Gold Cup over 3200m and is now 3,5kg worse off, which should put the filly slightly ahead on paper over this trip.

However, there are two factors which hand the verdict to Kinaan. Firstly, he was caught wide the whole way in the Gold Cup, while the filly had the rail. Secondly, he has a good recent run under his belt over the too sharp 1450m, where he ran a surprise second at odds of 28/1. Zafira, on the other hand, is making her seasonal reappearance.

Kinaan looks to be on the up and on a card where bankers are not easy to come by he is the one who is also nominated for that award. However, the less brave should include Zafira, because another aspect in her favour is she loves this course and is unbeaten in two starts here. Kissimee is 2,5kg under sufferance with Zafira, but actually comes out ahead of her on their last meeting over 2200m in January, so she must be considered. Storm Warning beat a disappointing Kissimee by six lengths over course and distance last time and they face each other on the same terms. However, Storm Warning now has a wide draw to overcome, while Kissimee is well drawn again.

The Elmo Effect faces Storm Warning on the same terms for a mere 0,2 length beating in the aforementioned race, so has a shout again, despite officially being 5,5kg under sufferance with Zafira. Coby is not far behind The Elmo Effect and Storm Warning on the form of that last race, but has a worse draw now. Joint topweight Arch Rival can never be ignored, although he is best suited to the more galloping standside track. Penteliko has Anthony Delpech aboard over a suitable course and distance from a good draw, but looks held by like of The Elmo Effect and others.  Royal Honour and Talbec look to have impossible tasks at the weights.

The meeting opens with a very interesting maiden over 1600m. The hard knocking Fish River Canyon is proven over the course and distance and is drawn well in five. She looks to be an improving sort too. However, she up against two fillies in Orchid Island and Written who will both definitely relish this step up in trip. They will likely improve on their debuts too, having both finished like trains over 1200m on debut for respective close up placings.

Orchid Island is beautifully bred being by Silvano out of a stakes winning daughter of Ilha da Vitoria, Ilha Grande. However, she faces a tough draw of 12, so Anthony Delpech will have his work cut out. Written is by Western Winter out of a Saumarez mare and looks to have plenty of scope, being quite immature in appearance. It will be interesting to see whether experience or class decides the outcome, as the latter pair might be the better horses in the long run. However, Fish River Canyon is given the vote to beat Orchid Island and Written.

The value bet on the card comes in the seventh in the form of the Alec Laird-trained Judpot mare Endearing. This is a suitable course and distance and she is now a whopping nine points lower than her last winning mark. In her last start over 1200m she was caught wide at this course against the boys, so it was not a bad effort. She is three points lower here and is back against her own gender from a plum draw. Furthermore, she looks likely to appreciate the step up in trip as she has been staying on lately over shorter.

It’s not a fantastic field and the main danger could be Might As Well, who did well from the front last time over this trip at the Vaal and is now better drawn and two points lower in the merit ratings. The favourite might be Warm White Night Alice, who converted short odds second time out over 1200m at Scottsville on July 23. However, she showed a lot of pace there and her speedy pedigree also creates a stamina doubt, so from draw ten here in her seasonal reappearance there are question marks.

Mythical Magic will be coming into her own being by Silvano and if dropped out from a very high draw she looks a sort who has the class to turn it on in the straight. Gold Shades was not disgraced against a fair sort last time over 1400m and Piere Strydom is an eyecatching booking. Ladies Club is fairly handicapped on her best form and might be looking for this trip now, having run on well late over 1200m last time out. She can’t be ignored from a plum draw.

David Thiselton

Turffontein Thursday (inside track) Oct 13 Race Previews by David Thiselton

Race 1:

Preview: FISH RIVER CANYON has been knocking on the door and can get it right here over a suitable course and distance from a good draw. The well bred Silvano filly ORCHID ISLAND made a good debut over 1200 and should relish the step up in trip, but she does have a tough draw. WRITTEN made a good debut over 1200m and is another who will enjoy the step up in trip, so she has a chance from a fair draw with Gavin Lerena up. (David Thiselton 1-11-12)

Race 2:

