Line Break speed will be significant
PUBLISHED: November 13, 2015
Tevez is going for his third Cape Merchants win in a row…
Tevez attempts to win the Cape Merchants for the third year in a row at Kenilworth tomorrow and no-one knows how to land this hotly competitive handicap better than the Mike Bass stable which has won seven of the last 17 runnings.
Aldo Domeyer’s mount has followed the script that worked so well last year and the year before, reappearing in the October pinnacle – he was third in 2013, fourth last year and sixth this time – and then going straight into the Merchants. No second run after a rest problems with this horse. Also he has only gone up three points in the ratings since last season’s win.
“Tevez has come on (since the Pinnacle),” confirms Candice Robinson. “But at the weights I think Line Break could be the pick of our three. He ran well in that Pinnacle and he is a bit better off with Exelero.”
Bass, whose third runner is the Fairview scorer Tomba La Bomba, has long held Line Break in high regard and the yard now thinks he could be a sprinter even though he is by Dynasty. In what is a wide open race he is the one that makes most appeal. He has a light weight and a cracking good, even if still under-rated, jockey while his low draw is a plus. The sprint course is evening out but the latest penetrometer analysis shows that the ground is still fractionally faster on the inside to the middle.
No Merchants winner has carried more than 60kg in 15 years which stacks the odds against Same Jurisdiction, 5-1 favourite in the TAB sheet forecast. “This is a bit short for her but the concern is the amount of weight,” says Duncan Howells. “She could run into the money.”
Exelero looks much more likely to start favourite but that is not exactly a plus – every one since 2001 has been beaten. However MJ Byleveld’s mount has bounced back to his best and, although raised 3kg for his Pinnacle win, he is still weighted to beat those that finished behind him. He is also the best age – five-year-olds have won six of the last 14.
“That was the maximum they could have put him up. Had it been an ordinary race he would have gone up more,” says Vaughan Marshall. “I think he will run very well.”
Dennis Drier’s Cape Town contingent are beginning to run into form and for a few weeks last season Generalissimo held the 1 200m course record. “He may need it,” says the trainer, emphasising the word may, “but he is doing very well.”
Mister Matchett started slowly when third to Exelero three weeks ago and is now 1.5kg better. However Chris Puller says he didn’t lose very much ground that day.
Gulf Storm, fourth in that race, could pose a bigger threat while stable companion Sail South (seventh) and Happy Forever (ninth) did lose ground at the off. The latter has since been dropped a kilo.
Asstar (eighth) has a chance – he still looks as if he has yet to reach his potential – while Zambezi River has won half his ten starts and has a back-to-form genius in the irons. But it’s too short for King Of Pain and Double Whammy has surely been off too long, Triptique is 1.5kg under sufferance and for once the Snaith runners are hard to fancy while the much-travelled Talktothestars attempts what would be an amazing inter-province hat-trick and will be a big price.
By Michael Clower
Picture: Aldo Domeyer
Jade Vine can have them in a tangle
PUBLISHED: November 13, 2015
The Greyville polytrack is the next best thing now that the Vaal sand is a thing of the past…
With the Vaal sand a thing of the past, the next best surface for the confirmed sand larks appears to be the Greyville poly track. Many an older horse with mileage on the clock has been given a second chance as the more forgiving surface seems to be a little kinder on aging legs.
Further, given that the polytrack ratings are the same as turf ratings, most of the horses with high sand ratings and low turf ratings appear ‘tossed’ in at the weights in their first few outings on the poly.
This has been a valuable point to consider when hunting winners on the poly and Jade Vine is an example. She was unlucky not to make a winning poly debut behind stable companion and poly specialist Chennai Babe and looks set to run another big race this evening.
With a sand rating of 96 she made her poly debut off a 67 and came in for a ton of market support, backed in from 10-1 to start 28-10. However Andrew Fortune made a rare error of judgement running up a blind alley and she finished fourth beaten less than two lengths. Sean Tarry’s runner jumps off the same mark in the sixth at Greyville tonight and Fortune will be looking to make amends.
Jade Vine takes on a progressive filly in Way Out Front looking for her third win on the bounce but although she is probably running off a capped merit rating after getting the maximum six pounds for her last win in a Novice Plate, she still has to give Jade Vine 2,5kg which could be beyond her.
Another interesting runner tonight is the veteran Across The Ice. Tarry does not give up on his horses because of age and if he thinks there is still potential he keeps them rolling. Nine-year-old Across The Ice is an accomplished sprinter on the sand with a peak rating of 106. Recent form has seen him drop to 100 but he jumps off an 88 turf rating this evening. That coupled with apprentice Eric Ngwane taking a further 4kg off his back he could well prove to be the joker in the pack in spite of his indifferent recent sand form.
