Racing guru Jay August has been providing a myriad valuable stats for industryman to work with recently and one of his recent revelations might well have an impact on the pace in this year’s Vodacom Durban July.

August points out that the first 1200m of the 2017 July was run in a fast 73,4 seconds, which enabled Marinaresco to come from way off the pace to win.

However, he reckoned the slow opening 1200m of both the 2018 and 2019 July’s, 76,7 seconds and 75,6 seconds respectively, played into the hands of Do It Again due to his superior sprinting speed.

August points out that in a normal turf race the finishing speed for the winner would be around 102-103% where finishing speed is the final 400m average metres per second compared to the horse’s average metres per second for the rest of the race.

He goes on to say that in the 2018 July Do It Again’s finishing speed was an astounding 109%.

He also pointed out that Vardy had produced a high finishing percentage in the Gold Challenge when coming from last off a crawl to run Rainbow Bridge to a 0,90 length second.

So if Do It Again is back to his best he won’t mind a slow pace again.

Vardy will probably actively want a slow pace as he is yet to prove he stays this trip.

Rainbow Bridge and Twisted Fate, second and third last year, will need the pace to be quicker as they were unable to match the sprinting speed of Do It Again in the straight from handy positions.

Eyes Wide Open, Miyabi Gold and Camphoratus were able to produce good finishes from off that slow pace last year to get into the places, which is interesting as they will be carrying the same minimum weights. 

Of course not all of those who would benefit from a slow pace would mind a fast pace. 

Most top horses prefer a good pace, as long as they have the necessary stamina reserves, as their superior VO2 max (the measurement of the maximum amount of oxygen an athlete can utilize during intense exercise) enables them to keep going while others are crying enough.

So where will the pace come from this year then?

The four key horses look to be Silvano’s Pride, Padre Pio, Rainbow Bridge and Twist Of Fate. 

The draw will also play an important role in determining the pace.

A natural front runner would probably not want to be drawn too low as this would mean he or she would have to use up a bit of fuel early to hold his or her position. 

Being drawn wider out gives the horse a chance to move to the front at a steady tempo, although if the inside drawn horses are rushing this horse will then have to step up a gear.

Nevertheless, Silvano’s Pride showed last time when comfortably winning the Grade 2 Tibouchina she has enough pace to lead over 1400m, so she should definitely have enough pace to lead over 2200m even if it is in a Grade 1 against the boys.

In fact she led the Grade 1 Woolavington 2000 last year and won that too.

The point that will make her a dangerous runner in the July is that she was able to dictate in both the Woolavington 2000 and the Tibouchina. 

Punters often make the mistake of looking through a card and if finding a front-runner they automatically assume the pace will be good.

However, if that front-runner is able to dictate then it will likely lead to a controlled pace more likely to suit the leader and not as fast as the others will need or want. 

Therefore, as Silvano’s Pride is able to dictate, it must now be determined whether there are any in the field who will be willing to take her on.

Padre Pio is a definite candidate as he opened up a big lead in the Grade 1 Daily News 2000. He showed he was also able to respond to the rider’s instructions despite facing the breeze as he was cleverly given a breather coming up the hill. Visually it looked as if he was folding but instead he amazed many by finding plenty in the straight and finishing a 1,50 length second.

Of the aforementioned pair it is going to be a lot easier on paper for four-year-old Silvano’s Pride because off her 118 merit rating she sneaks into the handicap carrying the minimum weight for a female of 52kg. 

Three-year-old Padre Pio, on the other hand, will be 4,5kg under sufferance carrying 53kg.   

Rainbow Bridge will also be a candidate to lead. 

In last year’s Grade 1 Champions Cup over 1800m he over-raced when caught without cover and showed what a superstar he was by still winning the race cosily. He was thus always going to be interesting if taken to the front and in this year’s Grade 1 Hollywoodbets Gold Challenge over 1600m he showed that he was able to relax and dictate when taken to the head of affairs. However, he will never again be given as easy a lead as he was given in that race.  

Twist Of Fate is another who has been effective from the front before. 

Rainbow Bridge and Twist Of Fate would both want it faster than either Silvano’s Pride and Padre Pio, so the pace picture is most intriguing this year. 

Furthermore, there will be eleven runners in total carrying the minimum weight for their respective genders and those of them who are capable of being up there might want to force the pace in order to ensure the higher weighted more fancied runners have to carry those big masses. 

The annual pace question will be one of the debates emanating from the final field and draw ceremony next Tuesday.

By David Thiselton

Frank Robinson’s Australian-bred mare Roy’s Riviera will run for the third weekend in succession in the Grade 2 Track And Ball Oaks over 2400m at Hollywoodbets Scottsville on Saturday in her bid to qualify for the Vodacom Durban July.

She finished a disappointing last place in the Grade 3 Cup Trial over 1800m after being caught in a handy position without cover and appearing to travel too strongly.

However, Robinson said the tough five-year-old daughter of All Too Hard had come out of the race very well and added, “Her legs were ice cold and her blood was good, so there was nothing untoward at all and she looks amazing. She probably just ran too freely in her second run after a six month layoff.”