Preview: SHIVERING SEA has been ultra consistent and with Gavin Lerena up has a chance, despite a tricky draw, as she is back in a handicap having run well in a Graduation Plate last time over 1200m. LEVI LADY is quick and from pole position looks capable of following up on her maiden win off a 74 merit rating. MOVIE SHOW is ideally course and distance suited and well drawn off a competitive merit rating. (David Thiselton 3-7-4)

Race 3:

Preview: SEEKING GOLD made a good debut when unfancied and showed pace in that 1450m event so should enjoy this trip from pole position. KANTARA QUEEN is by Elusive Fort and is a half-sister to Silk Road, who won his first two starts as a two-year-old at Kenilworth, so she is interesting on debut from a good draw. MALACHITE SUNBIRD had some fair Cape Town form and likely needed his Highveld debut, so Strydom is an interesting booking from a good draw. SISTINE CHAPEL made a fair debut and the form has been franked. BEING FABULOUS is an Australian-bred by High Chaparral and Gavin Lerena rides, albeit from a tough draw. (David Thiselton 10-8-1)

Race 4:

Preview: PISTOLERO is doing well off this mark and a wide draw should not be of much concern as he finishes strongly from off the pace. TOUR OF DUTY is well regarded and hasn’t been disgraced in his last two in plate events against fair opposition, so has a chance in his handicap debut. CAPTAINOFMYHEART has run well against fair opposition and can be involved provided a breathing noise he made last time does not affect his chances. (David Thiselton 11-4-3)

Race 5:

Preview: KINAAN is a useful stayer and should be involved here. He is officially 3,5kg under sufferance with Zafira, but has a recent run under his belt and beat Zafira in the Gold Cup at level weights by three lengths, which probably puts him slightly ahead here on paper. ZAFIRA is officially best in at the weights and comes from a yard known for their success over staying trips. She is unbeaten in two outings at this course and should enjoy the trip. KISSIMEE is 7kg better off with Zafira for a mere 0,8 length beating over 2450m in January. The weight for age scale has changed 4,5kg since then in Zafira’s favour, but that still puts Kissimee 2,5kg better off, so she must have a shout despite being officially 2,5kg under sufferance with Zafira. (David Thiselton 3-6-7)

Race 6:

Preview: NAVARRO should be coming into his own being by Silvano and can make amends for his last start, where he was a touch unlucky over 1600m. He likely need that last run and he will appreciate this step up in trip. STREAK appears to have his issues but is distance suited and has the ability to win this. BUBBLY REPLY won his maiden over course and distance from this same pole position draw two runs ago and ran a fair race first time out the maidens so has a chance in this uninspiring field. VICTORIOUS ROYAL has come into his own and goes well for this jockey so can go close over the course and distance of his last win. He runs on from behind so the wide draw is not much of a concern, although he is four points higher than his last win. There is not much between OLD OAK TREE and Navarro on formlines over shorter and being by Gimmethegrenlight he should also be improving. However, there might be a slight stamina question mark on pedigree. (David Thiselton 11-7-14)

Race 7:

Preview: ENDEARING, who was caught wide over 1200m against the boys last time, has dropped to an attractive merit rating and is drawn well over a suitable trip. She should be involved back against her own gender. MIGHT AS WELL made a bold bid from the front last time over this trip at the Vaal. She is now better drawn, is off a two point lower merit rating and she has run well in two starts over course and distance before, albeit both in the maidens.  MYTHICAL MAGIC ran a fair race at the end of July over 1400m from a tough draw the Vaal and could run on here into the money if dropped out from a wide draw. GOLD SHADES ran a fair race against a promising sort last time over 1400m at the Vaal and Strydom is an eye catching booking. LADIES CLUB ran on well last time over 1200m and is well dawn over a suitable trip. WARM NIGHT ALICE was backed to odds on second time out over 1200m at Scottsville and kept on well, but on pedigree and running style the trip might stretch her here especially from a wide draw after an 82 day layoff. (David Thiselton 2-8-1)

Race 8:

