Scottsville’s low key eight race meeting today could reward punters who do their homework as it is not an easy card to analyse.

In the first race, a Maiden Juvenile Plate over 1400m, the Lucky Houdalakis yard make a rare raid with Nephrite, who caught the eye when running a 2,5 length second on debut over 1200m at The Vaal to a highly touted horse. He is by Right Approach out of an Equalize mare, so should relish the step up in trip and he is drawn well in three. The connections will be hoping to not fall victim to another touted first-timer as the Mike de Kock yard run an interesting debutant  in Barbarian, who is by Silvano out of the Gr 2 November Handicap winner Alderry. The Sean Tarry-trained Grey’s A Rockin found one too good last time out over 1600m at Greyville and should be right there from a good draw of six. The Doug Campbell-trained Jack The Knife ran well in a strong race when first stepped up to this course and distance last time out and is drawn well. Shali by Bankable is an interesting first-timer.

The second race, a strong Maiden Juvenile Plate for fillies over 1400m, could be won by the De Kock-trained Gain Ground, who caught the eye on debut when green over this trip at Greyville. This Fort Wood filly has drawn well in three. Miracle Rising was an unlucky second in the Gr 3 Strelitzia Stakes over 1100m, when running on strongly after a slow start, and looks likely to appreciate the step up in trip. Swan Dance is also a runner as the form of her front-running 0,75 length second over course and distance last time out was franked over the weekend when the winner Flying Ice came out and beat a good field in the Listed Devon Air Stakes over 1400m at Greyville. However, this time she has a wide draw of ten to overcome. Killer Woman ran a good 2,5 length fourth on debut in the Flying Ice Scottsville race and is well drawn. Roy’s Dollar and Simla can’t be ignored either.

The third race, a Maiden Plate for fillies and mares over 1200m, looks to be a punter’s nightmare. Roy’s Lily has done well in some fair races and could be the one to side with, although she does have a tough draw to contend with. Mullin’s Model has champion jockey S’Manga Khumalo aboard and if repeating her last run over course and distance could go close from a reasonable draw. Mocha Blitz ran on well for fourth on debut from a wide draw in the Mullin’s Model race and should improve, although she has another wide draw to contend with. Roy’s Angel ran well over course and distance last time from a good draw and could be a contender here despite a high draw. Amber’s Drift showed some pace on debut in that same race from the highest draw of all and is now drawn on the right side, so could feature despite needing further on pedigree. Better Than Ever by Dynasty found some support on debut but little went right for her and she finished last. She should improve and could be the surprise.

In the fourth race Blessed Release overcame a wide draw on debut to run a decent third and should go close over the same course and distance from a slightly less tougher draw of 12. Man Of Honour and Corker Stalker should both be runners here from good draws over suitable trips. Green Door, Ocean Pirate and Aguero could also earn.

Lady Cougar ran a good race over 1400 last time and the form has been franked, so from a good draw she could be a runner in the fifth race over 1200m with a light weight over 1200m. Kept Secret should be thereabouts from a good draw and Victory Takeover is interesting stepped down in trip from a good draw having won her maiden at this course over 1000m. Fade To Grey has only been raised two points for her last win so could follow up from a good draw over the same course and distance and Don’t Mention could also be involved.

Noble Star won well when stepped up in trip to 2400m last time out at The Vaal and could follow up over the same race off a four point higher mark in the sixth race. Jay Power choked up last time, but at best should be a runner. Maachaan could improve over this trip.

Dynastic looks to be going places and is the one to beat over a suitable 1400m in the seventh from pole position.

Whistling Duck could improve on turf in the last over 1600m under Anthony Delpech and could beat home Duchess Kate and Cape Grey.

By David Thiselton

Picture: Lucky Houdalakis

The Vodacom Durban July weights will be published today and the Gr 3 Cup Trial winner Punta Arenas has been the most unfavourably affected of the big race’s contestants after the handicapping changes made in the wake of Saturday’s big Gr 1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge meeting. The connections of Helderberg Blue have the most to smile about, although he is still a borderline cases just to make the final field.

Punta Arenas was raised three points for the win and is now merit rated 109, meaning he will be set to carry 54,5kg in the July. Helderberg Blue finished a 2,5 length fourth in the Cup Trial and has been lowered to 107, meaning he will carry 53,5kg and will be 4,5kg better off with the July favourite and topweight Futura for a 2,35 length defeat in the J&B Met. Dynamic was used as the line horse in the Cup Trial but carried 0,5kg overweight so has been raised one point to a merit rating of 101. However, this will not affect his July weight as the minimum weight for four-year-olds and older is 53kg.

