Our Destiny, 100-1 when chasing home Silver Mountain in the Fillies Guineas, may well start favourite for the conditions plate at Kenilworth today. She opened at 15-10 with World Sports Betting on Monday and, while she has since eased to 22-10, she still makes a lot of appeal.

She has a kilo to find with Alexis on adjusted ratings but Glen Kotzen is bullish about her. “She has done fantastic and got so much stronger since the Guineas,” he says. “She runs here and then the Klawervlei Majorca (Jan 23). There are really no other races for her because of her high merit rating.”

Kotzen also runs last season’s Fillies Guineas third Double Whammy but the 4-1 shot chipped a fetlock in her next race. “She needed her last two runs and I may just decide to put a pair of blinkers on,” says the Woodhill boss.

Alexis (John Lewis)

Alexis met with interference in a hot race last time and so is better than the form figures would suggest. She has been nibbled at (from 3-1 to 28-10 with WSB and from 7-2 to 5-2 with Betting World) and seems a bigger danger than Eventual Angel who looks too short at 15-4 considering how much she has to find on the ratings.

Justin Snaith and Bernard Fayd’Herbe should warm up for Saturday by taking the last with Nima but the first two races are tricky. Punters should note that the three unraced horses in the first are all considered useful.

Ferrero Rocha is an Australian bred and Candice Robinson says: “She may need it experience-wise and she will also want more ground but she is quite a nice filly.”

Andre Nel, looking for an excuse to celebrate his 37^th birthday a day early, introduces Liberal Sally and says: “She is not a star but it doesn’t look a strong race so she might have a chance.”

The Trippi filly Trippvilia represents Hassen Adams and Darryl Hodgson who says: “She is nice and she will run very well if she is not hindered by greenness.”

Ferrero Rocha and Liberal Sally opened joint favourites at 7-2 with WSB on Monday but the money has come for the Nel filly who was only 22-10 yesterday afternoon and was backed from 5-1 to 2-1 with BW. Brett Crawford’s New Found Glory (whose first run was far better than the bare result would suggest) is a 9-2 chance but Trippvilia was friendless and drifted out from 10-1 to 25-1.

Flying Ryan, who opened 4-1 joint favourite for the All To Come Maiden (race two), has met with an injury and has been scratched. The money has come in a big way for the original 10-1 tip This Is Sparta who is now as short as 9-2. He has similar credentials to New Found Glory and Crawford says: “He ran a good race first time, coming from quite a long way back, and he has shown good improvement at home since then.”

He is still the selection but the value has gone. Bora Bora is also worth considering.  Fayd’Herbe’s mount could be slightly better than his last run would indicate – he didn’t stride out freely – and he now wears blinkers.

By Michael Clower

Picture: Alexis (John Lewis)

The Gr 1 Maine Chance Paddock Stakes has a chance of going back to KZN for the third time in the last four years as the Duncan Howells-trained Same Jurisdiction is deservedly the highest merit rated horse in the race, but a question mark is posed by the combination of the draw of 16 and the distance of 1800m.

Howells duly regards that factor as the only concern and said, “As far as her preparation is concerned, it couldn’t have gone any better.”

The brilliant Mambo In Seattle filly was dropped out from a wide draw in the Gr 1 Jonsson Workwear Garden Province Stakes over 1600m, despite it being a field of 15 on a tight course, and her exceptional turn of foot then won her the race. Of further interest was that she was possibly the only horse who won going down the inside that day. She will almost certainly be dropped out again over this longer trip. She was caught late in the Gr 1 SA Fillies Classic over this distance at Turffontein last season, despite jumping from a plum draw of two, which suggests the mile is likely her best trip.

However, looking at that SA Fillies Classic performance there are three factors which give reason to believe she will stay the trip on Saturday, despite the wide draw. Firstly, she is a year older and therefore stronger, secondly Turffontein is a tougher course than Kenilworth due to the hill they have to come up around the turn, and thirdly Turffontein is at high altitude which makes it an even tougher test.

The Dennis Drier-trained Beach Beauty won the Paddock Stakes in both 2013 and 2014 and Same Jurisdiction will be hoping to wrest the trophy back for KZN from one of her likely chief market rivals on Saturday, the Mike Bass-trained Trippi filly Inara, who won the race as a three-year-old last year.

