Renate du Plessis has her first Durbanville runners today when the country courses stages the first of its 11 consecutive meetings.

Two of her three runners are drawn in the bush but the interesting one is Oh So Modus with Karl Neisius (Pictured) up who sprang a 20-1 shock for Paul Reeves here last October and then completely lost his form. Mrs du Plessis has since rejuvenated the horse who has won his last two, the most recent by five lengths.

There is often a suspicion – not to put it more strongly – that Port Elizabeth winners are moved up the ratings too quickly and so have little chance in other centres.

Oh So Modus, to be ridden by Karl Neisius for the first time in the 2 400m handicap, was raised 2.5kg for his first Fairview win and a further 4kg for his second. He is now on a mark of 72, much the same as when he started to lose his form after that maiden win.

Mrs du Plessis races mainly in PE, although she trains at Stilbaai which is nearer Cape Town. “There are a lot of polytrack meetings in PE and I have horses which I would like to run on grass,” she says, explaining this trip to Durbanville. “The horses travel on the morning of the race and it will take about three hours.

“I am really enjoying training Oh So Modus who is another reason why I am coming. He is ever-improving and so progressive on the poly, and I now want to give him a go on grass.”

Logic suggests he has it all to do and that punters would be well advised to go for 13-10 favourite Arezzo who is also a course winner and who’s 79 mark is unchanged despite last time’s good Kenilworth run. However an improving horse is always worth following and so the visitor, attractively priced at 4-1 when Betting World posted up the odds yesterday, gets a tentative vote to justify his 230k journey.

Twenty Four Carat was officially reported to be hanging out when joint favourite in a Kenilworth sprint last time and a repeat of that would be disastrous on this left-handed course. “In fact he wasn’t hanging out, he was hanging in,” says Vaughan Marshall and that puts a different complexion on his chance in the opening Gold Circle Maiden.  However fellow 18-10 chance Glanto is marginally preferred as his most recent run reads better.

Exclusive Night is the form horse and 22-10 second favourite for race two (also called the Gold Circle Maiden as is race four!) but he was the one who finished second to Oh So Modus 11 months ago and he still hasn’t won. He will do so one day, maybe even today, but so far he has proved to be one of those expensive sorts who always appears to have a good chance but never quite does it. This is his 29^th attempt and in the circumstances Baksteen at 18-10 looks a more sensible bet.

However don’t ignore 33-10 shot Charlie Strong. “He has been disappointing in that he has taken a long time to win,” admits Adam Marcus. “But he is fit and well and he has run well over this distance here.”

The proven race fitness of 22-10 favourite Bella’s Empire should give her the edge over Mamselle Al (5-2) and Pixelate (28-10) in race four.

By Michael Clower

Picture: Karl Neisius (Liesl King)

The Vaal stages a ten race meeting on the Outside turf track today and there look to be one or two opportunities for punters.

In the first race over 1000m Oculus was backed on debut in a similar field and finished a close second despite losing a length at the start. The Houdalakis yard are in fine form and although Oculus is now drawn on the wrong side by trends he has Strydom up and looks to be good enough to win. The Berry Lady has been knocking on the door and over this trip from a favourable draw can get away with her breathing issues. Antagonist has improved since dropped down to sprints and should be finishing strongly again.

In the second, a maiden for fillies and mares over 1400m, Nowuseeme Nowudont caught the eye going down last time and in the race over 1200m in which she was unlucky, being baulked for a run before finishing strongly. She should love the step up in trip and has a favourable draw. Angel Of Mercy has run two good races, including on debut over course and distance and should be thereabouts from a favourable draw. Elusive Prophecy represents the in form Houdalakis yard and finished well to be close up last time despite making a breathing noise.

