Paterfamilias looks the obvious answer to the Premier Trophy at Kenilworth tomorrow but favourites have a poor record in this race and Dennis Drier is expecting Durban July second Punta Arenas to prove a major threat.

There was over four lengths between them over a furlong less in the Green Point three weeks ago but that was Punta Arenas’s first run for 16 weeks. “He will improve the three or four lengths that he needs so it could be interesting,” remarked Dennis Drier who is bidding for his third Premier in four years.

Aldo Domeyer rode Paterfamilias last time and now Grant van Niekerk takes the ride. “Grant is stable jockey and he wanted to ride the horse,” Candice Robinson explained. “Paterfamilias is well and in good form.”

The favourite has won this race only once in the last ten years and four times finished nowhere so don’t be surprised if there is an upset. Royal Dreamer and last year’s second Helderberg Blue look the most likely contenders.

Sublime Lady may beat the older horses in a wide-open Victress Stakes although stable companion Come Fly With Me makes a lot of appeal. However she has never raced as far as this before and Mrs Robinson has reservations. “I could be wrong but I’m not sure about Come Fly With Me staying the 1 800m,” she said.

Sean Cormack has won the last two runnings and has a big chance on Gathering Flame. “She needed her first run, she is doing well and she will run a nice race,” said Drier.

The first hurdle that punters have to overcome is the Western Cape Bookmakers Association Maiden Juvenile, the opening two-year-old race of the Cape season.

Most of the eight runners are cheaply bought and R400 000 purchase Var Ahead (a daughter of SA Fillies Nursery winner and Allan Robertson second Waywest Goddess) cost more than the rest put together. Several rival trainers said they had heard that the colt is fast.

But how fast? “I don’t know,” answered Justin Snaith. “He is a tank of a horse but I don’t rev up my two-year-olds anymore.”

The twinkle in Vaughan Marshall’s eye suggested he is keen on taking him on with R25 000 buy Desert Dreamer – “She is tiny but she is quick and she has beaten everything I’ve worked her with.”

Glen Kotzen, in double form on Wednesday, runs the Zimbabwe-bred Mount Keith who is also small. He said: “The horse has a big action but it might be a bit short for him. He will be doing his best work at the end.”

Paul Reeves has similar reservations about R25 000 buy Miss Stake, saying: “I don’t know that she is an 800m horse. She would be better over 1 000m.”

Elevated cost R100 000 and is by SA Derby winner Elusive Fort out of a sprinter.  “He is more of a classy sport than a speedy sort,” said Riaan van Reenen.

Rebel Force cost only R15 000 despite being out of a half-sister to a Breeders’ Cup juvenile winner. “He has come to hand quickly but he is not a speedy horse,” cautioned Mike Stewart.

Carl Burger said he couldn’t split Los Ninos (R70 000) and On The Right Path (R30 000) and added: “They are nice horses and I expect them both to go well.”

So it would appear to be a question of whether Marshall’s little filly can topple the Snaith powerhouse. Maybe she can.

By Michael Clower

Picture (Liesl King): Paterfamilias

Greyville’s eight race meeting tonight, with the last two being on the turf, and Scottsville’s meeting of eight races down the straight on Sunday are not easy to assess overall and dividends could be healthy for those who do their homework.

In the first at Greyille tonight, a Maiden over 1400m, The Lonsdale will relish the step down in trip and the likely faster pace. He was a bit strong behind the leaders over 1600m last time, and had the jockey swinging on the bridle, and then found little extra late. Anton Marcus is now up. King’s Landing has some fair form over this trip on turf and should be running on strongly at the finish. He is well drawn and Brandon Lerena is in form. Lecure D has some fair form from1200-1600m but his trainer only rates him an each/way chance.