Therefore Dynamic will be 2,5kg under sufferance in the big race. Helderberg Blue and Dynamic were both among the five horses just outside the top 20 of the last July log. Legislate’s scratching will provide an opening and they will also likely leapfrog Athina, who was in 20^th place on the last log before trailing in last in Saturday’s Cup Trial. However, this means that as things stand two top 20 July log incumbents will have to be dropped by the final field panellists to make places for Dynamic and Helderberg Blue in the final field of 18.

Futura, Halve The Deficit and No Worries, who finished fourth, sixth and ninth respectively in the Gold Challenge, remain on their merit ratings of 120, 109 and 111 respectively, meaning they will be set to carry weights of 60kg, 54,5kg and 55,5 kg respectively in the July. The Cup Trial’s King Of Pain was unsighted in the last July log and his 4,9 length eighth in Saturday’s Gr 1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge is unlikely to earn him a place in the final field. The handicapper has duly dropped him four points to 110.

The Gold Challenge runner up Willow Magic was raised from 103 to 107 and third-placed Bezanova, who was a neck further back, was raised two points to 107. However, neither of them are July entries. The 1,4 length fifth-placed Night Trip was raised five points from 101 to 106, while last placed Ashton Park was lowered from 108 to 106, but neither of them are July entries either.

The other merit rating changes made in the Cup Trial were to the runner up Wild One, fifth-placed Kochka, seventh-placed Bold Inspiration and tenth-placed Whiteline Fever. Wild One, who was runner up in last year’s Gr 1 eLan Property Group Gold Cup and is on course for that race again, was raised one point to a merit rating of 100. Kochka was lowered two points to 101 and might be hard to beat in the Listed Thukela Handicap over 1600m on July day, which is his new target after being scratched from the big one yesterday. Bold Inspiration and Whiteline Fever were each lowered two points to merit ratings of 99 and 103 respectively.

By David Thiselton

Helderberg Blue (Liesl King)

Cape Trainer Stan Elley will have a final tilt at the Vodacom Durban July before retiring at the end of the season and is likely to be double-handed as Saturday’s Gr 3 Cup Trial winner Punta Arenas and his Gr 2 Betting World winner Dynastic Power are both still on course for the big race.

Punta Arenas pulled up well after his flying finish in the Cup Trial over 1800m at Greyville on Saturday under Ian Sturgeon, but Dynastic Power’s well below par effort in the same race was explained by him pulling up lame on one hindleg.

Elley said, “Puntas was hundred percent sound next morning but Dynastic Power had an issue with his stifle and I have no doubt it affected his performance. But I expect it to respond well to treatment and he will be back in full work in a day or two.”

Elley has a good record in the July. Small yards to have gained a place in the big race can be counted on one hand this century, yet Elley has done it twice. His Badger Land colt Red Badge ran third in both 2003 and 2004.

Passionate racing men Mike Fullard and James Drew were shareholders in Red Badge and own Punta Arenas in partnership with Butch Watson-Smith. Punta Arenas has already had two attempts at the July, finishing a 5,75 length 12^th in 2013 and a 3,85 length 8^th last year. This year there will be no biting of fingernails for the connections before the final field announcement and draw ceremony on June 23 as the six-year-old Silvano gelding’s win on Saturday secured him a place. However, they will be hoping their beloved galloper finally lands a good big race draw. He was drawn 17 and 13 in his first two July runs, while his respective third and fifth-placed finishes in the J&B Met were achieved from draws of 13 and 11.

Watson-Smith is also a shareholder in Dynastic Power together with John Kinsley, Braam van Huyssteen and Okkie Schoeman. The strapping four-year-old Dynasty gelding moved up powerfully around the final turn in the Betting World 1900 on May 15 before staying on strongly to win by a neck from Power King with Punta Arenas a further 1,25 lengths back in third. He was poised to strike from second place in the Cup Trial on Saturday but found nothing and finished 12,8 lengths back. However, Betting World 1900 winners are usually automatic July qualifiers. Dynastic Power’s other career Graded Stakes victory was in the Gr 3 Winter Derby over 2400m at Kenilworth, so he will have no problem staying the July 2200 trip.

Greg Cheyne, who won the July in 2009 on Big City Life, looks likely to remain aboard Dynastic Power and Ian Sturgeon, who finished second on Sushisan in the 2006 July, will continue his productive partnership with Punta Arenas.