Likely favourite here is the Glen Kotzen-trained Hip Hop Dancer. The lightly raced gelding pulled up lame last run after making a smart return to the track from a three month break. This will be his third outing since and with a handy weight and inside draw he should be a factor.
Another to have found his form on the poly is the American-bred Nicklaus. Unbeaten in two starts for his new stable he takes a further rise in class when he contests the fifth. However, he showed no signs of stopping when beating Last Tiger recently jumping from the worst of the draw. He has pulled gate 2 tonight and he can row in again in spite of the stronger opposition.
By Andrew Harrison
Follow the money
PUBLISHED: November 11, 2015
With the increase of well-backed favourites arriving at Turffontein, it could pay to follow the money…
The Highveld spring season is in full swing and the form is starting to hold up with an increased number of well-backed favourites arriving at Turffontein in the past week. With this trend in mind, it could pay to follow the money at the Inside Track tomorrow.
Dublin Rebel should get favourite-backers off to a good start in the opener. The son of Jay Peg is returning from a slight break but the form of his last outings is far superior to anything else on offer in this Work Riders Maiden Plate.
Market movements are likely to be of less significance in a competitive first leg of the Bipot with the primary fancies being the two course and distance specialists, Beach In A Bottle and Loco Por Ganar, together with Finchatton who has been campaigning against stronger.
But it’s worth monitoring the boards before attempting a Place Accumulator with the third looking open to domination by first timers. There’s very little to enthuse over in terms of recent form, although the keen-racing Sweet Singer could be better suited by this shorter trip, and any support for debutantes Sapphire Girl, Clever Move and Submergence should be respected.
First timers are often avoided in the Pick 6 but it may be safer to include a few this time around with again little form on offer in the fourth. Of the raced runners, big improvement is expected from Sao Paulo who was green on debut and possibly Relampago who has been running on over shorter. But the jockey bookings for the first timers Invincible Flame, Trip To India and Winning Sister have not gone unnoticed and neither will any market support they attract.
Alec Laird’s Ntoma will be a popular banker in the opening leg of the Jackpot and justifiably. The 89-rated maiden, well clear of the rest in her last two starts, finally cracks a decent draw and should get off the mark.
The next three races are tricky and punters are advised to go as wide as possible in exotics. Noah From Goa and Bull Valley are likely to top the boards in the sixth but handicaps limited to three-year-olds often throw up results and it could pay dividends to look further down in the weights toward Coral Fever and Lunar Approach.
Similarly, Sapsan and Sharp Princess will be popular inclusions in the seventh, a three-year-old fillies handicap. But it’s difficult to eliminate any of these on overall form and once again it’s worth considering runners further down the weights, especially Miracle Rising, News Filter and Gold Shades.
Sean Tarry has a strong coupling in the eighth, Hawaiian Sun and Heptagon, but both have wide draws to contend with and this brings quite a few others into the race. Flaming Ace and Pyramus are easy to find on form but Nahoon Beach could be one that’s overlooked. He ran a cracker at the weights behind Brazuca and Front Rank in a Graduation Plate last time out and looks well in here back in a handicap.
The market could again be a good indicator in the last with a few noteworthy first timers to consider but the consistent Golden Man could be worth bankering in smaller Pick 6 perms to qualify as the first raced runner home.
By Brendan Pather
Picture: Alec Laird
Remembering Pat Eddery
PUBLISHED: November 11, 2015
The racing community bids farewell to one of the greatest jockeys of all time, Pat Eddery…
Pat Eddery, champion Flat jockey 11 times and the winner of 14 British Classics, has died at the age of 63. Eddery was one of the most successful riders of all time and partnered more than 4 600 winners. He also won four Arcs and was aboard Dancing Brave for his breath-taking triumph in 1986.
His CV is punctuated with many of the world’s other great races including a brace of Gold Cups, two King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes and he was also champion jockey in Ireland in 1982, 27 years after his father Jimmy had won the title for the second time.
As well as Dancing Brave, he was associated with some of the best racehorses of the late 20th century, among them Bosra Sham, Sadler’s Wells, Rainbow Quest, El Gran Senor, Grundy, Zafonic, Warning and Pebbles, whom Eddery won the Breeders’ Cup Turf on in 1985. Only Sir Gordon Richards has ridden more winners than him in Britain.