By David Thiselton

The Gr 1 L’Ormarin’s Queen’s Plate had a farcical pace last year and it is difficult to predict how quicker it will be in the 155^th renewal of the prestigious weight for age mile event at Kenilworth on Saturday.

The key horses to the pace could well be Heartland and Noah From Goa.
Heartland is firstly from the same stable as the two likely favourites Futura and Legislate.  Secondly he is owned by Jack Mitchell and his daughter Nancy, who are part-owners of both Futura and Legislate. Thirdly, his likely best chance of winning the race is to take it by the scruff of the neck, as he is 6,5kg under sufferance with the best rated horse Legal Eagle and 6kg and 5kg out with Futura and Legislate respectively. Next, he showed when winning the Listed Jet Master Stakes over this course and distance and when finishing runner up in the Gr 3 Kuda Matchem Stakes over 1400m that he likes to run from a handy position and there is no reason on that evidence that he can’t lead as he doesn’t appear to be a headstrong type.

Lastly, and possibly the biggest factor of all, is that his draw of seven coupled with Futura and Legislate’s draws inside of him of two and six respectively, gives him the ideal chance to go like a hare out of the gates, allowing his two more fancied stablemates to slot in behind him. However, this is where the prediction of how fast they will go becomes tricky.

Presuming Heartland does take the lead and Futura and Legislate manage to secure the box seats behind him, slowing it up will then play right into the latter pair’s hands as they both possess exceptional acceleration. Futura’s turn of foot was the decisive factor in last year’s Queen’s Plate off a slow pace and Legislate’s turn of foot was the decisive factor in the Gr 1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge last year over 1600m at Greyville where he himself set a slow pace.

That is not to say the brilliant pair would not be suited to a fast pace, as they both stay further than the mile.

However, the horse most likely horse to ensure a quicker pace could be the Mike de Kock-trained Noah From Goa, who will be attempting to become only the second three-year-old since Yataghan in 1973 to win the Queen’s Plate, Gimmethegreenlight in 2012 having been the last one to do it. Noah From Goa, who is unbeaten in four career starts on turf, over raced a bit back in October in a MR 74 Handicap over 1450m as Anthony Delpech hit the front early and waited for a horse to come around him, which duly happened. He still won by 6,25 lengths. He had to be reined back again before the turn in his next start in a MR 94 Handicap for three-year-olds over 1450m and once again his fine turn of foot and resolute finish carried him to a comfortable victory of 2,25 lengths over a useful field.

He then had a nice inside draw in the Investec Dingaans and was one again a little bit keen early, but fortunately New Approach took the lead allowing him to sit in the box seat. Noah From Goa one again displayed that fine turn of foot and resolute finish and proved he had the important factor of courage in his armoury too as he emerged victorious after ding-dong struggle down the straight with New Approach. He had a nice draw in the Gr 1 Grand Parade Cape Guineas over the Queen’s Plate course and distance and Delpech read the race superbly as he bounced him out and made a beeline for the first turn where the two obvious pacemakers in the race, Hard Day’s Night and Budapest, slotted in front of him, putting him in the box seat behind a good pace. Despite going around the turn on the wrong foot, he once again displayed his turn of foot and resolve.

However, considering the way all of these wins have panned out, Delpech faces a bit of a dilemma. From a draw of nine aboard a horse with good gatespeed and early pace, he looks to have little option but to go out hard all the way to the turn.

Last year’s pacemaker Ashton Park led more by accident than design as he is a horse who prefers coming from off the pace. However, as a horse who has always seemed more suited to 1400m and consequently tends to pull over 1600m, his draw of 14 could make him a possible leader if they go slowly from the off. However, this is unlikely considering Heartland would probably want to get on with and Noah From Goa will have to get around him. So Noah From Goa looks likely to be leading at the turn and from there, on previous evidence, the likely best option would be to allow him to stride out in front. Whether he settles in front remains to be seen and of course the wind strength and direction on the day is another factor in the equation as nobody would want to lead into the teeth of a South Easter. Unfortunately, Windguru does predict a fresh to strong South Easterly breeze of between 21 and 26 knots and this might be enough to play havoc with the pace of the race.

