Urged on by carryover Pick 6
PUBLISHED: September 25, 2015
With the Pick 6 expected to reach just under R5 million everyone is going to try and get it right on Saturday at The Vaal…
The supporting features at the Vaal on Saturday will be full of intrigue and getting them right will help punters land a piece of the Pick 6 pool which is expected to reach close to R5 million.
The first leg of the Pick 6, the Non-Black Type Investec Sophomore Fillies 1000 sees the reappearance of the exciting Lucky Houdalakis-trained Var filly Speedy Gonvarlez, who converted all the talk into reality on debut when scooting in by eight lengths over course and distance. She could improve further but the field she faced last time was uninspiring and she might not quite be a banker.
Her stablemate Howdulikeit showed sudden improvement to win her maiden over 1200m on the sand and then beat her well regarded stablemate Firstimesacharm easily over 1300m on turf, admittedly when receiving 2,5kg. She went to the front in both those wins and is interesting stepped down to this trip. Speedy Suzy has speed and class and being by Trippi should love the sand. There is not much between her and Mella Maria, who also makes her sand debut. Perfumed Lady also won easily on debut on turf and could improve further.
In the second leg, the Non-Black Type SAP Sophomore 1000, Sean Tarry rates Faberge Style, who is the only filly in the field, his best chance on the day and she has a shout having won her maiden over course and distance by over ten lengths. However, Haddington ran a comfortably quicker time than her when winning on debut over course and distance and being by Ideal World he will likely have a lot of scope for improvement. Noah From Goa converted yard confidence over course and distance on debut and could also improve and for wider the two topweights Alaca and Kingoftheworld should be considered.
The third leg is the Listed Britehouse Supreme Fillies and Mares Stakes and the ever improving Walking On The Air has been unfortunate to have a merit rating that falls at the very bottom of one of the weight bands, meaning she is officially 2kg under sufferance with some of the opposition, but that might not stop her from a draw of two that will suit her handy style of running down to the ground.
Peep Show should be on top of Walking On Air at the line according to the weight turnaround from their last meeting and showed last time when winning in commanding style over course and distance that she is improving, which is not surprising being by Ideal World. Topweight Antonia’s Fortress is an interesting sand debutant being by Fort Wood and having been close behind the Equus award winner Hammie’s Hooker in the Prix du Cap over this sort of distance, so she must have a shout with Andrew Fortune up over a suitable trip.
Maria Theresa is interesting on this surface for the first time being by Dynasty and it is a suitable trip, although she does have a wide draw to overcome. Run For Revelry comes in at the top of one of the merit rated bands, so is officially well weighted and she could improve on her last start over course and distance when well beaten by Peep Show as she jumps from pole position instead of draw ten.
The fifth leg of the Pick Six is the Listed SAP Hampton Handicap over 1000m and the brilliant Trip Tease has to lug 63,5kg off a merit rating of 114 but this might not stop him considering how well he won last time over course and distance despite banging his head on the starting stalls. This day often suits ultra speedy types so the pacey Victorious, who is only 0,5kg under sufferance carrying 52kg, could be good each/way value especially considering he should love the surface on pedigree.
Trip Tease’s stablemate Varbration has Andrew Fortune up and showed he handles sand when comfortably winning the World Sports Betting Sprint over this distance at Flamingo Park, so he could be a threat off just a three point higher merit rating and receiving 7kg from Trip Tease. Another stablemate Wishful Heart is improving and is 4kg better off with Trip Tease for a 3,5 length beating so could get closer. Doing It For Dan is yet another stablemate in with a chance considering he won comfortably over course and distance in his penultimate start, despite breaking through the stalls. The fifth of the Louis Goosen runners is the talented One Man’s Dream who makes his sand debut over his ideal trip. Tiger Territory can never be ignored over course and distance as he is very quick on his day and has won six times from eleven starts over course and distance.
The final leg of the Pick 6 is the Listed Banyana Handicap and the flying Judpot filly Little Genie might still be running off a capped merit rating having once again destroyed them in a 1000m handicap on the turf to record a hattrick last time out. Drifting Dusk is a big powerful sort who is sure to be running on strongly. Brigtnumberfour is all heart and there is not much between her and Drifting Dusk. Easy Street showed her liking for the course and distance when winning easily on her sand debut and she could continue to progress. Sarve has a touch of class and can’t be ignored despite carrying topweight as she has won twice over course and distance before.