Roy’s Riviera was among the five horses just outside the top 20 on the last July log so a good run on Saturday might see her still making the final field.

Robinson said he would probably remove the blinkers as she cannot afford to race too freely again over this longer trip.

This mare always appears to be underestimated by the oddsmakers and a closer look at her career shows that she is very capable.

She ran unplaced in this race last year and had few excuses as she was well drawn and had a good passage. However, her previous race had been in the Lonsdale Stirrup Cup, also over 2400m, where she finished fifth and was just a shorthead and behind subsequent Gold Cup winner Dynasty’s Blossom to whom she gave 2kg.

So this year coming in off a 1400m run and an 1800m race she has likely had a better preparation although those races have come on top of each other.

Her sire All Too Hard won three Group 1s over 1400m in Australia and one Group 1 over 1600m but he also finished a neck second in the prestigious Group 1 Cox Plate over 2000m at Moonee Valley. Roy’s Riviera’s half-sister Sebring Sally finished fourth in a Group 1 over the Track and Ball Oaks distance of 2400m and her grandam won over 2100m.

Sereno Moodley rides on Saturday partly due to Robinson’s promise to give him the ride in the July.

By David Thiselton 

The Grade 3 Cup Trial winner Capoeira has been supplemented into the Vodacom Durban July.

The four-year-old Andre Nel-trained Oratorio gelding won Saturday’s open handicap event by 1,80 lengths off a merit rating of 110 and has been raised by the handicappers to 115.

This means he will be 2,5kg under sufferance in the big race off the 53kg he will be set to carry but as is well documented only seven horses in the race will be in the handicap i.e. not under sufferance.

Capoeira showed himself to be not far behind the best when finishing a 6,50 length third to Hawwaam at level weights in last year’s Grade 1 Daily News 2000.

The winner of the Cup Trial does not gain automatic entry into the July under the conditions of the race but is given “preferential consideration.”

By David Thiselton 

Rainbow Bridge and Vardy are the joint top weights in this year’s Vodacom Durban July carrying 60kg. 

Only eight of the 27 horses still standing (26 acceptors and one supplementary entry) are in the handicap according to official merit ratings and 19 are under sufferance.

The eight horses in the handicap with their merit rating and weight in brackets are:

Rainbow Bridge (134 60kg)

Vardy (134 60kg)

Do It Again (133 59,5kg)

Soqrat (132 59kg)

Twist Of Fate (127 56,5kg)

Bunker Hunt (124 55kg)

Tierra Del Fuego (124 55kg)

Silvano’s Pride (118 52kg)

Below is the full list of weights. Horses in red are scratched.

0	Hawwaam	Scratched	(4C)	60	134	A M	Mike de Kock
0	Rainbow Bridge	Accepted	(5G)	60	134	A	Eric Sands
0	Vardy	Accepted	(4G)	60	134	A	Adam Marcus
0	Do It Again	Accepted	(5G)	59.5	133	A	Justin Snaith
0	Soqrat (AUS)	Accepted	(4C)	59	132	A	Mike de Kock
0	Twist Of Fate	Accepted	(4C)	56.5	127	BA	Adam Marcus
0	Bunker Hunt	Accepted	(4G)	55	124	A	Justin Snaith
0	Tierra Del Fuego	Accepted	(4C)	55	124	A	Sean Tarry
0	$Queen Supreme (IRE)	Scratched	(4F)	54	122	A	Mike de Kock
0	Chijmes	Scratched	(4G)	53	120	A	Gary Alexander
0	Belgarion	Accepted	(4G)	53	119	A	Justin Snaith
0	Got The Greenlight	Accepted	(3C)	53	118	AT	Joe Soma
0	It’s My Turn	Accepted	(7G)	53	118	A	Dean Kannemeyer
0	Divine Odyssey	Accepted	(5G)	53	117	A	J A Janse van Vuuren
0	Shango	Accepted	(3C)	53	116	BAT	Sean Tarry
0	$Capoeira	(4G)	53	115	BA	Andre Nel
0	Eyes Wide Open	Accepted	(5G)	53	115	A	Glen Kotzen
0	Golden Ducat	Accepted	(3G)	53	115	A	Eric Sands
0	Hero’s Honour	Accepted	(5G)	53	115	A	Gary Alexander
0	Padre Pio	Accepted	(3G)	53	115	A	Dennis Bosch
0	Roy Had Enough (AUS)	Scratched	(5H)	53	115	A	Frank Robinson
0	Magnificent Seven	Scratched	(5G)	53	114	A	Justin Snaith
0	Pack Leader	Accepted	(5G)	53	111	BA	Glen Kotzen
0	Crown Towers (AUS)	Scratched	(4G)	53	109	A	Justin Snaith
0	Tristful	Accepted	(4G)	53	109	A	Tony Rivalland
0	Sachdev	Scratched	(3G)	53	108	A	Justin Snaith
0	Western Fort	Accepted	(3C)	53	108	CA	Paul Peter
0	Herodotus	Scratched	(4G)	53	107	CA	Glen Kotzen
0	Nexus	Scratched	(4G)	53	107	A	Justin Snaith
0	G G’s Dynasty	Scratched	(4G)	53	106	A	Brett Crawford
0	Leopold	Scratched	(3G)	53	106	A	J A Janse van Vuuren
0	D’ Arrivee	Scratched	(5G)	53	105	A	Candice Dawson
0	Majestic Mozart	Scratched	(4G)	53	105	AT	Candice Bass-Robinson
0	Promiseofamaster	Scratched	(3G)	53	104	A	Candice Dawson
0	Cornish Pomodoro	Scratched	(3C)	53	102	AT	Sean Tarry
0	Silver Host	Scratched	(3G)	53	102	A	Justin Snaith
0	Cat Daddy	Scratched	(4G)	53	101	A	Glen Kotzen
0	Duke Of Spin	Accepted	(4G)	53	101	A	Mike de Kock
0	Liberty Hall	Scratched	(3G)	53	101	A	Dean Kannemeyer
0	More Magic	Scratched	(4G)	53	101	A	Candice Bass-Robinson
0	Sovereign Spirit	Accepted	(4G)	53	100	BA	Candice Bass-Robinson
0	Tree Tumbo	Scratched	(3G)	53	99	A	Sean Tarry
0	Vikram	Scratched	(4G)	53	99	BA	Andre Nel
0	Alibi Guy	Scratched	(3G)	53	98	A	Mike de Kock
0	Born To Perform	Scratched	(5G)	53	98	PA	Dennis Bosch
0	Azores	Scratched	(3G)	53	97	A	Dean Kannemeyer
0	Silvano’s Pride	Accepted	(4F)	52	118	A	Justin Snaith
0	Snapscan	Scratched	(4F)	52	118	A	Glen Kotzen
0	Miyabi Gold	Accepted	(5M)	52	115	A	Justin Snaith
0	Lady Of Steel	Scratched	(3F)	52	113	A	J A Janse van Vuuren
0	Victoria Paige	Accepted	(3F)	52	112	A M	Sean Tarry
0	Roy’s Riviera (AUS)	Accepted	(5M)	52	111	BA	Frank Robinson
0	Camphoratus	Accepted	(5M)	52	110	A	R A Hill/S R Hill
0	Return Flight	Scratched	(4F)	52	106	AT	Sean Tarry
(54)

