All eyes will be on the Vodacom Durban July Final Field Announcement tomorrow, which will be shown live on Tellytrack from 13h05.

The July draw ceremony will follow as per tradition. 

The final field announcement brings with it annual disappointment which is often accompanied by criticism of the selection panellists. 

However, it is impossible to please everybody and the particular problem the panellists invariably face is that different criteria can produce a different order of selection. 

An example can be seen in the case of Pack Leader, whose respective seventh place finishes in both the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate and Sun Met have likely been the best performances on paper put up this season by any of the borderline horses, but against him was his lack of a placed run this season (until his recent running on fourth in the Cup Trial) and this was presumably the reason he was excluded from both of the July logs.

He also performed slightly worse on paper (i.e. at the weights) than runner up Tristful when finishing fifth in the recent WSB 1900m. 

Pack Leader did perform better than third-placed Camphoratus in that race on paper but finished behind her too and, furthermore, the latter is a Grade 1 winner and finished sixth in last year’s July. The latter accolade is a big plus in Camphoratus’ favour and was presumably the reason she was placed 17th on the last July log ahead of 20th positioned Tristful, who beat her in the WSB 1900 and performed better on paper too. 

In any case there have been no subsequent performances that can justify Pack Leader leapfrogging Camphoratus and Tristful, so Pack Leader’s chances depend on how important sticking to the log is considered to be. 

The scratching of Eyes Wide Open today made it easier for the panel. 

Hawwaam and Snapscan were two other top 18 log incumbents previously scratched. 

The log 19th-positioned Lady Of Steel was also previously scratched. 

So Tristful who was in 20th place on the last log, looks set to fight out one of the three vacant places with three other horses, Cup Trial winner Capoeira, the Jubilee Stakes winner Divine Odyssey and the Track & Ball Derby runner up It’s My Turn. The latter has proved he retains his ability with two good runs following a layoff of about a year-and-a-half. 

Of the others Roy’s Riviera had some good form earlier in the season, including winning the Flamboyant Stakes and finishing a 4,50 length third to Queen Supreme in the Yellowwood Handicap over 1800m when giving the latter 6,5kg. She was also just a quarter-of-a-length behind subsequent Grade 1 winner Ronnie’s Candy in the latter race receiving just 1kg. 

Roy’s Riviera also beat last year’s July fifth-placed Miyabi Gold in both meetings they had over 2000m last season. However, she was only in the five horses looking in on the last July log and then dented her chances by finishing last in the Cup Trial. She had a chance to make amends in Saturday’s Grade 2 Track & Ball Oaks but unfortunately the race had to be abandoned.

Western Fort finished a good 1,10 length fourth in the Grade 1 SA Derby but then did himself no favours by finishing a 17,75 length eighth in the Grade 1 weight for age Premier’s Champions Challenge. 

Hero’s Honour’s 9,50 length fourth in the latter race was good by comparison but he was among the five horses just outside the top 20 on the last log and nothing has happened since to justify him leaping over those top 20 incumbent’s still standing their ground. 

Sovereign Spirit finished third in the Cup Trial but that was not good enough considering he was receiving 6,5kg from Pack Leader and beat him by only 0,70 lengths.

Victoria Paige has some fair form including an unlucky third in the Grade 2 Gauteng Fillies Guineas and a fourth place finish in the Grade 1 Woolavington 2000. She is also half-a-kilogram less under sufferance than Tristful according to official merit ratings and the weights. However, against her is that she has not appeared on either of the July logs. 

All in all the final field this year is going to be tense for the connections of Capoeira, Divine Odyssey, It’s My Turn and Tristful, unless the panelists choose to ignore the July logs then others will also come into it. The conditions of the July name the winners of the Cup Trial and Jubilee as horses who are given preferential consideration so Capoeira and Divine Odyssey will be surprise omissions. It’s My Turn has a much higher merit rating than Tristful, so it looks as if the latter is favourite to be named first reserve. 

The debate, sometimes acrimonious, which follows the final field announcement has become part and parcel of the July and adds to the intrigue of the great race. 

The hard-done-by also have the chance to prove a point in the Grade 3 consolation race on the day, which is known as the Campanajo 2200, named after the horse who won the first two runnings of the July.

By David Thiselton