By David Thiselton
Picture: Faberge Style (Nkosi Hlophe)
Keep an eye on Campbell
PUBLISHED: September 23, 2015
Lookout for Trainer Doug Campbell who has some strong winning chances at Greyville this Friday night…
Greyville’s eight race meeting could herald a return to form for private Richmond-based trainer Doug Campbell, who has some strong winning chances.
In the first, a maiden for fillies and mares over 1000m, the well-bred Mogok filly Race Me Home is well regarded by Campbell and has caught the eye in two starts over this trip. One concern is that she has jumped slowly both times, but Campbell is hoping she will be well placed from a good draw with Anthony Delpech up. Campbell could hardy separate her from Dark Rose who is best suited to this trip and on formlines has a fine chance from a good draw. Chapel Queen has pace but has 1,75 lengths to make up on Race Me Home from their meeting, where both were making their debuts, and she is drawn wide. However, she improved in her second start and can’t be written off. Glimmer Of Silver showed pace over 1200m last time and is an improving sort who is interesting stepped down to this trip with a tongue tie on, although she does have a wide draw to overcome. Antarctica is improving and runs for an in form yard. None of the first-timers make particular appeal.
The second is a Maiden over 1000m. Y’retheone was squeezed out late last time over 1000 last time when showing pace so could have got closer and he now has a 4kg claimer up from a good draw, so looks the one to beat. Shreya’s Star has caught the eye running against some good sorts and last time made up a lot of ground after losing a few lengths at the start and could be excused for running out of puff late. Bank It has fared well against some useful sorts and has early pace and Anthony will help him overcome a wide draw. Lord Luton’s best run was over course and distance and he now has a tongue tie on after making a respiratory noise in that race. Roy’s Power should be running on well over a suitable course and distance. Strummer is by Var out of the Sportsworld mare Hello Margarita, who was placed third in both the Gr 1 Allan Robertson over 1200m and the Gr 1 Cape Guineas, and he is a half-brother to the useful Cruzwithmecaptain, but Campbell believes he will be better from 1200m upward.
The third is a MR 74 Handicap over 1000m. Fire The Rocket is coming off a fine 0,75 length third over course and distance last weekend in a Pinnacle Stakes and after being freshened up he is so well in himself that he Campbell is keeping him in the race. A repeat of that last performance in this handicap will make him hard to beat. However, he is only 1kg better off with National Approval, who beat him over course and distance recently and has landed another plum draw. Ho’oponopono has plenty of speed and is interesting stepped back to this trip. However, he is an unsound type which is always a concern. All True Man was slow into stride when beaten 0,9 lengths by National Approval last time and is now 1kg better off so should be thereabouts. Antwerp is a talented but difficult sort who could go well fresh over this trip and Frisket has scope for further improvement.
The fourth is a very open MR 86 Handicap over 1400m. Mackdesi won well over course and distance last time and being by Galileo will be continually improving. Silva Hawk has a touch of class and was hanging late when going close over 1600m last time, so is interesting stepped back to this trip. Mumsy’s Jet is a reliable sort who jumps from a good draw over an ideal course and distance and the trainer described him as “fit, fit, fit”, despite having last run at the beginning of July, as he is a smallish horse who “trains himself.” Way Of Light must overcome a six point raise for his last win but won his only start over course and distance and represents an in form yard. Just Ask Me, Cinema Scope and Tuscan can’t be ignored.
In the fifth over 1600m Peace Again was unlucky last time when running on as usual and she now has a plum draw. Lertasha has come into her own and can overcome an eight point raise for her easy last win over this ideal trip. Gr 1-winner Bilateral is coming to hand and this is her ideal trip. Supercede would prefer further but can’t be ignored running fresh with a 4kg claimer up. Kileigh is talented but enigmatic and in the right mood could easily cause an upset.
In the sixth over 1600m Alzerra has hard-knocking Cape Town form, where horses’ merit ratings are often suppressed by the class of horse they are up against, so she is the one to beat from pole position. Campbell expects a good run from Swanee River, who loves the poly and has come down to a competitive merit rating over a suitable trip after being unlucky over 1900m last time. Lemon Tea would prefer further but is coming into her own and will be running on strongly.
