The Vaal has an eight race card on the outside track on Wednesday and the high draws are usually favourable on this course.

In race 1 over 1600m Stunned is the form choice having been used early last time from a wide draw over 1700m and still managing to stay on for second. The concern here is the unfavourable low draw and a decision will have to be made whether to use him up early again to try and overcome it or perhaps drop him out and attempt to find cover at the back as he looks capable of running on well. Tapenzee was well beaten in fifth on debut over 1450m but was green and was running on well after the penny had dropped. The form of that race looks quite good to date and he should improve, but he does have a tough draw. Seven Sovereigns has a plum draw and might enjoy the step up in trip having stayed on at one pace from an unfavourable draw over 1200m at the Vaal last time. He is a half-brother to an Al Mufti gelding who won twice over 1600m, but on the other hand he is by the speed influence Seventh Rock and two of his other siblings by Var and National Assembly respectively were decent sprinters, so it is not a certainty he will stay the trip. Excellency ran on in eyecatching fashion last time after a slow start over 1600m but he has a tough low draw here. Mr Tinsel also has a tricky draw but looks likely to relish the step up in trip and Gavin Lerena aboard is a further positive. Flying Fool went to the front over 1450m at Turffontein last time and stayed on for a fair fourth so could find the outside rail here with his early pace and being by Daring Bid, who won from 1600-2200m, he has a chance of staying the trip.

In race 2 over 1600m Counterstroke has a plum draw and looks likely to find the outside fence with the slow starting Excalivar outside of him. He is dropping in class and running off a reduced merit rating over an ideal trip, so could be the one to beat. Star Point’s best recent run was over this trip and on formlines a case could be made for him to beat Counterstroke. However, he is drawn one inside of him and will have a tougher task finding the rail. Royal Master has hard-knocking form off his present merit rating and is distance suited as well as having a 1,5kg claimer up so the only concern is his number one draw, although in a field of this size he could get away with being dropped out to the tail of the field.

In race 3 over 1600m Realist found little extra from near the front on debut but looks to be a nice type and stripping fitter here from a good draw she could go close in this weak field. Mike de Kock sends out an Irish-bred filly by the top class sire High Chaparral from a fair draw and she wouldn’t have to be a champion to beat this field. Tennesse Red could improve and if doing so should earn.

In race 4 over 1200m, Khetiwe over raced over 1400m last time so should appreciate the step down to 1200m and has the ability to win this uninspiring event. Nine OÇlock news is drawn on the right side and this improving sort should be running on into the money provided he starts quicker than he has been. Pippi Shortsock has the form to earn here over a suitable trip.

Race 5 over 1200m is a potential stumbling block for punters as it is wide open. Rivarine Forest has a tough low draw but can afford to be dropped out as she runs on well from off the pace. The consistent Our Miracle can overcome her low draw with her good early pace. Freely Forever was not striding out and made a breathing noise last time but if reproducing the form of her maiden win over 1000m here she will go close from a plum draw. Raring To Go won over course and distance last week and off a three point higher shouldn’t be far back from a good draw. Beautiful Shay is well drawn and over a trip on the sharp side should be running on, although she was given a five point raise for her win last time out over 1450m.

Gavin Lerena

In race 6 over 1400m Jubilee Line would prefer a lot further but is drawn on the ride side, has Gavin Lerena up and is easily the best in at the weights so is the one to beat running fresh. Nephrite was most disappointing last season after a promising two-year-old campaign but if bouncing back to form could earn here. Sky High Flyer won well second time out and although officially having a tough task at the weights with Jubilee Line (11kg under sufferance) he could rise above his current merit rating and will appreciate the step up in trip.

In race 7 over 1000m Ronin Warrior has been given a reasonable handicap mark after winning well over course and distance with a second time tongue tie. Tiger’s Legacy is four points higher for his win last time out, but that was his first attempt at this minimum trip for some time, so he has a shout from a plum draw.  Night Editor has won two from three since being stepped down to 1000m and has a chance again here despite a tough draw. Salute The Sun has the ability to win this and has a good draw. Striking Pose is a 1000m specialist and has dropped to a competitive merit rating.

In race 8 over 1000m the one to beat could be Wanted Man who made a good debut over course and distance and is well drawn. Flight Mode has a big shout too from a good draw over a suitable trip with Gavin Lerena up. Alpine Glacier, a first-timer by Var, is a full-brother to the speedy Valberg, who won easily on his debut over this course and distance, so Andrew Fortune is an interesting booking. Edgbaston could do well if reproducing the form of his penultimate start and he has every chance of doing so from a plum draw. Prince Of Savoy has speed and should be involved here. Miesque’s Rumba ran a fair race last time over this trip and if this slow starter is dropped to the back from a low draw he could earn.

David Thiselton