In the second, a Maiden for fillies and mares over 1400m,  Durban Blues could be too strong despite returning from a five month layoff as she has run close to some of the best of her age and this should be a suitable trip, although a concern is the well below par recent form of her yard. Dark Rose has been knocking on the door for a long time and finished strongly in her first try at this trip last time so she should make a bold bid. Agustina showed some zip over 1000m last time but on pedigree should enjoy this trip. Diamond Prop should have come on from his last start and had some fair form last season. Durban Beach and Majestic Pots both look to have scope for improvement.

The third, a fillies and mares MR 70 handicap over 1400m, is a minefield. French Lass won well on her Greyville poly debut when quickening nicely and although she would prefer the latter trip she can’t be ignored here despite a five point merit rating raise. La Gitano looks to have strengthened and improved since  being given a three month layoff so could make a bold bid having been accorded a lenient merit rating for her easy maiden win over 1200m last month. Floral Secret has run two fair races subsequent to beating La Gitano by four lengths over this course and distance in her Maiden win in August. Bella Miesque is small and game and being by Miesque’s Approval loves the poly, so she could follow up on her course and distance maiden win from a good draw off a reasonable merit rating. Nyangan has some fair Cape Town form over this trip and should earn.

In the fourth race, a Maiden over 2000m, Toreador gelding Osuna has not been an easy ride over shorter but on racing style and pedigree, with the dam having won over 2400m, he looks likely to relish the step up in trip. Saarikh went close over course and distance last time and should be right there again. Apple Jack will relish the step up in trip on pedigree and is drawn in pole with Marcus up. Dark Avenger stayed on gamely from the front over 1800m last time and has gone close over this trip before too.  Nutcracker by Ideal World ran a fair race on turf over 1400m last time out and is another who will relish this trip.

Princess Varunya (Nkosi Hlophe)

The fifth is a MR66 Handicap over 2000m and Kitty’s Destiny will appreciate the step up in trip and has always struck as a sort with plenty of scope for improvement.

Just Like Magic looks to be a useful sort who will enjoy the trip and with a 4kg claimer up could handle a merit rating of 82. Aficionado looks to be an out and out stayer and from a good draw with Delpech up is sure to be contesting the finish. Selvan’s Jet stayed on well from the front last time out to beat Just Like Magic over 1800m and he has an ideal draw of three but if apprentice claims are included he is now 3,5kg worse off with Just Like Magic for a 0,5 length beating. Discourse is down to an attractive merit rating and could be dangerous over a suitable course and distance.

The sixth is a MR 73 Handicap over 1600m. Team Guys has always been a talked about horse and confirmed his liking for this course and distance last time when winning his maiden easily, so a merit rating of 78 looks manageable for this progressive sort. Ferdinand The Bull had some decent Cape Town form and the merit ratings are often suppressed there due to the overall higher class of horse, so he could improve over this more suitable trip having stayed on well over 1400m on his KZN debut. Texican has a nice turn of foot and a resolute finish and is interesting with first time blinkers on although making a respiratory noise last time is a concern.

The first turf race is a MR 75 handicap for fillies and mares over 2000m and Princess Vurunya looks a good middle distance sort in the making and she can make it a hattrick from pole position despite a five point merit rated raise. Leopard Lily is off a competitive merit rating and is drawn well in two over a suitable course and distance and can do well if ridden more conservatively than last time. Lemon Tea has Anton Marcus up and represents a yard who excel when they go over more ground. Archetype could feature if reproducing her best Johannesburg form. Divine Wind, Duchess Kate and Sword Storm are all distance suited and should all be staying on strongly. The yard are expecting an improved run from Classe Mondiale.

Barbosa (Nkosi Hlophe)

The second turf race is a Maiden over 2000m and the improving Modernista looks hard to beat from a fair draw over a suitable trip. Maybe has been staying on over a mile and could be a threat from a good draw. Lizzie’s Chapel is a half-sister to a horse who has won over 1900m so she should enjoy this trip and has some fair form over shorter.

The two highlights of the eight Scottsville Sprints are the fifth and the seventh, a Pinnacle Stakes race over 1000m and a Novice Plate over 1200m. Barbosa looks the meeting banker in the former event, being a horse who has come into his own, drawn on the right side and best in at the weights. In the Novice Plate Isingamoya looked to be a horse who could go places after her impressive maiden win second time out over this course and distance and she could follow up.

