Sheik’s Brashee against the odds
PUBLISHED: June 18, 2015
With a preference for the Scottsville straight and a bad draw of 15, Sheik’s Brashee could be up against it in the POST Merchants…
Sheik’s Brashee was touted for a place by trainer Mike Miller before the Gr 1 Tsogo Sun Sprint over 1200m at the end of May and didn’t disappoint, finishing third despite opening at odds of 50/1, although he was backed into 33/1 on the day.
Miller said the four-year-old gelding by The Sheik was as well as ever before his engagement in Friday night’s Gr 2 Post Merchants over 1200m at Greyville, but he was not as bullish this time. He cited his extreme outside barrier position of 15 and his preference for the Scottsville straight as two negatives. However, he has decided to run him from the draw as he comes up for auction in the Michael Holmes Bloodstock Super Sale in the Greyville parade ring on June 25, where he will be lot 30, so he has nothing to lose.
The middle draws between barrier positions 5 to 8 appear to be the most favourable in this race by trends and the widest drawn horse to have won it in recent times has been Splash Gold who won it from draw eleven in 2011.
On the plus side for Sheik’s Brashee is that the handicapper didn’t alter his 103 merit rating after the Tsogo Sun, in which he received 6,5kg and a 1,75 length beating from topweight Captain Of All.
The Post Merchants weights are decided on merit rating bands and Sheik’s Brashee will only be 0,5kg under sufferance with the best weighted horses.
Apprentice Mathew Thackeray keeps the ride.
By David Thiselton
Sheik’s Brashee (Nkosi Hlophe)
Legal Eagle weighted to romp home in the July
PUBLISHED: June 17, 2015
Legal Eagle has been raised to a merit rating of 120 and will go into the Vodacom Durban July slung in at the weights…
The new Vodacom Durban July favourite Legal Eagle will almost certainly be the best weighted horse on paper that the Vodacom Durban July has seen since merit ratings were introduced to South African in 1999, as the handicappers have raised him eight points to 120 for his 4,3 length romp in the Gr 3 Jubilee Handicap over 1800m on Sunday, and on form he looks to be worth every one of those points.
His July weight will remain unaltered on 54kg, because the weights were published in the week before the Jubilee Handicap. This means he will be 4kg better off than he should be in a true handicap. He will be 3kg better off than he would be if the weights had been set after the Jubilee, because the maximum weight for a three-year-old in the July is 57kg.
Anton Marcus warned straight after Sunday’s race that there should not be a “knee jerk” reaction to Legal Eagle’s easy victory.
However, whichever way it is looked at, the form does not support his caution.
Legal Eagle beat Judicial by 4,3 lengths and Killua Castle by 5,1 lengths when giving them 3,5kg and 1kg respectively. In the month of June three-year-olds receive an allowance of 2kg from older horses over a distance of 1800m, meaning Legal Eagle’s performance was about 20 merit rated points superior to Judicial’s and 16 merit rated points superior to Killua Castle’s.
Wylie Hall beat Judicial by 9,2 lengths in the President’s Champions Challenge over 2000m at level weights and beat Killua Castle by 6,6 lengths in that race when giving him 1kg. His performance was therefore about 16 merit rated points superior to Judicial’s and 13 merit rated points superior to Killua Castle’s.
Wylie Hall now has to give Legal Eagle 4kg in the Vodacom. That amount of weight would be worth four merit rated points considering three-year-olds should receive an allowance of 2kg from older horses in the month of July over a distance of 2200m.
Therefore, on a line through Killua Castle, Legal Eagle should beat Wylie Hall by 4,75 lengths in the July and on a line through Judicial he should beat Wylie Hall by 4,1 lengths.
The above calculations were made by using the official handicapping factor of 2.0, that is the drag effect measured in 0,5kg units of races from 1300-1800m, and the official factor of 1,7, the drag effect measured in 0,5kg of races from 1801-2200m. It also used the official allocation of one merit rated point per 0,5kg of weight.
It can get become very confusing but amateur handicapping can give punters an edge and the website http://www.nhra.co.za/pubs/docs/handicapping/Handicapping_Guidelines.pdf is well worth studying.