In the seventh over 1600m Leopard Lily faces weaker than she has been and is well drawn over a suitable trip. Mark My Card was not disgraced against a strong field last time over 1200m and should not only enjoy the step up in trip but being by Miesque’s Approval should love the poly. Campbell expects a good run from Overlap who was unlucky the last time she went this course and distance.
In the last over 2000m the hard-knocking Princess Varunya will relish the step up in trip on pedigree and will be hard to beat provided she settles, as she has over-raced over 1600m before. Ravishing Romance is an improving sort who is proven over this trip. Wind Trader runs as if she would enjoy the step up in trip and could plug on into the money.
By David Thiselton
Picture: Doug Campbell (Nkosi Hlophe)
Laird expects honest performances
PUBLISHED: September 23, 2015
Alec Laird runs Solar Triptych and Walking On Air in the Supreme Cup but both are not officially well weighted…
Alec Laird runs the improved Trippi gelding Solar Triptych in the Gr 2 R1 million Supreme Cup sponsored by SAP, but both he and the yard’s other feature race runner on the day Walking On Air are not officially well weighted in their respective events.
However, he did say both horses had been working well. Both horses will be ridden by KZN Champion Apprentice Callan Murray.
Solar Triptych carries bottom weight of 50kg, but is weighted 2kg below the top of his particular merit rated band and is therefore 3,5kg under sufferance with the best weighted horse in the race, the filly Jade Vine, and 2kg under sufferance with the best weighted males in the race, Deputy Jud and Isphan. Solar Triptych has improved as he has strengthened but is now five-years-old, so does not have much further scope despite being relatively lightly raced. However, he is an honest sort and would have come on from his last run, so could earn from a fair draw of seven.
Walking On Air contests the Listed Britehouse Supreme Fillies and Mares Stakes over 1450m. Her merit rating is also at the bottom of one of the merit-rated bands, which immediately puts her 2kg out. However, this five-year-old A.P. Arrow mare has shown amazing improvement this season with her turf rating improving from 62 to 79 and her sand rating improving from 62 to 84.
In her last two sand starts over 1450m and 1600m respectively, both handicaps, she has won by 6,8 lengths and 3,25 lengths respectively. In the 1450m start she beat Peep Show by 6,8 lengths, but is now 7kg worse off so they should finish on top of each other on paper, considering margins on the Vaal Sand are treated at 75 % of the normal length/distance factor by the handicapper. However, draws have become important over the course and distance and Walking On Air has cracked a fine draw of two, which will particularly suit her front-running style.
By David Thiselton
Picture: Solar Triptych (Nkosi Hlophe)
Neisius sidelined
PUBLISHED: September 23, 2015
Jockey Karl Neisius will be out of action for a month or possibly longer…
Karl Neisius, who has not ridden since last Saturday week, will be out of action for another month and possibly longer.
He said: “There is inflammation in my lower back and also a bit of osteoporosis. I’ve had it for about a year to a year and a half. It comes and goes but normally it settles down again if I have a break.
“I have seen one or two specialists and they have said that it is basically wear and tear and that I must give it a rest. They will look at it again in about a month from now.”
Neisius, who will be 59 in January, jokes that it is old age creeping up on him but there is no shortage of jockeys who have ridden for longer and his renowned sense of timing is as good as it has ever been.
Devin Ashby, who had an operation on his ankle after a nasty fall at Milnerton last Thursday, will be out for two months.
He said: “I was riding Mayoral Decree, on whom I won at Kenilworth in May, when he came over with me and fell on top of me. The doctors inserted two pins into my ankle but it could have been worse.”
Gerrit Schlechter, though, is optimistic that he will be back shortly. He was off for three months with a prolapsed disc and the problem flared up on his first day back early this month.
He said: “My doctor is waiting for the results of scans and he should have these by Thursday. However the back is getting better and I will probably be able to resume either at the end of the month or early next month.”
By Michael Clower
Picture: Karl Neisius (Liesl King)
Willow in a good place
PUBLISHED: September 23, 2015
Willow Magic is in a good place and could possibly be the one to side with in the Supreme Cup…
Sean Tarry said that while he had chances on Saturday at the Supreme Cup meeting sponsored by SAP, he could not go in overly confident as his string was still not firing on all cylinders at present, although they are going in the right direction and he expected them to peak in about Mid-October.