By David Thiselton

Silver Mountain has been raised 3kg for her five-length win in last Saturday’s World Sports Betting Cape Fillies Guineas putting her on a new merit rating of 111.

She will receive 2.5kg when she takes on the colts and geldings in the Grand Parade Cape Guineas in nine days’ time and , in theory at any rate, she has two and a half lengths in hand of the highest-rated of them, Premiers Champion winner Rabada.

Candice Robinson said yesterday: “She took her race well and, although two weeks running is a big ask, at this stage she is a runner on Saturday week.”

The handicappers upped second-placed Our Destiny a whopping 10kg to 100 after using Taffety Tart (third on 99) as the line horse. Anglet (fourth) went up 3.5kg to 98 and Bela-Bela (fifth) the same amount to 97.

Anglet is to have a break and Paddy Kruyer explained: “She raced with odd front shoes after being reshod at the start and she jarred her joints.”

Athletes often train at altitude to give them an edge when they return to near sea level and Joey Ramsden is doing the same with last month’s Amtote Merchants winner Brutal Force.

He said: “The horse will stay in Jo’burg until a week or so before the Betting World Cape Flying Championship (Jan 30). Derek Brugman is keen on this as he thinks the altitude might help the horse.”

By Michael Clower

Picture: Silver Mountain (Kenilworth Racing)

The Paul Lafferty-trained Unbelievable Chad returned to Summerveld no worse for wear after taking hold of the bit at Turffontein before the Investec Dingaans on November 28 and bolting to the start. He was duly scratched much to the disappointment of his KZN fans.

He always travels well and Lafferty said, “When you have a Ferrari you look after it and this horse is a Ferrari. So we checked him thoroughly, including his mouth and there was no damage to his teeth. But we have cut back two of his molars to try and prevent him from grabbing the bit like that again.”

Lafferty will take the Toreador colt to the racecourse for a gallop on a raceday as another preventative measure.

He will then likely run him in a Novice Plate with the aim of preparing him for the Champions Season.

Unbelievable Chad is named after and part-owned by the by Olympic swimming gold medallist Chad le Clos.

Chad’s father Bert, who coined the term “Unn-Believable”, was a former bookmaker, so knows the racing game well, and both he and Chad took the mishap well after travelling up to Johannesburg to watch. They proved their sportsmanship too by making a point of congratulating the connections of the winner, the Mike de Kock-trained and Wilgerbosdrift Stud-bred Tiger Ridge gelding Noah From Goa.

By David Thiselton

Last year’s J&B Met runner up Gold Onyx “will need the run badly” in Saturday’s Gr 2 Premier Trophy over 1800m at Kenilworth warned national champion trainer Sean Tarry.

Tarry said the eight-year-old Black Minnaloushe gelding’s last gallop had “unfortunately” revealed he had needed it significantly and he consequently adjudged he would still be some way below his peak for Saturday’s race.

Gold Onyx is known for his devastating turn of foot but short run-in and is drawn three on Saturday in the race which was used as his Cape Summer Of Champions Season pipe opener last year. He finished a 2,5 length sixth from a wide draw of eight back but had a November run in Durban under his belt back then, whereas Saturday’s run will be his seasonal reappearance.

He went on last year to finish an unlucky third in the Gr 1 L’Ormarin’s Queen’s Plate followed by a second in the Met so there is plenty of life in him yet, despite it now being six seasons since his only Gr 1 win in the Premier’s Champion Stakes over 1600m at Greyville as a two-year-old.

His resurgence last year was thought to have had a bit to do with his association with a jockey who brought the best out of him, Grant Behr, but one of the Tarry yard’s chief stable jockeys, S’Manga Khumalo, will be back aboard on Saturday.

By David Thiselton

Picture: Gold Onyx (Nkosi Hlophe)