Be prepared for a surprise
PUBLISHED: October 7, 2016
There have not been many winning favourites in the Matchem over the last 12 years…
Captain America is the class act in the Matchem Stakes at Durbanville on Sunday. He is the only Grade 1 winner in the field and he is hot favourite – as short as 14-10 with World Sports Betting.
But be prepared for a surprise. Corne Orffer’s mount has been off since April and this is a poor race for favourites. True, Act Of War 12 months ago and Capetown Noir in 2013 both won but they were exceptional animals who started odds-on and, those two apart, there hasn’t been a winning favourite in the Matchem since Play Catch 12 years ago.
No reservations from in-form Brett Crawford, though – “Both Captain America and Sail South have had a good preparation, they have been to Durbanville for a gallop and they have been working well.”
When you adjust the official ratings for the weights 5-1 shot Sail South comes out marginally the better but, significantly, their trainer doesn’t buy this at all. “Sail South’s 110 rating was gained on his last two wins in Durban and one of these was on the poly. He has yet to run off it and I’m not convinced whereas Captain America has proved his rating.”
All but two of the 11 runners are having their first races of the season and are therefore vulnerable and the vote, albeit a pretty tentative one, goes to 8-1 chance Heartland as the stable is on song and he was second 12 months ago. “He has only had one gallop but he will run a good race and (6-1) Baritone’s work has not been as good as Heartland’s,” says Justin Snaith whose third string Ultimate Dollar is as big as 11-1 despite having Andrew Fortune on his back.
It’s worth bearing in mind, though, that Baritone’s rider Greg Cheyne has been in blistering form since his return and he rode another treble here on Wednesday.
Rodney (backed from 8-1 to 6-1 yesterday morning) hasn’t a prayer on ratings – he comes out nearly seven lengths behind Captain America – but he has had a run and that can mean a huge amount. But the most appealing of all the bigger-priced horses is Blarney Bay at 12-1. This is his trip and the course is ideally-suited to his front-running style. Win or lose, one thing is certain – he will have put the fear of God into the opposition, and their connections, as he thunders towards the 200m marker three lengths clear.
Crawford may have yet to win the Matchem or the Diana but he has the favourite in the fillies race too. Alexis heads the market at 33-10 and, says her trainer, ”She is fit and well, and she loves to run fresh.”
Favourites have won five of the last seven but she might not head the market come race time if, as seems quite possible, the money comes for the impressive Stormsvlei Mile winner Captain’s Flame (4-1) who missed the Garden Province because she went down with a cough in Durban.
“We are not in this just to give her a run,” says Andre Nel making light of the filly’s lengthy absence. “Ours is the best horse in the race and I give her a big chance.”
It’s hard to go against that sort of confidence particularly as A Time To Dream, my original idea of the winner, is badly drawn. “She has done well and, even with draw, she will run a good race,” advises her trainer.
Finally Aldo Domeyer, who rides Captain’s Flame, is odds-on for the last. The Jockeys Chase has been extended to 400m in a bid to end his total domination of the event but this is the Frankel of jockey athletics and he looks a good thing.
Michael Clower
Jack still climbing
PUBLISHED: October 7, 2016
Kangaroo Jack is obviously a horse on the upgrade…
Kangaroo Jack was an unknown quantity going into the Gr2 POST Merchants at Greyville back in June. But he emerged circled in most form books after trouncing a strong line-up, that included Gr-1 winner Fly By Night (four-lengths back in second), despite being under sufferance at the weights. And he looks set to continue his upward curve in the Gr2 Joburg Spring Challenge over 1450m at the Turffontein inside track tomorrow.
The handicappers were somewhat impressed after the POST Merchants win and bumped him up six points to a 106 rating. But they more than doubled the hike (to 113) when Kangaroo Jack hacked up in the Gr3 Spring Spree Stakes on his seasonal debut last month.
Some pundits are questioning the hike as possibly a bit harsh but of more significance was the manner of the comeback victory. The Spring Spree was run over 1200m on the Turffontein inside track and after jumping alertly from a middle draw, Kangaroo Jack travelled smoothly throughout before producing the same telling turn of foot that impressed us all at Greyville. Kangaroo Jack is obviously a horse on the upgrade, has produced his best runs to date on tight tracks and can continue his climb up the ratings at Turffontein tomorrow.
The opposition includes July-winner The Conglomerate, Daily News-winner Rabada and Gold Cup-winner Enaad. But like Kangaroo Jack’s stable companion, Champagne Haze, these top class performers are all being prepared for upcoming feature races over further ground. Whereas Kangaroo Jack’s plans hinge squarely on this performance.