Preview: REFUGE showed a good turn of foot and found another gear to repel a challenge when winning over 1200m last time out. He will relish the step up in trip on pedigree and Strydom remains aboard. The high draw will make it tough but he does appear a type who can be switched on and off. DEALER’S CHARM is worth another chance dropping back to the trip of his eye catching maiden win and off a merit rating which has been lowered another two points. He has been disappointing since the maiden win so the fitting of blinkers is something else to not and he is also drawn well with Delpech up. ARPAD’s maiden win over 1400m has worked out well and he might also benefit from the drop back to this trip. He is also drawn well and has the very much in form Gavin Lerena up.  The improved KING AND EMPIRE has won well in his last two and has a chance from a good draw with stable jockey Fortune now up. Refuge comes out better than him if apprentice claims in the formlines are included,  but if they are ignored there is not much to separate them. ZEN MASTER can’t be ignored over a suitable course and distance from pole position. RAND CLUB made a fair comeback from a break of over a year when staying on well over 1200m at the beginning of last month and a repeat over this more suitable trip could see him involved. However, he has a very high draw to overcome and there is also the second run after a rest question mark. (David Thiselton 1-4-3)

Dennis Drier’s Cape Summer Of Champions string arrived safely in Cape Town on Monday after the long journey from Summerveld, which included a stopover in Colesburg.

The 25-strong team will as usual be based at the Philippi training centre.

Among them is the unbeaten three-year-old Gimmethegreenlight colt Hack Green, whose likely chief target is the Gr 1 Cape Guineas on December 17.

The others in the string are Anime, Chestnut ‘N Pearls, Desert Fighter, Ferrie, Horseguards, Joy To Joy, La Revere, Lee’s Star, Mogostar, Nauticus, Premier Dance, Rock On Baby, Rocky Valley, Sail, Seventh Plain, Sommerlied, Shogun, The High Life, Triptique, Wealthy, Generalissimo (who returns from a long layoff), Field Of Light (an unraced three-year-old full-sister to Jackson), Miss Frankel (an unraced two-year-old filly by Frankel out of the champion sprinter Val De Ra) and one other unraced youngster.

Drier is due to arrive in Cape Town tomorrow on Wednesday. He will divulge the feature race program of his string to the Racegoer later this week.

He and his wife Gill have just returned from England where they attended a couple of prestigious Sales’ together with Mary and Jessica Slack.

Drier was thrilled to have picked up three horses at Ireland’s leading yearling auction, the Goffs Orby Sale. They comprise a Cape Cross colt, a Cape Cross filly and a Dawn Approach filly, who were all bid for by Jehan Malherbe of Form Bloodstock.

Gill said, “We loved the Goffs Sale and being at the Tattersalls Sales (Newmarket) and visiting Abington Place (Mary Slack’s training stable at Newmarket) were amazing experiences.”

The Cape Cross colt is out of an unraced Clodovil (Danehill) mare, who is a half-sister to a Listed placed mare. The latter has in turn produced four stakes placed horses. The family includes the ill-fated Summerhill-based sire Bankable, whose only crop have had reasonable success in South Africa to date and include the Listed Derby Trial winner Bankable Teddy.

The Cape Cross filly is out of a five-time winning Mujadil (Storm Bird) mare, who is a half-sister to a Gr 1 winner in France and who won a Listed race in Italy herself. The filly is a half-sister to a Listed placed horse in England.

The Dawn Approach filly is out of a placed Notnowcato mare, who is a half-sister to Rizeena. The latter was a two-time Gr 1-winner and was the champion two-year-old filly in Ireland in 2013.

Drier has been sending a string down to Cape Town since the 2011/2012 season and has been more than just a thorn in the flesh of the powerful Cape yards. His first Cape runner in this period was fittingly sent out on Guy Fawkes day, when the gelding Kalinago cruised to a comfortable victory. This ignited fireworks which have not ceased since.

The great sprinter Val De Ra and the darling of the South African turf Beach Beauty were both part of that first string. The former got Drier’s Cape feature race ball rolling by winning the Gr 2 Southern Cross Stakes over 1000m by two lengths. She followed up by winning one of the most eagerly awaited sprints this century, downing What A Winter by 0,4 lengths in the Gr 1 Cape Flying Championship over 1000m. It was a thriller and Drier could not contain the tears of emotion.

It went some way to healing the wounds of the luckless first Cape campaign which Beach Beauty had suffered. However, the latter more than made up for it in the following two seasons. Her three Cape campaigns ultimately netted her three Gr 1s and a Gr 2, as well as a 1,85 length fifth and a 1,8 length third in two attempts at the J&B Met.