In the third, a Maiden over 1400m, Kununata is a talented but difficult sort and he over raced over 1600m last time. He will appreciate the step down in trip but is drawn on the wrong side according to trends so won’t have it easy. Sands Of Time pulled up lame last time but if back to his best has a form chance. De Lujo could be involved if reproducing his best run. Bridegroom Bertie has run two fair races and was still green last time so can improve. William Nicol made a good debut over 1200m in an uninspiring field and should enjoy the step up in trip, although he does have a tricky draw.
In the fourth, a Maiden over 1400m, Kinaan comes from strong KZN maiden formlines and is drawn on the right side over a step up in trip he should enjoy. Baylisiana was green on debut when staying on over 1450m for a 1,6 length third so with natural improvement will be right there. Seven League Boots is by Mambo In Seattle and is a half-brother to the useful Star Jet.

In the fifth, a MR 86 Handicap over 1300m, African Ruler won well second time out over 1200m having finished second in a maiden where the form has worked out very well. This well-bred Trippi gelding should improve over this trip. Angel’s Power has won both of his starts over 1000m and will relish the step up in trip, but he has to give 1,5kg to African Ruler. Roman Calamity beat a fair sort over 1450m in a maiden in June and then finished eight lengths back in the Gr 1 Premier’s Champions Stakes over 1600m. He faded late in the latter event so might enjoy the step down in trip.

In the sixth, a MR 90 Handicap for fillies and mares, Gain Ground is a well regarded, progressive sort who is drawn on the right side with Delpech up and starts off on a reasonable merit rating. Firstimesacharm won convincingly on debut and can improve further, but does have to give the first selection 1,5kg and has a low draw. Intergalactic was hampered last time on the Greyville poly but had shown signs of good ability before that and could also earn.

In the seventh, a MR 91 Handicap over 1200m, Talktothestars, having faced a good field at Scottsville last time when beaten 2,3 lengths over this trip, might appreciate a return to this easier track and could resume winning ways. Gambol will appreciate the step down in trip and could be a threat. Dennisthemenace showed he is competitive off this merit rating last time and could earn.

In the eighth, a merit rated 72 handicap over 1200m, Supanova rallied back to win his debut over course and distance and the form has been franked so he could win off a lowly Merit rating of 63. Cosmic Tom, who represents the in form Houdalaksi yard, ran a good second over course and distance last time and jumps from a favourable draw off the  same merit rating with Weichong Marwing now up. The Gobi bounced back with a fine run over 1160m last time and a repeat of that effort under S’Manga Khumalo could see him involved in the finish.

In Race nine, a MR 68 Handicap over 1600m, Limited Edition ran on well over this trip on the Turffontein Inside track last time and is interesting from a favourable draw. Flaming Ace is in good form but was raised five points for his second place over 1800m last time. Lundy’s Star won a maiden well over course and distance last time and starts his handicap career off a reasonable merit rating.

In Race ten, a MR 69 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1600m, Miristocrat has loved the step up to this trip and looks to have promise so could win this from a favourable draw with Gavin Lerena up.

– David Thiselton

Gerrit Schlechter looks like being out of action for several weeks after his back injury flared up painfully when he returned after three months off at Kenilworth on Saturday.

The July and Met-winning jockey said: “I was fine on Aspen Fire in race two and when True Brave played up badly going down the chute for the next. But I really felt it when he began doing the same thing going to the start.

“Three months ago I had what they call a prolapsed disc – basically a torn ligament in my back. My neuro-surgeon said that the last thing he wanted to do was operate because there would be no comeback if he did. He said to rest it before it tore completely. Now I will have to go back to him again.”

When Schlechter eventually reached the start, several minutes late and still in pain, he was promptly stood down and his mount withdrawn. The race was won by Karl Neisius on Nabisco, the middle leg of Justin Snaith’s second treble in as many days, but the former champion trainer seemed just as impressed with Black Arthur even though the newcomer finished with only two behind him after being backed from 8-1 to 7-2 second favourite.

Snaith said: “He is a special horse but we had no alternative but to drop him out from his wide draw because he didn’t have the experience to go to the front. Also this was my last opportunity to run him for seven weeks.