The Joey Ramsden pair Act Of War and King Of Pain are two others who could influence the pace. Ramsden was understandably furious after the Gr 2 Lanzerac Alta Mater Green Point Stakes when Act Of War’s hold up and run on plan was scuppered by the second and third horses in the running allowing the eventual winner Captain America a lead of a few lengths despite going at a crawl. Even Act Of War’s exceptional turn of foot was not enough to make up the deficit under those circumstances. It is unlikely there will be a repeat of such riding in a race of the Queen’s Plate’s prestige. However, the yard are unlikely to want to risk Act Of War parking at the back again, despite a wide draw of 14. That said, Act Of War is a completely different horse to Ramsden’s 2013 Queen’s Plate winner Variety Club in that he does not possess a ton of gatespeed or early pace. Nevertheless, Anton Marcus will likely waste no time in going to the front if they go slowly from the off.

King Of Pain’s best career result was when Bernard Fayd’Herbe correctly predicted a slow pace in the 2014 Gr 1 Gold Challenge and took him to the front from where he was too good to be caught by the best milers in the land, which included the like of Beach Beauty, Yorker and Capetown Noir. He showed signs of a return to form when running on strongly for fourth in the Gr 2 Khaya Stables Diadem Stakes over 1200m last time out. The race would have sharpened him up and, with that Gold Challenge victory in mind, Vodacom Durban July-winning jockey Stuart Randolph will likely seize any opportunity to go to the front if it is slow early as he has an ideal draw of five to do so.

Captain America is a big horse who likes to use his big stride, so is usually handy. He proved he can settle in the lead in the Green Point, so is another possible pacemaker from a wide draw of ten.

By David Thiselton
Picture: Heartland (Liesl King)

In race one, a Maiden Plate over 1400m, Profit Ratio caught the eye making late progress over 1200m in his second start and is drawn towards the right side. Cherokee Grey has some nice formlines and is a full-brother to a Gr 2 winner over this trip, Chekilli, although one concern is the breathing noises he has made twice in three starts. De Lujo is a big, long-striding sort and despite this being his 20^th run the course and distance and draw give him an ideal chance to get a place at a likely attractive price. Runalong was gaining late over 1200m in his second start and looks to have scope for further improvement but does have quite a tough draw. Kanonkop has been caught late in two career starts to date over 1400m and 1600m respectively, but the concern is that he has made breathing noises both times and is now drawn on the wrong side according to trends. Wine Country made a fair debut over 1000m and should improve over this trip especially as this will be Piere Strydom’s comeback ride from a long suspension. The two first-timers that make some appeal are Druid’s Temple, who is by Oracy out of a useful four-time winning 99 merit-rated Jet Master sprinter, but the number one draw makes it tough, and Encountered, who is by Count Dubois and is half-brother to a four-time winner who reached a merit rating of 99.

In race two, a Maiden for fillies and mares over 1400m, Tricia Dupont, a long-striding sort, used her good pace to overcome a tough draw over this course and distance last time and was staying on well late when squeezed out, so she could make amends here from a good draw. Cosmo Russe has caught the eye over shorter and should relish the step up in trip so should go close from a favourable draw. Spring Dance is talented and found betting support on debut when having no luck and then beat Cosmo Russe over 1200m, so it depends on whether she can overcome her tough draw as she should stay the trip on pedigree. Tracy’s Legacy by More Than ready out of a Redoute’s Choice mare has plenty of natural speed and now tries 1400m so is an interesting runner from a good draw. Khetiwe is drawn on the right side and will appreciate the step down in trip after failing over 1600m having shown good pace on debut over this trip.

In race three, a Maiden Plate over 1000m, Watabout has a tough draw but faces an uninspiring field and could use his touch of class to overcome it. Minnesota is drawn well and has good pace so should be thereabouts. Rock On has been knocking on the door and is drawn on the right side over his ideal trip. Gimmeabreak is talented but he clearly has a problem jumping anything but slowly which in two starts to date has given him too much to do and he has also given the impression he would prefer further. Sister Mary has shown signs of ability over this trip and this is the first time she has blinkers on in a turf race.