He has three runners in the Gr 2 R1 million Supreme Cup over 1450m and said Willow Magic would possibly be the one he would side with.
He said, “Willow was given a nice prep down in Durban, where the string has been going well. He might just be needing it but is in a good place and works well on the dirt, so we are hoping.”
On a merit rating of 106 Willow Magic is at the very top of the 56kg merit rating band, so is officially relatively well weighed. He has won a Gr 1 over 1160m and a Gr 2 over 1600m in his career, so this trip should be ideal and being from a Mr Prospector line sire should love the Vaal sand. His draw of nine makes it quite tough but he will be ridden by the brilliant national log-leading jockey Andrew Fortune, who is a master of placing a horse in the running and of pace.
These merit-rated band conditions races favour fillies and mares and Tarry’s five-year-old Argonaut mare Jade Vine is duly the best weighted horse in the race. She is 1,5kg better off than any other horse and carries only 50kg from a good draw of five under Muzi Yeni. However, she has had an interrupted preparation and Tarry said, “She had a mild colic so had to be scratched from her last intended start (1000m event on September 10). She is fit and well and has had no ill effects but the interruption to her preparation is still a bit of a concern.”
Jade Vine has been a facile winner over course and distance before. That was off a merit rating of 68 compared to her current rating of 97 and she has generally run in sprints since then, but Tarry isn’t concerned about the trip.
Tarry’s third runner is Tap Tap Makhatini, who hasn’t run since April, but this is likely a deliberate ploy. Tarry said, “He runs well fresh and is in good shape.”
However against the seven-year-old is that his merit rating is at the very bottom of one of the bands, which puts him 2kg out with some of the males and 3kg out with Jade Vine. Furthermore, he is drawn wide in 14 (comes into 11 if the three reserve runners come out), which makes it tough for this handy-running type. He is effective from 1450-1800m and will be ridden by in-form Karl Zechner. Tarry makes Deputy Jud as well as the Mike de Kock coupling of Toro Rosso and Mootahadee and the Stephen Moffat-trained Roman Carnival as the horses to beat.
Tarry regards Faberge Style, who runs in the Non-Black Type SAP Sophomore 1000 as his probable best runner on the day. The St. Petersburg three-year-old filly won her maiden over this course and distance by 10,25 lengths and followed up by winning over 1200m on the Greyville poly. Under the conditions of the race she is the second best in at the weights on official merit ratings but is less exposed than the horse who is best in, Kingoftheworld, and might be even better than her 88 merit rating suggests.
Tarry runs all of Run For Revelry, Lady Of Kildare and Crystal’s Revenge in the Listed Britehouse Supreme Fillies and Mares Stakes over 1450m. Run For Revelry’s net merit rating is at the very top of her particular band and she is drawn in pole. Krystal’s Revenge’s merit rating is also at the very top of her band, while Lady Of Kildare’s merit rating is only one point below the top of hers, but they are drawn in eleven and twelve respectively. Tarry said, “I can’t really separate them, they all have shouts and are in good shape, but Run For Revelry’s draw is worth quite a bit and I would make her the elect only for that reason.”
The yard’s nine-year-old soldier Across The Ice runs in the Listed SAP Hampton Handicap over 1000m and had excuses for his last two below par runs, which saw him drop down three points in the merit ratings. He was found to have had a respiratory infection which has now been sorted out. Tarry said it would be a touch sharp for him, but gave him an outside chance.
He runs Bold Approach and Super Guppy in the Listed Banyana Handicap over 1000m and said, “Bold Approach has progressed from his last run, but I have no real confidence. Super Guppy is out at the weights (4kg under sufferance).”
He runs three horses in the Non-Black Type Vaal River Handicap over 1800m, but two of them, Escudo and Peregrine are under sufferance by 2kg and 3kg respectively. The other runner Orchestrated should enjoy this trip and Tarry said, “He has been a bit lethargic in his races lately so we have fitted the blinkers and I give him an each/way chance.”
By David Thiselton
Picture: Willow Magic (Nkosi Hlophe)