“I’m not knocking Durbanville – the track is in great nick – but he is a heavy type of horse and the undulations wouldn’t suit him.”

Stable companion Twinkle Toes, who would have started favourite for the Pravda Maiden, has had a setback which saw her going lame on her off-fore and having to be scratched on Thursday evening.

Snaith related: “She injured herself in her first race but it didn’t come out until after her final sprint.”

There were some high trainer expectations for several newcomers in this race but victory went to 8-1 shot Sails Set, the most experienced horse in the field. Aldo Domeyer’s mount is trained by Brett Crawford whose Midnight Breeze, sixth after being backed from 20-1 to 7-1, had a genuine excuse because Robert Khathi’s saddle slipped back from the start.

Vaughan Marshall has some ambitious hopes for Olympian who romped home four lengths clear in the Michaud Agencies Handicap without even having to be shown Domeyer’s stick.

Marshall said: “This horse has got more in the tank and hopefully he is good enough to run in races like the Cape Flying Championship.”

The Mike Bass stable had a frustrating afternoon – two beaten favourites including Arabian Winter being pipped on the post by no more than the hair on the nostrils of the Glen Kotzen-trained Deep Secret – but Greg Cheyne employed much the same inspired last gasp tactics to snatch the last on Sheer Trouble and raise the roof in the Milnerton Medi-Clinic.

Candice Robinson said: “My father is now doing well. He is out of Intensive Care and in a ward. He is still weak – he needs to get himself exercising to get stronger – but he is talking and eating.”

Shock of the day was Piet Steyn’s Belcourt Castle, 28-1 outsider of the ten-runner Perpetua House Handicap. He made all under Brandon May after having the blinkers taken off for the first time in more than 20 races.

By Michael Clower

Picture: Gerrit Schlechter

The answer to the oft posed question; ‘is it possible to make a living from betting on horseracing?’ would probably be ‘yes’ – provided the occupation is treated like any normal business and with equal dedication.

However, a secondary question would be whether the returns justify the time spent? The returns would likely range from extremes of handsome winning months to demoralising losing ones.  Most mortals would not be able handle that sort of pressure. Therefore, the majority of serious punters view the game rather as a means towards supplementing their incomes. However, even this group seldom make a profit from punting and they would likely not need this article to remind them.

Horseracing is a viable betting medium due to the consistency of the thoroughbred. A horse losing by a length over a mile has performed 99,8% as well as the winner. The job of the handicapper is to ensure that they finish even closer next time. This makes it tougher for the punter, but also allows those who do their homework to have “an edge”. Handicappers can slip up and in South Africa they are also bound by certain conditions. This edge is what separates horseracing betting from games of chance.

“Value”  is the cornerstone principle of the most successful professional punters. It is possible to work out that a horse which is paying R10 a win should actually be paying R5, because detailed form analysis reveals that it is better handicapped than its more fancied rivals. The punter who only ever backs these types will make a profit according to the theory of the law of averages. Those who believe the secret is simply to pick the winner no matter the price will likely bet on more races and their strike rates will have to be higher than the value seekers’.

Tote exotics like Jackpots and Place Accumulators are very popular and here once again value plays an important role. Punters looking for a banker who calculate that a third favourite should actually be the favourite will immediately be in the pound seats if this horse converts their confidence. Successful punters would seriously consider making such a horse a banker and if they don’t they would likely only include even bigger priced horses in the betting, having already formed the opinion that their choice will beat the two most fancied horses. Conversely, lesser punters will likely include the first and second favourites for safety’s sake. Therefore their profits will be cut considerably and once again they would likely have to win the exotics more often than the value seekers in order to match the latter’s returns.

