Stick with Katak – but don’t go in too deep or take too short a price. That is the sensible course of action with Piet Steyn’s star tackling ground far more testing than he has ever encountered before in the Abe Bloomberg Legal Eagle Stakes at Kenilworth today.
The going was officially soft this morning after a further 10 mm of rain during the night, followed by another 10 mm around 6.00am, and there is more to come before the 4.10pm off-time.
When Aldo Domeyer’s unbeaten mount won what used to be the Winter Guineas 18 days ago it was officially good to soft but this is a different ball game.
Steyn expressed his reservations early in the week – “My worry is that there is a lot of rain forecast and I don’t know how he is going to handle a wet course.” The way a horse works on sand can give some indication but the omens are not good (“He is a fair worker on it, not a great one”).
On the other hand the way the colt won last time he looked a Grade 1 horse and far superior to any of today’s opposition. None of them are proven on this sort of ground either and you would feel pretty sick if you deserted him and he outclassed his rivals once again. Odds-on is too short considering the risks (and some bookmakers were quoting 13-20 this morning) but, if you can get odds against, they would be worth taking.
Certainly the statistics favour him. Five of the last seven Winter Guineas winners went on to win the Winter Classic which is the former name of today’s Cape Town highlight. Furthermore the favourite has won four of the last six Winter Classics.
Justin Snaith has the best recent record, winning four of the last 12 runnings, and Silver Host is his main hope. However second string Bayberry is one of the few in the field who has won when it was actually soft (as opposed to good to soft) and his dam was Irish-bred, a good sign if you are looking for horses that can go in today’s ground. At 35-1 he could be worth a few rand each way. Black Knap and Arctic Drift have place prospects.
Don’t be fooled by the name and Listed status of the Cordocelli Olympic Duel Stakes – the race is a handicap. Queen Of Quiet has won her last three and gets the vote although it is worth noting that stable companion Casino Queen has won in genuinely soft ground.
In the Casey Bloomberg Ladies Mile the weights are determined by merit rating bands – not quite the same thing as a handicap – and here the selection is Duchess Of Bourbon. She won last year’s Winter Oaks on yielding ground when stable companion Heaven’s Embrace (joint favourite here) was nearly four lengths back third. Cruise Along has won in the soft but only three ran in that race.
Sing Out Loud may be able to overcome her poor draw in the Winter Solstice Stormsvlei Stakes. Last time she fly-jumped at the start, came from the back and made up ten lengths in the straight. Note also Eva Eileen who had a rough passage that day and Flame Tree who is ridden by Greg Cheyne and runs in the same colours as Sing Out Loud.
By Michael Clower
Featured Image: Katak (Liesl King)