Trainer Gary Alexander confirmed this earlier in the week speaking to TABnews: “We’ll decide where to go [with Kangaroo Jack] after the Spring Challenge. If Andrew Fortune hops off and says he’ll get a mile (1600m), we might target the HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes next year. If he says no, we’ll restrict him to sprints, like the Computaform Sprint (April).” Without any immediate targets in mind, Kangaroo Jack looks aimed at tomorrow’s race and well worth chancing as a banker in the carryover Pick 6 (estimated R3million pool).
The weights suggest that it will be difficult to stop Lazer Star from repeating in the Fillies and Mares Spring Challenge but there was a lot to like about Intergalactic’s last win and it could pay to follow the Sean Tarry-trained four-year-old.
Intergalactic was gutsy in fending off She’s A Dragon and Lazer Star over the same track and trip last time out. Tomorrow’s race conditions firmly favour Lazer Star but there could be more to come from Intergalactic who has shown ability in the past, most notably in finishing just 1,5 lengths behind Inara in the Gr 1 Garden Province Stakes at Greyville on July Day.
Like Lazer Star, Intergalactic has a strong record at the Turffontein inside track and these two could suffice in smaller Pick 6 perms.
Brendan Pather
Marcus booked for St Tropez
PUBLISHED: October 5, 2016
St Tropez and The Conglomerate contest the Joburg Spring Challenge (Grade 2) at Turffontein on Saturday…
St Tropez is expected to do better than his hot-shot stablemate The Conglomerate in this Saturday’s R400,000 Joburg Spring Challenge (Grade 2) at Turffontein.
The race, on the Inside track, is run at weight-for-age plus penalties for Grade 1 and 2 wins.
Alson Ndzilana, assistant trainer to Joey Ramsden, believes The Conglomerate will need a sharpener in his first run since scoring his historic win from the widest draw in the Vodacom Durban July.
Ndzilana says: “The 1450m of the Spring Challenge is sharp for him but this is a prep run – he’s going for the Emperors Palace Charity Mile early next month and his main aim is the SANSUI Summer Cup at the end of November.”
The Conglomerate has also not drawn well over a course and distance where many regard a low-number draw as essential. “I am concerned about the draw, but we’ll drop him out and I’m hoping to see him run on strongly at the end,” said the assistant trainer. “He should run a pretty good race.”
Donovan Dillon will be in the saddle instead of jockey Piere Strydom, who rode The Conglomerate in Durban July and who does not have a mount in the feature.
“Joey only likes using Piere when we’re expecting to do well,” explained Ndzilana.
Anton Marcus, who is in tip-top form since a three-week hiatus with five wins and six places from as many mounts in the last week, is the jockey booked for St Tropez.
The five-year-old Silvano gelding ran a fair race over this course and distance last month, when fourth behind Bulleting Home in a Pinnacle Stakes. He will sport blinkers for the first time “to sharpen him up a little bit because 1450m is not his trip”.
Added Ndzilana: “He’s also in Johannesburg to run in the Charity Mile and the Summer Cup and his prep is going nicely. He has a good draw on Saturday. I’m hoping for luck in running.”
Goodhope Racing’s third runner is Tabreek in a 1450m MR 80 Handicap. Take the hint – Strydom is riding him!
He won well over 1600m on the Inside track last time out and Ndzilana is hoping an eight-point hike in his merit rating will not impact too much on his future.
He also drew wide but with only nine runners in the field that should not be too much of an issue.
“He’ll run a very nice race,” said Ndzilana.
TABnews
Jack ready for Spring Challenge
PUBLISHED: October 5, 2016
“Kangaroo Jack has prepped very nicely for this and his work has been good.”
Kangaroo Jack is the highest-rated runner in the R400,000 Joburg Spring Challenge (Grade 2) over 1450m on the Turffontein Inside this Saturday and trainer Gary Alexander is “expecting a nice run from him”.
The final field for the race, to be run at weight-for-age plus penalties for Grade 1 and Grade 2 wins, will only be announced today, but Alexander-trained four-year-olds Kangaroo Jack and Champagne Haze are both certain to make the cut.
Kangaroo Jack, a Grade 2 winner last season, is well drawn at No 6, but received a punitive hike in the merit ratings after winning the Grade 3 Spring Spree Stakes over 1200m in his seasonal debut. Now rated 113, the handicappers reckon he is 0.50 lengths better than seven-year-old Night Trip and three lengths superior to the next highest-rated runner New Predator.