The first few races on the card are not part of the Jackpot and Pick 6 exotics, and fittingly are also the best races on which to place win and place bets. This is simply due to the fact that in plate races like Maidens the best horses will come out on top, which is not always the case in handicaps. However, Maidens require serious study and in this regard previous race replays are a valuable tool. In South Africa race replays can be watched on www.racingassociation.co.za while KZN races can be watched on Youtube by searching for “Gold Circle Racing”. Those inexperienced horses which will likely improve in their next starts can be picked out in these replays. Furthermore, collateral form analysis in formguides like Computaform or www.gallop.co.za can enable punters to ascertain the strength of relevant Maiden races. Therefore, excellent value can often be found in these races. Recently, a horse called Antagonist finished third at odds of 75/1 when suddenly dropped down to 1000m from a string of races run over distances between 1600m and 2600m. He was sent out at odds of 45/1 in his next start, also over 1000m, on the grounds that his third place finish had occurred in a weak workrider’s event. However, the replay of the latter race told a different story. Firstly, he had jumped from an unfavourable high draw on the Vaal Inside track and at the business end had been carried even further outward by a compounding horse. He then charged home to finish 1,5 lengths back. He was now jumping from a favourable high draw at Turffonten and collateral form study revealed that this field was not much stronger. The place was paying R8,50, excellent value, and he duly ran on well for a 0,5 length second.

On the other end of the spectrum a horse called Balado started favourite for a maiden at The Vaal over 1400m about a year ago on the grounds he was trained by Sean Tarry, ridden by top workrider Lyle Hewitson, owned by Chris van Niekerk and had improved in just his third start last time out to finish a close second over this trip. However, he was already a six-year-old and the replay of that last start revealed he had had the run of the race and was a decidedly one-paced sort. Collateral form evidence suggested the previous race had been just as weak as this one. He duly finished unplaced and well beaten.

The lesson learnt from the above two examples is that a properly studied race will include analysis to some degree of every horse in the race and not just of the first few in the betting, while betting on a whim must be avoided at all costs.

In this regard the respected UK-based professional punter Alan Potts advises, “Make a plan – what races will you bet on, how many bets, what stakes and so on. The basics since I stopped being a loser have been to watch a lot, listen a little, ignore ‘inside information’, be cynical about hype and rely on my own judgement.”

Most punters probably do arrive at the course with the best laid out plans, but the majority will soon abandon them and end up off the rails.

One of the biggest recognised pitfalls is the “Pot of Gold” mentality” and tied in with this is “FOMO”, which stands for “Fear Of Missing Out.” Having taken a trifecta a punter’s mind will suddenly picture a “roughie” finishing fourth, or two of the outsiders in the aforementioned trifecta finishing one-two. Quartets and exactas are then taken and maybe swingers, all-to-comes and Pick 3s too … just in case. This sort of error will likely put undue pressure on the budget.

However, the probable biggest pitfall of all is to “chase.” A punter makes a handsome profit on Friday and later spends it with abandon. He or she arrives on Saturday with the  remaining money but quickly loses it. Suddenly that spending spree is looking expensive, so he/she draws more money. However, his/her tried and tested theories now tend to go out of the window. Rather, the aim becomes to look for bets that will bring the balance back to square. Logic takes a back seat and it becomes an exercise in throwing away hard earned cash.

– David Thiselton

Justin Snaith is aiming to become the first Cape Town trainer to win the Sansui Summer Cup since Mike Stewart scored with Fire Arch 20 years ago.

He is preparing both Investec Cape Derby runner-up Dynamic and Tabgold 2200 winner Ultimate Dollar for the November 28 Turffontein R2 million showpiece. Both horses travelled to his Johannesburg satellite yard from Durban as did Lineker who is being trained for the even more valuable Ready To Run Cup at the end of next month.

Snaith said: “I now have 12 horses at the satellite yard which is going very well and growing all the time. Ashleigh Hughes is in charge and she is brilliant. She used to be with Gary Alexander and then Weiho Marwing. She worked for me in the last Durban season so she now knows how I do things.”

By Michael Clower

Picture: Justin Snaith