Total Entries: 54

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Use and display of the data or any extracts from it in any commercial context requires a licence from the NATIONAL HORSE RACING BUREAU.

By David Thiselton 

Vodacom Durban July fever is building and with just 19 days until the big race the general public will be attempting to either match their dreams to the names of July runners or match the latter to current events.

One old July myth is that a good sardine run leads to the favourite winning.

Do It Again is likely the most topical name in the field as he will be attempting to “do it again” by winning the race for a history-making third time in succession. 

This year sees the 50th anniversary of the July being run over the distance of 2200m and as a 50th anniversary is called a “golden anniversary” the mare Miyabi Gold and the three-year-old gelding Golden Ducat fit that bill.

It is the 25th anniversary of Queen Elizabeth II and the Duke Of Edinburgh visiting the Greyville racecourse and names which relate to royalty among the entries are the fancied Belgarion, who is a mythical king, and Sovereign Spirit and Crown Towers, both of whom are unlikely to make the final field.

A 25th anniversary is known as a “silver anniversary” so Bunker Hunt is the most appropriate horse relating to the royal visit. Nelson Bunker Hunt and his brothers attempted to corner the world’s silver market in the 1970s and had nearly done so by 1980 before government intervention saw their empire collapsing. 

Got The Greenlight could be a topical name at a stretch as many businesses await the government greenlight to reopen.

Tristful means sad and this year’s July being run behind closed doors will be a sad reality.

A pandemic that can be matched to the COVID-19 was the Spanish flu which raged about 100 years ago between 1918 and 1920 and a hero of that time was Padre Pio, who due to a shortage of doctors used to administer vaccines himself and it might have been the reason he contracted the deadly disease himself although he did survive it. Padre Pio is currently twelfth on the July log.

In 1520, exactly 500 years ago, the Portuguese explorer Ferdinand Magellan sailed past an archipelago off the southernmost tip of the South American mainland and saw many fires flicking in the darkness. He thus called it Tierra Del Fuego (“land of fire”). Tierra Del Fuego was 15th on the last July log.

There have been many topical winners of the July and three examples are described below.

In June 1960 the Springboks beat the All Blacks 13-0 and both tries were scored by the left wing, Hennie van Zyl, who wore jersey no. 13. A week later the July was won by a horse called Left Wing who carried saddle cloth no 13, so it has ever since been known as “The Rugby July.”

In 1981, shortly before the wedding of Prince Charles and Lady Dianne Spencer, the July was won by a horse called Big Charles.

In 2004 the number ten horse Greys Inn carried the South African flag on his saddle cloth to symbolize ten years of democracy, he duly won the race.

In the comments section below please mention any topical names you are able to spot among the current entries.

By David Thiselton