Drier’s five Cape campaigns this decade have yielded 17 feature race victories made up of four Gr 1s, six Gr 2s, two Gr 3s, four Listed races and one Non-Black Type event.

It could have been even more impressive had the brilliant colt Master Of My Fate not suffered rotten luck in the J&B Met of 2014 as well as a career ending injury later on.

The Drier yard failed to win a Gr 1 last season for the first time since the 2008/2009 term. A backlash can be expected and they should be followed.

David Thiselton

Champion trainer Sean Tarry has reacted to criticism levelled at a number of trainers who have declined to reveal information about their first-time runners to the public – following a Gold Circle initiative launched, as reported, in the interest of transparency and to promote the welfare of the punter.

Most trainers have obliged recently with short comments about their newcomers, but there are a few who have not been keen to part with information, and others who have refused to comment, period.

In reference to the article Trainer ‘No Comments’ Raises Ire published on the Sporting Post website, in which trainers were given a score out of 10 for cooperating (nor not cooperating) with the initiative, Tarry said that the issue has now turned into “name-and-shame” game which is not only unnecessary, but also unfair to the individuals concerned.

Tarry said: “I’d like to give my opinion on this matter and I trust it will be taken in the positive spirit intended.”

Tarry emphasised that once info is given, info is gone.

He explained: “We pay tax and we’re not sure where our tax rands are applied. We give to charity and we can’t be sure where in the pool our contributions end up going.  Information given by a trainer to an individual will always serve to benefit that individual first. I am not saying that the media who collect this information cannot be trusted – that’s not the issue at all.

“The point is, whomever compiles the information has first access, in theory, so the info will always remain the property of that person or a select few around him who can use it before it is disseminated to the public.

“Again, I am not suggesting dishonesty on behalf of the media, but let’s say, for example, that Tellytrack send out an interviewer to Randjesfontein who gets exclusive info on a first-timer in an interview with a trainer.

He or she says nothing to anyone, but while the interview clip is being prepared someone walks by the editing studio, hears the info and is now also in the know, in possession of information destined for dissemination to the public at large.

“Seriously, how would the public at large receive any exclusive information without someone else having been advantaged first? There are any number of scenarios like this that can affect the price of a first-time before the information reaches the public, or certain members of the public, the proportion who happens to be reading the info online or happens to be tuned in to Tellytrack at the time of dissemination.

Tarry also posed the question:  “How would the public benefit from us giving opinions on horses we are in reality unable to assess with authority until they’ve competed in a race?“

It is not easy for any trainer to “label” a horse, Tarry said. He elaborated: “From time to time you’ll get stars like Horse Chestnut or Variety Club who have freakish talent and are few and far between. They are the rare ones a trainer would have full confidence in.

“As for lesser talents, more of them will get beat than win when they are expected to win. Some young horses show good work and disappoint when they get into a race; others show nothing and surprise you on the racetrack.

Some pull up with ailments or breathing problems undetected before the race, others race too green to compete.”

Tarry said that he followed a process when planning to bet: “Personally I never have a bet until I’ve seen the runners in the parade ring on the day of the race, and I’ve compared them to others on the canter-down.

“An example. A month ago we fancied End Game to win her first start at Turffontein, we also had Written in the race, unfancied. As things turned out End Game was beaten half a length by David Nieuwenhuizen’s 5-1 shot Hurricane Bertha in a nine-horse field.  Written ran on so well she would probably have won in another stride! What would punters have said if I’d announced, on what we saw in work, that End Game was the fancied one, Written was unfancied and they ran the other way?”

Tarry said that, in his view, no professional or serious punters would ever splash out money on a “tip” from a trainer or a jockey. “Punters who sit and wait for info on first-timers are on a free trip to the poorhouse.

With no form exposed there is no way of comparing the runners in a race and also, the market for first-timers is small. How would any punter expect to get their bets on at the best price, whatever info they are in possession of?

“Betting opens sometimes half an hour before the first race, which makes it mostly impossible to claim a good price.

Punters with so- called info are able to take Opening Betting (OB) or Starting Price (SP) ahead of time, but chances are they will end up with the wrong odds most of the time as the betting market establishes itself.