Johan Janse van Vuuren’s charge New Predator, who is also a Grade 2 winner, is probably underrated at 107, but drew at No 23 of the 26 entries in a race where many experts believe a good draw is crucial, while Night Trip fared only one better.
Alexander said: “Kangaroo Jack has prepped very nicely for this and his work has been good.”
Last year’s CTS Emperors Palace Ready To Run Cup winner Champagne Haze, who will be making his return from his winter break and being gelded, is another top sort. He drew at No 2 and will probably be ridden by Lyle Hewitson.
“We are preparing him for the Emperors Palace Charity Mile so he will be in need of the run,” said the Turffontein-based trainer. “He’s a good horse, a nice type, and is doing well in his home work. I’ll be over the moon if he runs into the places.”
Kangaroo Jack is unlikely to join Champagne Haze in the lineup for the Charity Mile at Turffontein on Saturday 5 November because of his high merit rating.
“We’ll decide where to go after the Spring Challenge,” said Alexander. “If Andrew Fortune hops off and says he’ll get a mile (1600m), we might target the HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes next year. If he says no, we’ll restrict him to sprints, like the Computaform Sprint.”
Alexander also has a chance in the R400,000 Joburg Spring F&M Challenge (Grade 2) over 1450m. He will saddle six-year-old mare Crown Of Roses, a late entry who also pulled No 2 draw. Alexander has booked Craig Zackey for the ride.
“She was due to run in the WSB Heritage 1200 Fillies and Mares at the Vaal last weekend but was given a huge weight of 67kg,” said Alexander. “With a lighter weight, that would have been the right race for her. She’s very consistent in this class and from a nice draw, must have a place shout in what looks likely to be a top field.”
TABnews
Follow without blinkers
PUBLISHED: October 5, 2016
Andrew Fortune is riding out of his skin…
Follow Fortune – but not blindly. That’s the advice for Durbanville today when the 2008/09 champion rides in six of the eight races.
Andrew Fortune may be only seven months short of his 50th birthday but he is riding out of his skin at the moment and he started the week 20 winners clear of his nearest pursuers, Richard Fourie and Anthony Delpech.
Four of his six mounts are favourites and he kicks off with Count Henry who gave away an almost impossible amount of ground at the off on debut here last month but showed immense promise by running on to take third of 13 in the manner of a certain future winner.
But don’t be tempted by too short a price – he opened at 17-10 with World Sports Betting on Monday and was a fraction tighter yesterday – because there are others in the race with superior form, notably Zeb, Oh Behave and Pillar Of Hercules despite the latter’s disappointing second run when he started second favourite. “The only excuse we can offer is that the ground was very wet that day,” says Joey Ramsden’s assistant Ricardo Sobotker. “But he is working well.”
King Of The Rally in race three looks the weakest of the sextet and here 18-10 shot Icon King should make the most of stepping up to a mile with 11-10 favourite Gold Standard the obvious danger.
Craven 40 minutes later is the Fortune banker even though his 7-20 price is prohibitive. The money poured on him when he beat all except stable companion The Great One on debut last month. “The owner (Y.H. Yue) wanted Andrew that day too but he wasn’t available,” recalls Brett Crawford whose three-year-old maiden strength-in-depth is formidable, “and Craven is in good form.”
Carbon Offset won his maiden with Fortune in the irons here three weeks ago and the colt heads the market at 2-1 in the Itsarush.co.za Handicap over the same mile. But this is first time out of the maidens and, although he was not given a hard race to win, he didn’t exactly have a ton in hand and there is no real reason to think that the handicappers have underestimated him with a rating of 81. If you still want to back him, don’t go overboard.
The form book says that Ntombe could struggle to reverse the placings with Colour Magic and My Emblem in race seven but the Manna Fortune magic may be enough, particularly as Geoff Woodruff’s daughter Lucy has the Cape Town string in good form and 7-1 looks appealing.
Amazingly has everything going for her in the last except a dreadful draw. The question is whether the 28-10 favourite will be quick enough to overcome it. “I think so, yes,” answers Adam Marcus. “She has a lot of natural speed and she should enjoy Durbanville where Andrew is particularly good.”
A further plus is that Fortune rang for the ride. He has nothing in the first where Crawford’s 5-2 chance Scriptwriter may beat fellow once-raced Moon Bird who was favourite at 15-10 yesterday. Both were slowly away here last month.
Michael Clower