Night In Seattle can turn Winter Classic form upside down in the Winter Derby at Kenilworth tomorrow.

Corne Orffer’s mount was only sixth in last month’s race but the Winter Classic is a notoriously unreliable guide. No horse has won both races since Pocket Power nine years ago and the last seven favourites (often backed on the strength of their running in the Classic) have all been beaten.

The combination of the extra 600m and softer ground usually proves fatal to the supposed form horse but Night In Seattle’s sixth place did not represent his true ability.

“He got badly interfered with in the Classic,” Brett Crawford (pictured) recalls.” He was going as well as the winner but that horse was hanging into him and then another horse came in on him.”

Night In Seattle (5-1 in the Betting World forecast) has won in the soft and his dam won over an extended mile and a half in France, suggesting he should get the trip.

Royal Dreamer sprang an 8-1 surprise in the Classic and is forecast 4-1 joint second favourite with Master’s Eye. He is by the sprinter Rebel King and there is a lot more speed than stamina on the dam’s side. Seemingly, though, this one is different. “He doesn’t sprint,” says Candice Robinson, “and I think he will get the trip. I’m just a bit worried about the pace.”

She needn’t be because Winter Derby king Stan Elley says: “If there isn’t one we are going to make it with My World and I’m really pleased with the way he is doing.”

Elley is bidding for his fourth Winter Derby in seven seasons and My World should go well even though his forecast 9-2 looks a bit short. However he has won in the soft and he is one of only four to have scored over the trip – Even So and the Greg Ennion pair Revved Up and Irish Dynasty are the others.

Liquid Mercury was beaten only three-quarters of a length in the Classic and is forecast 3-1 favourite. Bernard Fayd’Herbe says he gained the impression that the gelding will be better over this trip but he is acutely conscious of his mount’s stamina limitations on pedigree.

By Michael Clower

Mike Bass was bullish of his Vodacom Durban July chances after landing the exact draw he had wanted for his good looking gelding Helderberg Blue. He also has a strong hand in the Gr 1 Jonsson Workwear Garden Province Stakes where he runs Hammie’s Hooker and Inara.

Bass envisaged that from a draw of eight, which is likely to be seven when the second reserve runner comes out, Helderberg Blue would be able to relax in the early stages, while the horses on the inside were rushing to hold their positions and the horses on the outside were unsettled as their jockeys attempted to slot them in.

His four-year-old Jet Master gelding ideally likes to be handy as he is capable of quickening from close to the pace and is then able to stay on resolutely. He has always been well regarded but is a nervous horse and as a youngster often used to run his race before the start.

However, the outstanding horsemanship of the three-times July-winning trainer and the care provided by his professional team have now converted him into a horse who, according to Bass, is now “almost normal.” Helderberg Blue’s new best friend is the recently retired Epic Tale, who accompanies him to the track every morning to keep him calm.

Bass believes the decision to raise Helderberg Blue 12 points for his J&B Met third-place finish was ridiculous, but his charge has now come down three points and has snuck into the handicap with a nice galloping weight of 53,5kg. He will be 4,5kg better off for a 2,35 length beating by Futura in the Met, so has a chance on paper.

He showed improvement in his last start, when fourth in the Gr 3 Cup Trial over 1800m, and is not only two points lower now but will also peak at just the right time. Grant van Niekerk, who went within a hair’s breadth of victory on the outsider Smanjemanje in his July debut in 2012, has his third ride in the big race, having been an unlucky fifth on the filly In The Fast Lane last year.

Bass’ top class Trippi mare Hammie’s Hooker put up a career best performance in last year’s Garden Province Stakes, when getting within 0,75 lengths of the great Beach Beauty, with the rest of a top class field strung out like the washing. Bass said she had been an easier horse to train this year, as she had matured and was a lot stronger, so she should be able to repeat that run from last year. She has drawn in pole position this year, as opposed to last year’s tough barrier position of nine out of ten.

Furthermore, one of the main dangers, Same Jurisdiction, whom she beat last time out by 0,5 lengths when defending her crown in the Gr 2 Tibouchina Stakes over 1400m at Greyville, is drawn wide out in 14. On the downside Same Jurisdiction carried a Gr 1 penalty of 2kg in the Tibouchina, compared to Hammie’s Hooker’s Gr 2 penalty of 1kg, whereas the Garden Province is a pure weight for age race. Furthermore, Bass believes Hammies’ optimum trip is 1400m although he added that she was “fine” with 1600m. Regular pilot Bernard Fayd’Herbe holds the Trippi mare in high regard and knows her well.