The bookmakers initially shortened Legal Eagle to 4/1 after his Jubilee run, but have been now forced to cramp the odds even further to 5/2.
Previous favourite Futura, who is also merit rated 120 and has to carry 60kg, has drifted out to 7/2 and Majmu has gone right out to 6/1. Wylie Hall on 7/1 and French Navy on 10/1 are next best in the betting.
By David Thiselton
Picture: Legal Eagle (JC Photos)
Wylie Hall to retire after July
PUBLISHED: June 17, 2015
Wylie Hall’s stud future looks bright in the hands of Freeman….
Freeman Stallions has secured the syndication and management rights to Wylie Hall. Michael Leaf’s star son of the Australian legend Redoute’s Choice will stand at Vaughan Koster’s Cheveley Stud Farm in Ceres after the 2015 renewal of the Gr1 Vodacom Durban July.
Having won the Gr1 SA Derby in fine style, Wylie Hall grabbed international attention in last year’s Vodacom Durban July and then lowered the top performing Grade 1 filly Majmu’s (Redoute’s Choice) flag in the star studded Gr1 President’s Champions Challenge earlier this year. Wylie Hall has been first past the post in three Gr1 races with career earnings of over R3.6million, 6 wins from 1400m to 2450m and 9 places. He earned a cheque in 10 black type races – 6 of them at Gr1 level. He is being aimed at the Vodacom Durban July (Saturday, July 4) again this year and will then retire.
Wylie Hall was the Racing Association’s Champion 3yo Of The Feature Season in 2013 and he was Horse Of The Season, Champion Middle Distance Horse and Champion Older Horse in 2015.
Wylie Hall’s owner Michael Leaf was recognised by the Racing Association and Gold Circle as Owner Of The Month in May this year. Leaf grew up in a family that loved racing and now, with a string of over 40 horses, he is well known as a gentleman of the game, successful racehorse owner and breeder with a growing broodmare band.
By Freeman Stallions
Derby double could be on
PUBLISHED: June 17, 2015
Hot Ticket will defend his Gr 2 Track and Ball Derby crown at Scottsville on Sunday…
Dean Kannemeyer will send out his Equus Champion Stayer Hot Ticket to defend his Gr 2 Track and Ball Derby crown over 2400m at Scottsville on Sunday and he runs the improving three-year-old Master James in the same race.
Hot Ticket was unlucky not to win this race as a three-year-year old over 2400m at Clairwood when baulked for a run. However, he made amends in no uncertain terms last year, also at Clairwood but over 2500m, when cruising unextended to a 3,75 length win over the useful sort Tribal Dance. He went on to win the Gr 2 Nokia Gold Vase over 3000m on Vodacom Durban July day and then ran a cracking fourth with a welter 60kg in the Gr 1 eLan Property Group Gold Cup over 3200m at Greyville. Since then he has had to have a wind operation due to an infection. Kannemeyer revealed that the surgeon had done an outstanding job because, whereas a horse would normally still make a breathing noise after such an operation, in his case it could hardly be heard.
Kannemeyer said, “He badly needed his first Durban run this season over a mile at Greyville but ran a very good race. I then put him in another mile at Greyville, which is far too sharp for him, against Futura and he was doing nice work late. He has never been a great worker, he just goes through the motions, so he needs races to get him fit, but I now have him ready. He is an old tough campaigner, he knows what to do, and if he runs to his rating he is the horse to beat. He enjoyed Clairwood and Greyville, now we will see if he enjoys Scottsville too.”
The five-year-old Silvano gelding has actually run once over the course and distance, as a still maturing three-year-old, and finished a close up second. He will jump from draw six in the eight horse field on Sunday and his regular pilot, Karl Neisius, will ride him for the first time this season.
Master James three career wins have all been over a mile, although he did finish close to the fair sort Warcraft over 1900m on the Greyville polytrack.
Kannemeyer said, “He is coming on nicely and improving. He was a big backward Jet Master who is only now coming into himself. His mother (Park Lane by Elliodor) was a good race horse (won a Gr 2 over 1400m) but didn’t stay further than a mile. Nevertheless I have always thought that Master James would stay but only the race will tell. This Derby is now an open race and is not so easy for three-year-olds, but he has improved since coming to Durban. The penny has dropped and we will see how good he is.”
