David Thiselton

THE Sean Tarry-trained Captain Al filly Victoria Paige has everything in her favour in the Grade 3 Victory Moon Stakes over 1800m at Turffontein Standside on Saturday.

The race is run under merit rated band conditions plus penalties for Grade 1 and Grade 2 wins and females are given a 2,5kg allowance.

Victoria Paige thus comes in 2kg better off than any other horse and 2,5kg better off than any of the males in the race.

Furthermore, she was unlucky in the Peermont Emperor’s Palace Charity Mile last time out. She became very unsettled a second or so before the starter hit the button and was tardily away. In the straight she was making good resolute progress when she was squeezed out badly and this might have cost her a cheque. She now steps up to her probable optimum trip and carries just 51.5kg from a plum draw of three. Tarry confirmed that she had been doing well at home and labelled her a big runner.

His other runner Tilbury Fort is the best weighted male in the field but returns from a 112 day layoff. Tarry said this would be a preparation run for the seven-year-old ahead of the Summer Cup, which he won two years ago, but he pointed out he runs well fresh. The jockey who gets on best with him, Lyle Hewitson, is aboard, while the accomplished Chase Maujean rides Victoria Paige.

Christopher Robin is the second worst weighted horse in the field, being 7,5kg out with Victoria Paige, but he has always struck as one who was capable of further progression as a four-year-old and he now has his third run after a layoff. In his first two runs this season he finished second to the useful Category Four and second to Seven Patriots, both over this trip. He is 1kg better off with Seven Patriots for a 4,25 length beating on their last meeting. However, in their previous meeting Christopher Robin beat Seven Patriots by 0,75 lengths on the same equal weight terms as here.

The Mike and Adam Azzie-trained Seven Patriots was given an easy lead in his last run, when going on to win comfortably, but that is unlikely to happen here because firstly he has a wide draw and secondly his stablemate Orpheus is in the field. However, he did win fluently that day though and is a contender.

Orpheus is a big horse so should be cherry ripe in his third run after a layoff. From pole position and carrying a nice galloping weight of 54kg he is going to be dangerous in his favourite front-running role.

The topweight is Green Haze and he will need to step up considerably from his Charity Mile run when not making much progress from last. 

Astrix has the class to win this. In his only try at the trip he was caught wide from draw 16 of 16 in the Grade 1 SA Classic and not surprisingly faded at the business end. He has another wide draw but will now be ridden by Warren Kennedy, whose skill in placing horses is not matched by many in this country. If he does find cover the Vercingetorix gelding could stay the trip and will be a big runner despite being 4,5kg under sufferance with Victoria Paige.

Imperial Ruby is 3kg under sufferance with Victoria Paige and would prefer further. 

Glider Pilot was in good form earlier this season but has not run since March and at the beginning of the season did not do well in two runs following a layoff. 

Dark Moon Rising did not make any impression when trying to run on from last against Seven Patriots last time and finished 14 lengths back. The blinkers come on to help him bounce back but he is hard to fancy. 

Snow Palace ran a fair race in her penultimate start over 2000m and also ran a good fourth in the Gold Bracelet on Gold Cup day. However, she has a tricky draw, especially for one who likes to be handy or lead, and her lacklustre last run over 2400m puts a bit of a cloud over her. 

Dance Class is 8kg under sufferance with Victoria Paige and although she has progressed nicely this season her last two defeats off her current 92 rating suggests she might not be capable of improving by that much in just one race. 

Victoria Paige is selected to beat Christopher Robin with Orpheus next best and they could be followed home by Seven Patriots Tibury Fort and Astrix.