Inara (Liesl King)

Inara scoped a bit dirty after her disappointing fifth in the Gr 1 Woolavington 2000 and Bass also believed she was not “comfortable” over the 2000m trip. She followed up her victory in the Gr 1 Maine Chance Farms Paddock Stakes over 1800m with a win  in the Gr 1 Klawervlei Majorca Stakes over 1600m. She had earlier finished second to the mighty Majmu in one of the best form races of the season, the Gr 1 Avontuur Estate Cape Fillies Guineas, so 1600m does look to be her optimum trip. Bass said she was currently fine and would be competitive. She likely needed her run when staying on strongly for second in the Gr 2 KRA Fillies Guineas and should be at her peak now in her third run after a layoff. She has a fine turn of foot and is a big runner from draw seven under Van Niekerk.

The yard also run Mountain Master in the Gr 3 tabGold 2200 and Equity Kicker in the eTHekwini Sprint over 1200m on the polytrack.

Mountain Master is drawn wide but if repeating his fifth place finish in the Gr 2 Betting World 1900 he could have a chance, considering he is now two points lower in the merit ratings.

Equity Kicker was only 3,2 lengths back in the Gr 2 Post Merchants over 1200m, despite being about 3kg under sufferance. He is not well treated at the weights in the eThekwini either. However, he has a plum draw of six and has already proven, like most Trippis, that he enjoys the poly.

By David Thiselton

Seventeen horses, including the two reserve runners for next Saturday’s Vodacom Durban July, were given little more than exercise gallops at Greyville this morning. The July gallops are a condition of entry and a large crowd turned out in some very balmy winter weather to watch their big race fancies in action. However, at this stage of their preparation most are fully wound up and not much can be read into the gallops although there were a few standouts.

Wylie Hall (Nkosi Hlophe)

Top weight Futura looked a picture in the paddock and although asked to do very little by big race rider Sean Cormack, he strode out beautifully and he looks fine tuned for next Saturday.

The Conglomerate was an enthusiastic worker on the poly and pulled Anton Marcus through nicely. The Aussie-bred colt has it all to do from 20 draw and apprentice Chad Schofield will be given a baptism of fire in what is often a rough race. However, Schofield will have two rides in preceding races to give him a feel for the track.

Mike de Kock’s two fillies, Majmu and Pine Princess, moved smoothly on the poly track and look in prime condition.

The Conglomerate (Nkosi Hlophe)

Mike Bass sent out Helderbeg Blue in cheek pieces for the first time as the gelding can be something of a handful. “I sent him out for a walk in them yesterday and he seemed Ok so we will see how he goes in them today.” The gelding worked up nicely alongside companion Night Trip in what was a pleasing bit of work.

Ice Machine was one of the few runners to be given a good workout. Donovan Dillion, who has his first ride in the race, sent Charles Laird’s runner from the 1400 m mark and worked the last 400m in a solid 21.51 seconds.

Wylie Hall moved smoothly under his big race rider Bernard Fayd’Herbe without being asked to extend and Weiho Marwing was all smiles after the gallop.

The fastest 400m to finish time was set by Marwing’s reserve runner Mac De Lago who clocked 21.34 secs under Fayd’Herbe. He also set the quickest 800m to finish time with stable companion Fulcrum in tow.

By Andrew Harrison

Pictures

1. Halve The Deficit (Nkosi Hlophe)
2. Wylie Hall (Nkosi Hlophe)
3. The Conglomerate (Nkosi Hlophe)

Justin Snaith yesterday dismissed suggestions that second favourite Futura will have problems staying the trip under 60kg in a true-run Vodacom Durban July.

He said: “I have no doubts whatsoever about the horse’s stamina. Indeed if he wasn’t so good that he is in the July he would be running in the Gold Cup.”

The doubts were raised by Sporting Post editor Karel Miedema in last week’s paper when he said: “If I had to take a guess from the pedigree, and also considering Futura’s efforts to date, I’d say he could have a problem with stamina in a true-run 2 200m July carrying top weight.”

Miedema, one of the most knowledgeable people in South African racing, also made the point that Futura’s 120 merit rating has been gained in a succession of slow run races, adding: “Horses just do not improve as much as Futura’s jump from 106 to 120 suggests.

“Last year’s July was the second slowest in the last 20 years, this year’s Queen’s Plate the slowest and this year’s Met the third slowest.”

Snaith also has doubts about the ratings but not just concerning Futura, saying: “The ratings of horses in this country are so elevated it’s frightening. The handicappers seem to think we produce champion after champion every year.

“But I don’t think Futura is the only badly handicapped horse in the race. Majmu, off 55k and giving a Derby winner a kilo, is a big ask – indeed just as much of a big ask as Futura with 60kg.”

By Michael Clower

Picture: Futura (Nkosi Hlophe)