Last Saturday was a defining moment for many Vodacom Durban July hopefuls as indicated by the latest July log that was issued on Tuesday and it’s another big day at Greyville on Saturday.

Last Saturday, Rocketball and Banner Hill fell by the wayside after disappointing performances in the Gr3 Lonsdale Stirrup Cup. Orchid Island and Safe Harbour, third and fourth respectively in the Gr1 Woolavington 2000, did just enough to keep them in the hunt, although Orchid Island is pretty much assured of a place in the July and at 15 on the log, Safe Harbour also looks relatively safe.

Edict Of Nates and Al Sahem were already shoo-ins but also cemented their place at the top of the ante-post market when first and second respectively in the Gr1 Daily News 2000. Horizon kept his July hopes alive by finishing third but is nineteenth on the log and Pagoda, although down the field in the Daily News, mainly owes his current sixteenth place on the log to his runner-up berth behind Al Sahem in the Gr1 SA Derby.

The balance of the three-year-old hopefuls are pretty much out of the reckoning.

Saturday is the last big day for borderline cases. The Gr3 Cup Trial should prove a fascinating contest with six of the nine runners in the hunt for a July place.

Lightly raced, gelded but winless since beating Rabada in the Gr2 Daisy Guineas last season, Black Arthur has always been at cramped odds in the July ante-post market in spite of there being doubts of him even making the field. He is not among the first 25 on the current log so it’s basically win or miss out come Saturday. However, he was running on from a tricky draw in the Drill Hall Stakes so the signs are good.

Stable companion Elusive Silva looked pretty much a certainty for a place after his impressive win in the Sledgehammer but then ran an indifferent race in the Gr2 Betting World 1900. The winner, Ten Gun Salute, came from behind him in the straight but it may have been a case of the winner enjoying the soft ground and Elusive Silva not enjoying the going in his second run after a lengthy break. Currently borderline at twentieth, a hard-fought place may be enough see Elusive Silva edge into the top 18.

Nebula doddled a recent Pinnacle Stakes on the poly but a win is possibly not negotiable. The same goes for Master Switch who, along with Nebula, is currently in the top 25. A win for the filly Trophy Wife is also not negotiable.

Candice Bass-Robinson’s pair of Nightingale and Silver Mountain are both borderline cases. Nightingale is currently eighteenth on the log while Silver Mountain in the last five knocking at the door. It would seem that only a win in the Gr2 Tibouchina Stakes will enhance their chances but they face some tough opposition better suited to the trip so they face an up-hill task. The Gr1 Garden Province on July day could end up a forced option.

The Gr1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge is loaded with July entries but all six look relatively safe. Lowest on the log of the six is Saratoga Dancer in thirteenth place. Duncan’s Howells’s runner generally flies under the radar but he finished a close-up fifth in the July last year, a head third in the Drill Hall behind Marinaresco last month, and a forward showing here will all but cement his place.

At Turffontein on Sunday, Liege and The Elmo Effect will be looking to improve their chances in the Gr3 Jubilee Handicap. Liege has slipped out of the top 25 on the log but a win here will give the selectors a headache. The Elmo Effect seemed pretty much out of it after a flat last showing.

In all this is a defining weekend as far as the July field is concerned and come Saturday evening any debate is likely to centre around the last three or four spots in the line-up.

The final field and draws will be announced at a function on Tuesday, June 20.

By Andrew Harrison