The Grade 1 Thekwini Stakes over 1600m is always one of the trickiest races on Gold Cup day as the form is relatively unexposed and the young fillies improve at different rates.
Desert Rhythm is the favourite having won the Grade 2 Gold Circle Golden Slipper over 1400m, despite the race not panning out perfectly for her. She was caught one wide in a handy position and shifted outward at the top of the straight, so she did well to still find an extra gear to win. On pedigree and on that performance this Mambo In Seattle filly should enjoy the trip and has a fair draw.
The classy and unbeaten Dynasty filly Lady In Black had to overcome a wide draw last time over 1400m on the poly and didn’t have cover in her handy position, so did well to find extra in the straight before pulling away in the closing stages. She beat the Listed Devon Air Stakes runner up Sequined cosily by 1,75 lengths. On that showing and on pedigree she will love the step up in trip, but on the downside she has a wide draw to overcome.
Folk Dance is unbeaten in three starts from 1200-1450m on the Highveld and last time she beat the promising and previously unbeaten Aurelia Cotta. Her form compares favourably with Desert Rhythm’s. She has drawn very wide, but Anton Marcus aboard is a bonus.
Meryl ran on well from way back to win the Devon Air Stakes over 1400m and the form compares favourably with the Golden Slipper form. She is drawn wide but Anthony Delpech stays aboard.
Holly Vision went handy from a wide draw in the Devon Air and stayed on well for third and was rallying at the line. She has a plum draw.
Rockin Russian stayed on well for fourth in both the Devon Air and Golden Slipper and on those showings this Seventh Rocky filly should handle this trip, so she should be right there from a good draw.
Flichity By Farr had to be pushed all the way last time over course and distance in a Maiden Juvenile Plate, but produced a strong finish and the form has worked out quite well.
Too Phat Too Fly represents some strong Cape form and is a definite contender although her eight draw is tricky.
Illegal finished just two lengths behind Golden Slipper runner up Let It Flow over 1200m on debut and was then an impressive winner over 1160m. She is a half-sister to Silver Class, whose best trip is 1400m, but she covers a lot of ground.
Mara had the run of the race in the Golden Slipper, but was already beaten when baulked late, although she did rally and could have got closer, so she can’t be ignored.
Frederico’s Dream beat Illegal by 1,8 lengths when making her debut over 1200m and won next time over the same trip. She looks held by Folk Dance on strict subsequent formlines, but she is one of the dark horses as one who is likely to relish the step up in trip and she is well drawn under Piere Strydom.
Just My Style has a nice stride, but her form is questionable.
Sorceress beat an uninspiring maiden field cosily second time out when stepped up to 1400m.
Le Bella Mia has good sprint form, but over raced in front when stepped up to 1300m in the KZN Sales Million.
The selection is Desert Rhythm to beat Lady In Black. The well drawn pair Frederico’s Dream and Holly Vision should relish the step up in trip and are chosen to follow them home. However, it is especially hard to ignore Folk Dance and Meryl, while Too Phat To Fly and Rockin Russian also stick in the mind, while Illegal, who is not the biggest filly but covers plenty of ground, and Flichity by Farr, who has the potential to shine if less reluctant in the running, are dark horses who also make some appeal in a typically tough-to-analyse Thekwini.
By David Thiselton