In race four, a MR 72 Handicap over 1000m, Manx Park is an enigmatic sort but if having another going day could follow up on his win last time out because due to the apprentice weighing out 1,5kg overweight in that race he is effectively only one point higher in the merit ratings. Clean Cut has a fair chance if starting better than last time as he is having his third run after a rest over an ideal trip and has a fair draw. Daspoort has an attractive merit rating and his pace should be effective from an ideal draw and the jockey being carded to weigh in 0,5kg overweight shouldn’t be a significant factor. Gun Fighter should go close from an ideal draw over an ideal trip having made late headway when going close over this trip last time out, but he is only 0,5kg better off for a 1,9 length beating by Manx Park. The improved Atso Cool won his maiden well over this trip and the form has worked out well so he has a chance from an ideal draw despite quite a tough merit rating of 79.

The fifth is a Progress Plate over 1200m for fillies and mares and Silver Class is second best in at the weights, albeit by only 0,5kg and has been a bit unlucky lately over this sort of trip, which she has proven very talented over, so she could get it right here from a favourable draw. Swift Sarah’s last run can be ignored as she broke through the stalls and she could be better than her merit rating suggests so could have a shout here. Negroamara is best in at the weights and has class so can’t be disvcounted over a trip short of her optimum.

In the sixth, a MR 80 Handicap over 1200m, High Game has dropped to an attractive merit and should use his pace and ability to stay further effectively over this trip.  Tabreek is interesting stepped down in trip off a lowered merit rating from a favourable draw as he has tended to over race over further.  However, the entire field has a chance in this race so all should be included in the Jackpot and Pick 6 if possible.

In the seventh, a MR 72 Handicap over 1600m, Trees Of Green is suited to this trip and the form of his last close second has been franked in no uncertain terms, so he will be hard to beat from a reasonable draw.  Hawaiian Sun is drawn well over what looks to be an ideal trip and he could be well handicapped on the form of his last run over this distance. Steelwing could earn over an ideal trip off a competitive merit rating. Reef Of Fortune has talent but has a tough draw. Mutakayyef, Analyse This, Regal Force, Lundy’s Star and Mann’s Inn have to be considered too for minor places.

In the eighth, a MR 72 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1600m, the progressive Khonza will be hard to beat as she put in a fine effort over this trip last time out from a tough draw at Turffontein and the form has been franked in no uncertain terms and she is now well drawn. Escudo has a chance having had to be eased late in that same race and finishing just a short-head behind Khonza, but there is now a reversal in draw fortunes. Miracle Rising is talented and bounced back last time when stepped up to 1700m so has a chance here. Miss Tweedy could earn as she was only about five lengths behind Khonza last time when caught too far back from a wide draw and she is now 2,5kg better off and has a favourable draw. Star Of Love won a good race last Thursday over 1600m at Turffontein off a 69 merit rating and has a chance if not given to much of a raise in the merit ratings, although the draw makes it tough.

David Thiselton

Greg Cheyne hopes to have an operation on the multiple fractures in his right foot tomorrow. Previously it was too swollen for the surgeon to operate.

Cheyne (pictured) suffered the injuries when the subsequently scratched hot favourite Mount Keith was in the pens for the two-year-old race at Kenilworth on December 27.

He said yesterday: “When the horse became fractious my foot got trapped between the stirrup iron, the starting stalls and the horse. When he became more unruly the pressure was such that my foot was basically crushed. There are seven fractures and two displacements.”

Donavan Mansour has been out of action since Boxing Day when he was injured riding Geoff Woodruff’s  Sansui Summer Cup winner and J & B Met candidate Master Sabina in trackwork at Milnerton.

He said: “I was waiting for the tractor to come past but, when it did, Master Sabina went from being totally relaxed to stressed and I half fell off. When I was trying to stay on, and get my leg back over the saddle, I tore my groin and lower abdominal muscles quite badly.

“The doctor said that, judging from the x-rays, I would be out for three months but I am trying everything to speed that up including jet therapy and an oxygen chamber. I don’t want to miss out on the Triple Crown in Jo’burg. If I can get back in time, I can ride Brazuca in the Gauteng Guineas (Feb 27).”

By Michael Clower