“Betting on horses is a science of discipline that takes years of trial and error to master, and anyone with experience in racing will tell you that. What our punters need is more education, they need to study form, watch replays and be intimately involved with racing every day to be able to make a call on when to bet and when not to bet.”

Get a form book, go to the track and learn, Tarry advised punters. Look at all the variables and make your own form decisions.

He concluded: “By trying to force trainers to speak about first-timers the goal posts are being moved and punters could get hurt, rather than advantaged.

Trainers can be potentially embarrassed and castigated by a sometimes very immature betting public.”

“Personally I am always willing to help, to give pointers on my horses that have raced. I am also in favour of barrier trials for unraced horses which will give everyone an equal opportunity to compare young horses against each other on times recorded at the work track.

“But I think what we have here now is a situation that can turn sour and has been overblown in the media.  If we could “rubber stamp” our first-timers this would be an easy game, we’ll just make money every time and we’d be able to eliminate training fees altogether!

“Let’s respect those trainers who decline to make comments, and who really have nothing to be ashamed of in exercising their right not to comment.”

– Turf Talk

Durbanville Wednesday Oct 12 Race Previews by Warren Lenferna

Preview: SILVER RIDGE ran a much better race than he did on debut and showed encouraging improvement. He has a dreadful draw to overcome but if overcoming this disadvantage should be able to show more improvement and go very close to winning. PURPLE ROCK has been running well recently and should once again be right there at the finish – big chance. Watch the betting on the first timer CORTADA as he is by Var and could be absolutely anything. (Warren Lenferna 13-1-10)

2

Preview: ROCK STEWART (Trained by trainer Stewart) is lightly raced and has been knocking loudly at the door in her last two starts – she looks ready to win now. BUTTERFLY SPIRIT showed good improvement from run one to run two and this is always encouraging for the connections involved. She had her bit pulled through her mouth last time but still managed to run well! Stable is in top form and one that has a big chance. MOULINA gets the services of Andrew Fortune and anyone who ignores his mounts is taking a chance as he is riding winner after winner – her form is consistent and it looks set to continue that way. (Warren Lenferna 4-8-3)

3

Preview: CANDALEEYAH should go very close to winning if able to overcome her dreadful draw – leave it to Andrew Fortune the wizard! Strong winning selection and the stable is in form as well, to add to the confidence. VARIFAST tries blinkers, gets a light weight and a great draw – these three factors should help make her chances very bright. She is lightly raced and probably has a bit more to offer – watch! DROP THE PILOT was slow out a length and very one paced last time. She is surely better than that run reflects? I wouldn’t leave her out of the quartet and am more than happy to give her another chance. (Warren Lenferna 1-9-3)

4

Preview: LOUISIANA took on very much stronger last time and acquitted herself very well when finishing second with legitimate excuses. She looks hard to beat here despite her carrying top weight. LA FLAMBEE is as honest as the day is long and is like an ATM for her connections! Every time she comes to the races she simply runs her heart out and is due her second career win. If she can beat the first choice today – I am not too sure but she will certainly be right there when the chips are down! NAVASHA must be included in the quartet. (Warren Lenferna 1-5-4)

5

Preview: QUINE has won three from four starts and is clearly very useful. She is well bred and looks to have a lot more to offer – she should relish the mile and could prove a very hard horse to beat here. TONYA is returning from a rest and a campaign in KZN (where she did well) she has a chance if not in too much need of this run. INANNA is way better than her lengths behind form reflects – she could race fresh and make a serious race of it. (Warren Lenferna 4-3-1)

6

Preview: NEW CALEDONIA has flourished since relocating to Cape Town and has won his last two rather impressively. It is hard to win three in a row but he clearly has ability and is confidently selected to reel off the hat trick. Light weights CHESTNUT WILD and THE GREAT ONE look set to fight out the minor money. (Warren Lenferna 2-11-10)

7

Preview: ON THAT NOTE is improving with racing and looks to have a bright winning chance today. There is however opposition in the race and the main danger is LIGHT CHASER whom is improving with racing and seems to enjoy the country course – she is drawn a bit wide. SILVER LAUREL is consistent and should win one of these days – include in the quartet. (Warren Lenferna 3-2-1)