Master James will be ridden by Luyola Mxothwa, who has ridden him once before, and jumps from draw four.
He said that both horses were “fit and well.”
Kannemeyer runs the two-year-old Noordhoek Flyer colt Shap Shap over 1300m on the turf in a Juvenile Plate at Greyville on Friday night. He had always thought this horse would stay a mile, so was disappointed when he didn’t seem to go through with it over 1400m last time having travelled well throughout, so is now in two minds and wonders whether he might be a 1200m horse. His only win was in a weak 1000m race on the Greyville polytrack and he could fare better over this slight drop in trip on Friday from a good draw under Bernard Fayd’Herbe.
On Sunday he also expects plenty of improvement from the Ideal World colt Cape Speed, who runs over a much more suitable trip of 1600m in a Maiden Juvenile Plate. He said this horse had been “hopelessly left and was then completely lost” over 1200m on the polytrack at Greyville on debut. Anthony Delpech was seen to be pushing him along throughout as he raced very green. Ideal World’s often surprise when stepped up in trip and find a place at big prices. However, Kannemeyer did conclude by saying that he was the type that might still need one more run to have him exactly where he would like him to be.
By David Thiselton
Picture: Hot Ticket (Nkosi Hlophe)
Cloud ready to burst
PUBLISHED: June 17, 2015
Despite having runners in all three Champions Season features this weekend, trainer Justin Snaith believes that Ash Cloud is the best…
Champion trainer Justin Snaith will have runners in all three of the Champions Season features this weekend and rates his Gr 2 Gold Circle Oaks contender Ash Cloud the best of them.
He said about the four-year-old daughter of Black Minnaloushe, who will jump from a plum draw of two and be ridden by stable jockey Richard Fourie in the 2400m event at Scottsville on Sunday: “Months and months of effort have gone into her run, this is the one we have been waiting for.”
The former Gr 1 SA Oaks winner is only merit rated 95 and has to carry a 2kg Gr 1 penalty, meaning she is officially a whopping 5,5kg under sufferance with the best weighted horse Vino Veritas, but Snaith feels she is up to it.
Snaith also runs the Kahal filly Bountiful Harvest. She finished third in the East Cape Oaks over 2000m and has landed a nice draw with Donovan Dillon aboard, but Snaith said, “It will be very hard for her at the weights as a three-year-old.”
Snaith runs French Revolution and Krambambuli in the Gr 2 Track and Ball Derby, also over 2400m at Scottsville on Sunday.
He sounded more bullish about the chances of Krambambuli and said, “He stays all day but it is a pity they have opened this race to older horses because it is not easy for three-year-olds and I will be impressed if he can do it. But he is very well.” This Black Minnaloushe colt has been working up a storm at Summerveld and Fourie rides from the widest draw of all in the eight horse field.
At the beginning of the Champions Season Snaith was touting French Revolution as a strong Gr 1 eLan Property Group Gold Cup contender, but this attractive New Zealand-bred four-year-old grey colt is currently merit rated only 92 and has his work cut out to still qualify for the big race. Snaith said, “This will be his prep to see if he stays, although I’ve always viewed him as a staying type. He has put on a bit of condition, like we all do in Durban, and has gone a little bit heavy on me although I hope I am wrong.” Sean Cormack rides from a good draw of three.
On Friday night the yard will defend their crown in the Gr 2 Post Merchants over 1200m at Greyville, having won the race with Varikate last year.
Snaith said about their contender Daring Dave, who jumps from a plum draw of four under Fourie, “You will see a big improvement and I think this will be his best run in Durban. In the Gr 1 Tsogo Sun Sprint last time he had to stand for four-and-a-half minutes in the pens, which affected his gate speed, and then his eyes were closed for two days afterwards because he was hit by clods. He actually had to be treated as it caused him to have a temperature.” Snaith had also not been too happy with the four-year-old Dynasty gelding’s preparation leading into the Tsogo Sun Sprint, but said that this time “he has had a proper prep.”
By David Thiselton
Picture: Justin Snaith