Eddery retired in 2003 and began training, sending out his first runner in 2005. It would have been almost impossible for him to match his achievements in the saddle, but he did enjoy a Group 1 victory when Hearts Of Fire won Italy’s Gran Criterium in 2009.
Eddery and Michael Roberts became very good friends over the years. “We travelled together a lot – to Japan, Breeders’ Cup, all over so I got to know him well,” he said yesterday. “He became a very good friend. His passing is so sad.
“He was tough jockey and a great horseman. He had one of the best pair of hands ever. He also had a unique style and to watch him ride was like watching poetry in motion.”
Robert Edmondson, Eddery’s close friend and former weighing room colleague, said on Tuesday morning: “He was one of the greats – without doubt.
“He was a wonderful rider and loved horses. He was a natural and wanted to win more than anything.”
Steve Drowne, Joint President of the Professional Jockey’s Association, said: “Pat was a truly great jockey in every way. He was the man we all aspired to be in the saddle. Everyone looked up to him in the weighing room. Just a great person to be around. A Professional’s Professional.”
By Andrew Harrison
Jockeys John Egan, Eddie Ahern, Frankie Dettori and Franny Norton lift Eddery after his final race (aboard Gamut in the CIU Selby Stakes Race run at Doncaster on November 8, 2003).
Photograph: Andy Watts/Racingphotos/Rex Shutterstock
Visit http://www.theguardian.com/sport/gallery/2015/nov/10/pat-eddery-a-life-in-pictures for the full slide show.
Class fillies steal the show
PUBLISHED: November 10, 2015
The two best Cape fillies will take each other on tomorrow at Kenilworth…
It’s the match of the day. Chevauchee and Bela-Bela, the two best Cape Fillies Guineas candidates not to run in last Saturday’s Choice Carriers Championship, take each other on in the Place Your Bets Handicap at Kenilworth today.
Both have won their only starts, despite dawdling out of the pens, and both earned rave reviews for the talented way they disposed of the opposition.
There is no form line but the handicappers have assessed Chevauchee as about a length the better and have weighted the pair accordingly. The bookmakers have also stuck their necks out with Betting World opening Chevauchee favourite at 8-10 yesterday and offering 15-10 about Bela-Bela. World Sports Betting favours Chevauchee even more, quoting her at 6-10 and her rival at 2-1. Speedball, considered by both firms to be the biggest danger, is as big as 8-1.
The evidence of the form book is far from conclusive. The three who finished immediately behind Bela-Bela were fourth, first and second on their next start. Chevauchee (pronounced Chev-O-Shay according to Ridgemont manager Craig Carey) ran more recently and the only placed horse in her race to have run since is the second, Honest Ally, who started favourite last Saturday and finished third.
The one person really in a position to judge their relative merits is Bernard Fayd’Herbe who won on both and this time is claimed by Ridgemont for Chevauchee. “They are two very good fillies but they are very different,” he says. “One is very athletic and the other is a big strong sort.”
In other words it is just as difficult for him to choose between them. So what do the trainers think?
“Bela-Bela is a very nice filly and she is doing well,” says Justin Snaith. “I didn’t want to run her from a bad draw in the Choice Carriers. She again has a bad draw here so we will give her a chance in the race.”
But the field has since been reduced to six and Chevauchee’s draw advantage much diminished. Joey Ramsden says: “The Choice Carriers would have been a bit soon for Chevauchee and she would have been drawn wide. Also she might not have got a run. Going round the turn will suit her and this time we’ve got the draw.”
It’s Chevauchee who gets the writer’s vote but it’s not much more than a coin-tossing decision. It promises to be a fascinating contest and the winner could well prove a worthy opponent for Silver Mountain.
Half Moon Hotel ran way above his rating when fourth to Blarney Bay and Captain America in the Hollard Humdinger Pinnacle at the end of last month and on that performance he is absolutely thrown in with only 53kg in the Itsarush.co.za Handicap (race six).
But at the age of six he hasn’t suddenly made miraculous improvement – “It was a big surprise,” says Vaughan Marshall. “But they went a decent pace and what he likes is a good, hard gallop.”
Anthony Andrews’ mount has to be the selection – particularly as you can get 8-1 about him. In The Cruise (4-1) and Sheer Trouble (22-10) look the dangers.
Dean Kannemeyer’s Cape Laddie opened 18-10 favourite for the first but Angkor Wat looks better at 2-1 despite not having raced since Durbanville in July, while evens favourite Duke The Duke should recoup last time’s losses in race three.
By Michael Clower
Picture: Bernard Fayd’Herbe (Nkosi Hlophe)