By David Thiselton

Picture: Dynastic Power (Nkosi Hlophe)

The Highveld’s sand season has begun and there is an interesting nine race card today.

The meeting begins with a Maiden Juvenile Plate over 1000m. Magic ran an improved race last time over course and distance and has landed a favourable draw of ten as far as trends go. Justash is one-one in meetings with Magic over course and distance and has the eyecatching booking of Gavin Lerena  aboard, but he does have 2,5 lengths to make up from their last meeting. Fidelio has pace and is open to improvement but he is drawn one which is usually the unfavourable side. Corné Spies has a first-timer by Fort Wod, whose progeny love the sand, and one of his half-sisters Societi won on debut as a young two-year-old so there he could have some precocious speed. Another interesting first-timer is the St. John Gray-trained Jam Donut, who is by Jam Alley out of a mare, Sandy Beach, who loved the Vaal sand and was effective from1200-1450m.

The second is a Maiden Plate over 1000m and here Blue Tractor is an interesting runner. He hails from Cape Town where he wasn’t disgraced in some typically strong Kenilworth maiden races and he is by Rebel King meaning he should love the sand. Gaisce Gold showed a lot of pace last time over course and distance after a long rest and was blowing heavily after fading out, but the run would have brought him on plenty and he has a plum draw. His stablemate Victory Silks was only run out of it late over 1200m last time out and could also earn. Winter Soldier shows pace on the turf and on this surface could keep going, although he has an unfavourable low draw. Victories Folly and Commentator are two others who could surprise in this weak race.

The third is a Maiden Plate for fillies and mares over 1450m. Madam Alexis has shown some pace before on turf and on pedigree should enjoy the sand so could win this from a good draw under champion jockey S’Manga Khumalo. Attract The Crowd goes well for Ian Sturgeon and from a wide draw should be running on again. Eastside could overcome her wide draw with her early pace and under Lerena has a chance in a weak field. Her stablemate Hazel Nut showed pace at Durbanville, but usually made breathing noises, so might need it after an eight month layoff, although her ability could carry her to a place from a good draw. Buddy’s Falcon’s best run was over course and distance so she could also feature.

The fourth sees some good horses turning out in a Conditions Plate over 1600m. Form Up was not striding out last time but will be a big runner from a good draw if bouncing back. The Royal Rumba is an improving sort who has taken well to sand and is carrying a low weight from a good draw over a suitable trip, so should also be right there. All The Bids can hardly be separated from The Royal Rumba according to the form of their last meeting and should make a bold bid from pole position on a surface he loves. Captain Haddock has won twice over this distance so is interesting stepped up to it on the sand, which he has taken well to. Lavender Landscape won over course and distance last time despite being slow away and stumbling at the start. Uncle Tommy would win this if at his best but a concern is that in his last two starts he has finished lame and not striding out respectively. Iwo Jima is interesting in his third run after gelding and his first try on the sand.

The fifth is a MR 74 Handicap over 1600m. Nero could be the one to side with despite a wide draw, as he has run some fine races over course and distance. Fort Navidad should relish the step up in trip and should be involved. Lord Windsor won well in his first start on the sand over course and distance when under sufferance so could feature here again for an in form stable. Let’s Go West should take to the sand well on pedigree and should be considered. Dakiwe was very slow away last time and on best form could be a player from a good draw.

The sixth is a MR 80 Handicap over 1200m. River Trip has some good form over course and distance and should settle better than he has been lately in the good hands of Gavin Lerena. Roman Carnival has taken to the sand like a duck to water and if taking his place has a chance again here. On The Nod is interesting on his sand debut, as he should take to it on pedigree, although the question is whether he will have enough pace to be handy from his pole position draw.

Qawaasem is a classy, improving sort and can overcome a two point raise to win the seventh, a MR 86 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1200m. Lady Casey has a batter draw this time and is 1kg better off for a 0,75 length beating by Qawaasem so could reverse the form. Captain’s Diva could also earn.

The last is a MR 72 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1200m. Portrait has a good sand pedigree and was unlucky on the turf over this trip last time so should go close from a nice draw. The pacey Jet Trip should be involved as she has a good sand pedigree and is drawn in pole. Joyful Spirit has been showing pace without finding extra in the closing stages on turf and this should see her taking well to the sand.

By David Thiselton

Picture: Championship chasing Gavin Lerena rides a few with good winning chances at the Vaal today.